Table of contents (expand)
- The concept of planning
- The subject of planning. The essence and structure of planning objects in the organization
- The essence and necessity of business planning
- The role, place and importance of business planning in the management system of an organization (enterprise)
- The need for a business plan for the leader and entrepreneur
- Forms of planning and factors influencing the choice of planning forms
- Requirements for the development of business plans. Information support of business planning
- Structure, functions and content of sections of the business plan. section of the business plan "concept, overview, summary"
- Section of the business plan "description of the underlying enterprise"
- Business plan sections "product description (products, services, products)", "market analysis, marketing and sales"
- Business plan sections "production plan", "organizational plan"
- Business plan sections "environment and regulatory information", "project risks and insurance", "project implementation schedule"
- The concept, economic content, the main elements of strategic planning. concept and classification of strategies
- Goals of the organization (enterprise)
- Goals and strategy for the implementation of projects
- Investment plan (project). Investment cost budget
- Primary documents of the financial plan. Purpose, structure and methodology for calculating the main documents of the financial plan
- Cash flow plan
- Profit and loss plan
- Profit distribution plan. balance plan
- Requirements for the main documents of the financial plan. International Financial Reporting Standards. financial planning technology
- Project financing strategy. Information support, methodology for calculating planned indicators and determining cash flows
- Basic technological processes of business planning. terms of reference and schedule (work schedule) for the development of a business plan
- Types of models used in business planning
- Features of the development of business process models. information technology for business plan development
- Purpose of the analytical system Project Expert
- The main stages in the development of the financial model (budgets) of the business plan. Preparation of the necessary initial information for the development of a financial model
- Competitiveness. Operations. The financial position of the company. strategic plan
- Sales plan and production plan in the Project Expert system
- Definition of a funding strategy. Project financing plan in the Project Expert system
- Effect of Payment Terms, Inflation and Taxation on Calculation Results
- Scenario analysis
- Simulation
- Evaluation and analysis of investment projects. Investment efficiency indicators. Calculation and analysis of the main indicators of the effectiveness of investment costs, taking into account the discount rate
- Payback period. discounted payback period
- Average rate of return. net present value
- profitability index. Internal rate of return
- Modified internal rate of return
- Calculation, evaluation and analysis of financial ratios of a business plan
- Liquidity indicators
- Business Activity Indicators
- Turnover ratios of working capital, fixed assets, assets
- Capital structure indicators
- Profitability indicators
- Investment indicators
- Calculation and definition of risk factors. Factor analysis. expert method
- Sensitivity analysis
- Monte Carlo method
- Project break-even analysis
- Project break-even indicators
- Statistical and scenario analysis. Modeling conditions, calculation and interpretation of the results of statistical and scenario analysis in the Project Expert system
- Making decisions on the need to invest in projects (business plans) based on performance indicators. Making decisions based on the results of the analysis in order to optimize income, costs
47. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
One of the tasks of project analysis is determining the sensitivity of performance indicators to changes in various parameters.
It is necessary to analyze the stability of the project to possible changes in both the economic situation as a whole (changes in the structure and rates of inflation, increased delay in payments) and internal indicators of the project (changes in sales volumes, product prices). Such an analysis is called a sensitivity analysis.
The wider the range of parameters in which the performance indicators remain within acceptable values, the higher the "margin of safety" of the project, the better it is protected from fluctuations of various factors that affect the results of the project.
Investigation of the sensitivity of performance indicators to changes in the discount rate allows you to determine the stability of the project in relation to fluctuations in the financial market and possible changes in macroeconomic operating conditions.
For sensitivity analysis, you need to:
▪ select the main indicators (NPV, IRR, FV, etc.), changes in which will significantly affect the project flows;
▪ analyze when the level of factors changes (changes in revenue, cost, salary costs, taxes, etc.), which indicator will be most sensitive to these changes and which factor has the greatest impact on the model;
▪ check the sensitivity of the selected indicator with the probability of deviations of the first (the probability that the factor will change, i.e. it will become larger, smaller or remain planned) and second levels (if the factor nevertheless turns out to be below the planned level, then with a probability of 60% the deviation will not more than 10%).
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