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Logics. Scientific induction. Induction by selection (most important)

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56. SCIENTIFIC INDUCTION. INDUCTION BY SELECTION

Scientific induction is an inference in which a generalization is built by selecting the necessary and excluding random circumstances.

Depending on the methods of research, induction is distinguished by the method of selection (selection) and exclusion (elimination).

Induction by selection, or selective induction- this is an inference in which the conclusion about the belonging of a feature to a class (set) is based on knowledge about a sample (subset) obtained by methodically selecting phenomena from various parts of this class.

If in a popular generalization one proceeds from the assumption of a uniform distribution of the attribute P in the class K and thereby allows its transfer to K with simple repetition (Si, S2, Sn), then in scientific induction K is a non-uniform set with a non-uniform distribution of P in its various parts.

When forming a sample, one should diversify the conditions of observation. The selection of P from the various parts of K must take into account their specificity, weight and significance in order to ensure the representativeness, or representativeness, of the sample.

An example of induction by the selection method is the following discussion about a variety of winter wheat sown in one of the regions of Russia. So, when driving along a highway crossing one of the southern regions, it is noted along the way that in several regions (for example, in six) the fields are sown with the same variety of winter wheat. If, on this basis, one generalizes that the same variety is sown in all 25 districts, and therefore in the entire region, then it is obvious that such a popular induction will give an unlikely conclusion.

It is a different matter if the choice of the same number of districts is made not by chance, along the way, but taking into account differences in their location and climatic conditions. If the selected areas are southern and northern, inland and peripheral, steppe and forest-steppe, and at the same time the repeatability of the variety is established, then it can be assumed with a high probability that the entire region uses the same variety of winter wheat.

A reliable conclusion in this case is unlikely to be justified, since the possibility of using a different variety in areas that have not been directly observed is not excluded.

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