Logistics. Forecasting in logistics (the most important)

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Logistics. Forecasting in logistics (the most important)

Lecture notes, cheat sheets

Directory / Lecture notes, cheat sheets

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11. FORECASTING IN LOGISTICS

Prediction - the process of obtaining prognostic information. Forecast:

1) a probabilistic representation of the occurrence of events in the future, based on observations and theoretical positions;

2) reasonable judgment about the probability of occurrence of one or more events or about the possible states of the process (phenomenon);

3) judgment about the future period of time.

Forecasting procedure:

1) definition of forecast objects;

2) selection of objects that are predicted;

3) determination of time horizons of the forecast - short-term forecast, medium-term or long-term;

4) selection of a forecasting model (models);

5) collection of data necessary for the forecast;

6) justification of the forecasting model;

7) making a forecast;

8) tracking results.

Forecasting methods - these are various ways of determining the probable development of an event at a given period of time in the future and establishing its volume in monetary or physical terms.

They are usually developed for specific uses, so it is not possible to give a complete overview of all existing methods.

Typically, standard methods with a complex structure are used. The forecasting methods can be based, in particular, on a representative survey and a survey of experts.

The whole set of methods can be divided into the following main groups:

1) logical-economic methods - the forecast is made in the form of logical assessments and judgments based on a comprehensive analysis of its development trends in the past and at the present stage (by the time the forecast was made), taking into account the expected changes in socio-economic conditions and factors (price changes, population growth, restructuring of the assortment, output to the new product market). The forecast is in the nature of an expert assessment. Expert assessments are carried out according to a special procedure, and in no case can one rely on the opinion of one specialist, no matter how experienced and qualified he may be;

2) economic and mathematical methods - are based on the application of methods of mathematical statistics. The most commonly used is the method of economic and mathematical modeling. In this case, the forecast is made on the basis of the implementation of the model, which is a certain system of numerical indicators interconnected in such a way that they reproduce the main connections and patterns of the phenomenon under study;

3) normative methods - based on the use of a system of norms and standards for rational consumption. With this approach, the norm of rational consumption of a particular type of goods for a certain future is taken as a guideline.

Author: Shepeleva A.Yu.

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