Life safety. Forecasting and modeling conditions for hazardous situations (most important)

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Life safety. Forecasting and modeling conditions for hazardous situations (most important)

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27. PREDICTION AND MODELING OF HAZARDOUS SITUATIONS

The experience of human interaction with technical systems makes it possible to identify traumatic and harmful factors, as well as to develop methods for assessing the likelihood of hazardous situations occurring. This is the accumulation of statistical data on accidents and injuries, various methods of converting and processing static data, increasing their information content. The disadvantage of the method is its limitations, the impossibility of experimentation and its inapplicability to assessing the danger of new technical means and technologies.

Here stands reliability theory. Reliability is the property of an object to maintain over time, within established limits, the values of all parameters that allow it to perform the required functions. In this case, probabilistic values are used. The basic concept of reliability is "refusal" - violation of the state of the technical device due to the cessation of operation or due to a sharp change in its parameters. The probability of failure within a given operating time is also estimated here. The reliability theory makes it possible to determine the technical resource of a tool - the duration of continuous or total periodic operation from the start of operation to the onset of the limit state.

The possibilities of electronic computing technology make it possible to develop method of modeling hazardous situations, which operates with formalized concepts: an ordered and specially organized representation of the objects under study using various physical and geometric signs. Statistical data on incidents, the structure and patterns of functioning of technical systems are subject to formalization.

For an incident to occur, three conditions must be met simultaneously: the presence of a source of danger, the presence of a person in the zone of action of the source of danger, the lack of protective equipment for a person. The probability of an accident or accident at work can be calculated. When building a tree of the causes of an accident with an analysis of previous events, one should single out random previous events, establish a connection between them, and analyze factors that are of a permanent nature. In this case, potentially dangerous factors that have not manifested themselves can be identified. For complex systems, analysis can be done using the fault tree method, in which the diagram shows events and conditions as logical consequences of other events and conditions.

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Furniture is being tested 17.10.2000

In Nuremberg (Germany), there is a special institute that tests the safety of all consumer goods that go on sale.

There are no data for Germany, but, for example, in the USA in 1997, 411 cases of home injuries related to beds and mattresses were recorded, 373 - to chairs, armchairs and sofas, and 222 - to desks, cabinets and shelves.

To prevent such troubles, in Nuremberg furniture is tested for durability. The chair, equipped with sensors, is fixed on a test bench and subjected to alternate pressure on the back and seat up to 300 times. The pressure force of the pneumatic piston on the seat is up to 140 kilograms, on the back - at least 35 kilograms. In real life, such a chair will have to experience several million such loads during its service life, and you must be sure that it will not let the owner down.

Before the advent of a special test bench, such chairs were tested at the city police department. They were put in the room on duty, where work goes on around the clock, people either sit down or get up.

In another laboratory, the resistance of furniture varnish is tested. One drop of twenty-seven household liquids is applied to the table cover: vinegar, ammonia, lemonade, insecticides, solutions of detergents and stain removers, wine, vodka, vegetable oil and much more. Two hours later, chemists evaluate the results.

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