Innovation management. Definition and types of forecasts (most important)

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Innovation management. Definition and types of forecasts (most important)

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58. DEFINITION AND TYPES OF FORECASTS

A forecast is a conclusion based on a special study about the future development and outcome of a phenomenon, event, or indicator.

The following types of forecasts can be distinguished:

▪ search engine;

▪ normative;

▪ forecast based on trend analysis. The creation of innovation forecast models is often based on the relationship between the rate of innovation in a given area and factors such as the volume of information flow, the level of research funding, the number of personnel engaged in research, etc.

The search forecast is a forecast that answers questions like: "What would happen if ...", which can be combined with each other and called a chain of assumptions, since they are conditionally conjectural in nature. An example of such a forecast is a trend - this is the direction in which the development of a phenomenon takes place.

Forecasting the effectiveness of innovations is based on an analysis of the ratio of expected costs and expected benefits from the use of innovation.

A normative forecast is a target prediction. The essence lies in the fact that such a forecast purposefully causes any action. For example, advertising.

When calculating such a forecast, it is necessary to take into account and very carefully calculate such conditions as costs, markets, compatibility with the general goals of the direct investor, as well as issues of image and prestige.

Innovation forecasting is an attempt to determine the course of events in the future based on what has already happened in the past. This fact indicates that all forecasting methods are based on trend analysis.

Consider the hierarchy of types of trends:

1) assumption - the presence of a possible correlation dependence of any innovation on the observed trends;

2) metaphor, or analogy, - means identifying common features of similarity in two objects or processes;

3) quasi-model (i.e. not a real model). It sits between a metaphor and an empirical model (the real model). With this model, you can check the qualitative forecasts or forecasts of the progress of any process;

4) an empirical model - a model based on experience, predicts the future with the help of a mathematical relationship consistent with empirically found parameters;

5) An analytical model means predicting and explaining the sequence of an event using fundamental laws that have a wide range of applications. The accuracy of any forecast depends primarily on the completeness of the incoming information. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen information flows in order to foresee emerging changes in the external environment in time and thereby build a more accurate forecast.

Authors: Evgrafova I.Yu., Krasnikova E.O.

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