Criminology. Criminological forecasting: concept, types and goals (the most important)

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Criminology. Criminological forecasting: concept, types and goals (the most important)

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6. CRIMINOLOGICAL FORECASTING: CONCEPT, TYPES AND OBJECTIVES

Criminological Crime Prediction - necessary for proper planning of the activities of investigators, operatives and other subjects of law enforcement. Criminological forecasting and long-term planning of the work of law enforcement and other bodies is an integral part of their professional activities.

Prediction - the process of developing a probable judgment about the state of a phenomenon in the future.

Prediction - a probable judgment about the development of a particular situation, the course of an event.

In criminology, there are 2 types of predictions:

1) the movement of crime in general and certain types of crime;

2) the possible behavior of an individual.

Crime forecasting should be built solely on the basis of a deep study of the causes and conditions that contribute to the development of crime. In this case, the influence of not only criminogenic, but also positive factors that reduce the level of crime should be taken into account.

Criminological forecasting is subject to its goals, which are usually divided into:

1) common goals:

a) establishing the most general indicators characterizing the development (change) of crime in the future;

b) identifying undesirable trends and patterns and, on this basis, finding ways to change these trends and patterns in the right direction;

2) basic goals:

a) ensuring the circumstances that are essential for the development of long-term plans;

b) adoption of prolonged management decisions;

c) establishing possible changes in the state, level, structure and dynamics of crime in the future;

d) determination of the possibilities for the emergence of new types of crimes and the disappearance of existing ones, as well as the identification of factors and circumstances that can affect this;

e) establishing the possibility of the emergence of new categories of criminals, etc.

Criminological forecasting has its own sources of information, which may include specific statistics from law enforcement agencies, economic, social, demographic statistics, as well as the knowledge of individuals.

Criminological forecasting does not always have reliable and verified information (difficulties in collecting and processing statistical data, as well as the presence of latent crime, shortcomings in accounting for the registration of criminal manifestations prevent this), which is reflected in its results.

In the specialized literature, criminological forecasting is proposed to be divided into:

1) short term - forecasting for up to 1 year;

2) medium term - for up to 5 years;

3) long term - for a period of 10 to 20 years;

4) extra-long-term - for a period of 20 years or more, which is practically impossible to do at present.

In practice, the most commonly used are short-term forecasts of the development of crime.

Author: Selyanin A.V.

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