Logistics. System analysis methods (most important)

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Logistics. System analysis methods (most important)

Lecture notes, cheat sheets

Directory / Lecture notes, cheat sheets

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7. METHODS OF SYSTEM ANALYSIS

The main methods used in the analysis of logistics systems.

1. Scenario Method - is a means of primary ordering of a logistical problem, obtaining and collecting information about the relationship of the problem being solved with others, about possible and probable directions for future development.

Scenario - a predominantly qualitative description of possible options for the development of the investigated logistics object under various combinations of certain (pre-selected) conditions. The scenario in a detailed form shows the possible scenarios for the development of events for their further analysis and selection of the most realistic and favorable ones.

Logistics Panel draws up a scenario plan, which outlines the functional areas of logistics, as well as environmental factors taken into account when setting and solving a logistics problem. Different sections of the script are usually written by different groups of experts.

2. Delphi method. Unlike the scenario method, the Delphi method involves preliminary familiarization of logistics experts with the situation using a model.

Stages of the Delphi method:

1) several experts are asked the same question;

2) each expert develops his own estimates independently of other experts;

3) responses are collected and statistically averaged;

4) experts whose answers strongly deviate from the averages are asked to substantiate their assessments after presenting the averages;

5) experts develop justifications and submit them for consideration;

6) the average value and the corresponding justifications are presented to all experts for the development of the final decision.

3. Goal tree method. Logistics experts are invited to evaluate the structure of the logistics model as a whole and make proposals for including unaccounted connections in it. A goal tree is a connected graph, the vertices of which are interpreted as the goals of the logistics system, and the edges or arcs are the connections between them. This is the main tool for linking the goals of the upper level of a logistics organization with specific means of achieving them at the lower operational level.

In program-target planning (when the goals of the plan are linked to resources using programs), the tree of goals acts as a diagram showing the division of the general goals of the logistics plan into subgoals of various levels.

The presentation of goals begins at the top level of the logistics organization, and then they are successively disaggregated. The basic rule for disaggregating goals is completeness: each goal of the top level must be presented in the form of subgoals of the next level in an exhaustive manner, i.e., so that the combination of subgoals completely defines the original goal.

4. Matrix method. Matrix forms of presentation and analysis of logistics data are not a specific tool for analyzing logistics systems. However, they are widely used at various stages of logistics system analysis as an auxiliary tool.

Matrix - this is a visual form of data representation, revealing the internal relationships between elements, helping to clarify and analyze the unobservable parts of the structure. An example is the periodic system of D. I. Mendeleev.

Author: Shepeleva A.Yu.

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