Логика. Популярная индукция (самое важное)

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Логика. Популярная индукция (самое важное)

Lecture notes, cheat sheets

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55. POPULAR INDUCTION

Popular induction (induction through simple enumeration) is a generalization in which, by means of enumeration, it is established that a characteristic belongs to certain objects or parts of a class and, on this basis, it is problematic to conclude that it belongs to the entire class.

In the process of investigating crimes, empirical inductive generalizations are often used regarding the behavior of persons involved in the crime. For example: persons who have committed crimes seek to hide from the court and investigation; Threats to kill are often carried out. Such empirical generalizations, or factual presumptions, often provide invaluable assistance to the investigation, despite the fact that they are problematic judgments.

Popular induction defines the first steps in the development of scientific knowledge. Any science begins with empirical research - observation of the relevant objects in order to describe them, classify them, identify stable connections, relationships and dependencies. The first generalizations in science are due to the simplest inductive conclusions through a simple enumeration of recurring features. They perform an important heuristic function of initial assumptions, conjectures and hypothetical explanations that need further verification and clarification.

In conditions where only some representatives of the class are studied, the possibility of an erroneous generalization is not excluded.

Erroneous conclusions about the conclusions of the popular induction may appear due to non-observance

requirements to take into account conflicting cases, which make the generalization untenable. This happens in the process of preliminary investigation, when the problem of the relevance of evidence is being solved, i.e., the selection from a multitude of factual circumstances only those that, in the opinion of the investigator, are relevant to the case. In this case, they are guided by only one, perhaps the most plausible or the most "close to the heart" version, and select only the circumstances confirming it. Other facts, and above all those that contradict the original version, are ignored. Often they are simply not seen and therefore not taken into account. Contradictory facts also remain out of sight due to insufficient culture, inattention, or defects in observation. In this case, the investigator is captured by the facts: out of the multitude of phenomena, he fixes only those that turn out to be predominant in the experience, and builds a hasty generalization on their basis. Under the influence of this illusion, further observations not only do not expect, but also do not admit the possibility of contradictory cases.

Erroneous inductive conclusions can appear not only as a result of delusion, but also as a result of unscrupulous, biased generalization, when contradictory cases are deliberately ignored or hidden. Such imaginary inductive generalizations are used as gimmicks.

Incorrectly constructed inductive generalizations often underlie various kinds of superstitions, ignorant beliefs and signs like the "evil eye", "good" and "bad" dreams, a black cat that crossed the road, etc.

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