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32. Cyclicity in the economy. Periodic crises and long waves N.D. Kondratiev
Economic growth is not constant and sustainable. In some years, the production of goods and services increases at a high rate, in others it grows in a negative direction. Even under conditions of centralized planning, the growth of the national economy of the USSR was not absolutely uniform. The annual growth rates of the most important macroeconomic indicators fluctuated from year to year. Countries with market economies are subject to even sharper fluctuations.
Periodic fluctuations in production growth are called economic, or opportunistic, cycles.
In this case, the economic cycle can be divided into four phases.
1. Rise phase.
2. Phase of recession (crisis).
3. Phase of stagnation (depression).
4. Phase of recovery.
The reasons for business cycles are:
1) scientific and technological revolutions of a basic nature, causing an increase in innovative activity;
2) a fundamental change in the socio-political system;
3) transformation of the structure of the economy and price proportions.
There are more than a hundred theories that claim to explain the cyclical nature of economic growth. According to supporters innovation cycle theory, economic upsurges are based on transitions to fundamentally new technical principles of production. Another group of theories of economic cycles proceeds from the actual economic explanation of this phenomenon. These include theories overproduction and underconsumption.
There are many types of economic cycles.
Here are some of them:
1) sectoral - lasting from a week to several years, associated with the specifics of creating a product in various industries;
2) small - lasting 2-4 years, associated with uneven reproduction of working capital;
3) large - lasting 8-13 years, associated with uneven reproduction of fixed capital;
4) long-wave - lasting 45-60 years, described by the Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev (1892-1938) associated with fluctuations in government spending.
Let us consider in more detail the theory of long waves by N.D. Kondratiev. In the course of economic analysis, Kondratiev built a theoretical series for each empirical series that most accurately reflected the general direction of development. For each economic indicator, a series of deviations of the empirical series from the theoretical one was built, which was then leveled using the "moving average" method for 9 years. On the basis of the analysis carried out, Kondratiev established for the period under consideration the presence of two and a half large cycles, the periods of which for all indicators coincide very closely.
The first of the cycles described by Kondratiev began around 1788 and continued to rise until 1814, followed by a decline that lasted until 1843.
The rise of the second cycle continued until the crisis of 1873 and was replaced by a recession until 1895.
The third rising wave continued until the end of the twenties and was replaced by the Great Depression (1929-1933).
The established long waves of the economic cycle, as a rule, are accompanied by the following changes in economic and social life:
1) before the upward wave, a surge of technical inventions is observed for 10-20 years, their application in industry coincides with the beginning of this wave;
2) downward waves are accompanied by a prolonged depression in agriculture;
3) medium cycles superimposed on the down wave of a large cycle are characterized by a longer stagnation, a short-term and weak rise; in the case of superimposition on the upward period of a long wave by opposite features
Authors: Zilbertova T.N., Takhtomysova D.A.
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