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71. STAGES OF DEVELOPING A HYPOTHESIS (VERSION)
Building a version in a forensic study consists of three stages:
1. Analysis of individual facts and relationships between them
The purpose of the analysis is to single out among the many factual circumstances those that are directly or indirectly, explicitly or implicitly, closely or remotely related to the criminal event.
The inferences by which facts are analyzed depend both on the characteristics of the facts themselves and on the nature of previously acquired knowledge. If the investigator resorts to general knowledge, his conclusion proceeds in the form of deductive reasoning. The initial assumptions of such syllogisms are either scientifically proven provisions or empirical generalizations obtained in judicial and investigative practice.
The analysis of facts can also proceed in the form of induction. For example, based on similar features of handwriting in a number of anonymous slanderous written statements, the investigator made a presumable generalizing conclusion that they were all written by the same person.
Generalization at this level solves an important problem: from the set of investigated facts, only those are selected that give grounds for assuming their connection with the crime.
2. Synthesis of facts and their generalization
Synthesis is the mental unification of analytically isolated facts into a unity, abstracted from random circumstances.
The discovery of the relationship between facts, the direction and sequence of this relationship make it possible to restore the entire chain of causal connection, to know those facts that lie at the beginning of this chain and which led to the emergence of all other circumstances. The synthesis of facts into a single system is the main prerequisite for constructing a hypothesis, or version.
3. Assumption
The problematic conclusion is due to the fact that the hypothesis is only partially derivable from the premises. Insufficient justification means that if the premises are true, the conclusion can be either true or false. The degree of probability of a hypothesis is determined in this case by the degree of its meaningful substantiation by facts.
In a forensic study, where versions of single events are built, their probability cannot be expressed as a number, but usually takes on the values: “very likely”, “more likely”, “equally likely”, “unlikely”, etc.
Hypothesis testing. The hypothesis is tested in two stages:
1. Deductive derivation of the consequences arising from the hypothesis. Allows you to rationally build the entire investigation process. The version in the forensic research serves as a logical basis for planning operational and investigative work.
2. Comparison of consequences with facts in order to refute or confirm the hypothesis.
The refutation of the version proceeds by discovering facts that contradict the consequences derived from it. A hypothesis or version is confirmed if the consequences derived from it coincide with the newly discovered facts.
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