Innovation management. Forecasting innovation provision (most important)

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Innovation management. Forecasting innovation provision (most important)

Lecture notes, cheat sheets

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59. FORECASTING INNOVATION PROVISION

The innovation process management system requires the performance of special calculations related to the development of forecasts.

A forecast is a comprehensive probabilistic assessment of the content, directions, volumes and methods of the future development of innovations in various fields. The main function of forecasting is to find the most effective ways of developing innovative objects on the basis of an exhaustive analysis and study of the directions of change.

In the innovation process management system, the forecast provides a solution to the following problems:

1) determining potential goals and the most profitable ways of developing the subject of the forecast;

2) assessment of the social and economic results of the implementation of all potential options for the development of predicted items;

3) determining the actions required to ensure all options for the development of the subject of the forecast;

4) assessment of resources to ensure the planned action programs.

The forecast reduces the number of development options when drawing up a plan, increases the depth and quality of the plan's validity, determines the final goals and conditions for its implementation, models the available ways and measures for the development of the plan, i.e., serves to justify. Forecasting can also be used to determine the expected consequences of the implementation of planned decisions.

The need to develop various types of forecasts is determined by the diversity of the innovation management object.

Forecasts vary by:

1) the nature of the objects;

2) content;

3) forecasting period;

4) scale and degree of complexity;

5) level of development.

They also share forecasts by topics and levels of development:

1) the level of the country and regions, various areas of science and technology, industry, individual types and elements of technology;

2) modeling of individual parameters and characteristics.

All this ensures the interaction of forecasts at all levels of management and in various fields of science and technology.

Forecasting methods include more than 130 different methods. They fall into three main categories: forecasting based on extrapolations; expert forecasting methods; modeling methods.

Extrapolation methods are an analysis of changes in individual properties of an object in the past and the reasons that caused these changes. Based on these methods, they draw conclusions about the development in the future. Extrapolation is a quantitative forecasting method.

To predict the qualitative characteristics, the method of expert assessments is used, when, based on the analysis of specialists, conclusions are drawn about the development paths.

The most promising approach is the modeling of processes based on similar development models. The following forecast models are used: logical, informational and mathematical.

Authors: Evgrafova I.Yu., Krasnikova E.O.

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