Table of contents (expand)
- The concept of planning
- The subject of planning. The essence and structure of planning objects in the organization
- The essence and necessity of business planning
- The role, place and importance of business planning in the management system of an organization (enterprise)
- The need for a business plan for the leader and entrepreneur
- Forms of planning and factors influencing the choice of planning forms
- Requirements for the development of business plans. Information support of business planning
- Structure, functions and content of sections of the business plan. section of the business plan "concept, overview, summary"
- Section of the business plan "description of the underlying enterprise"
- Business plan sections "product description (products, services, products)", "market analysis, marketing and sales"
- Business plan sections "production plan", "organizational plan"
- Business plan sections "environment and regulatory information", "project risks and insurance", "project implementation schedule"
- The concept, economic content, the main elements of strategic planning. concept and classification of strategies
- Goals of the organization (enterprise)
- Goals and strategy for the implementation of projects
- Investment plan (project). Investment cost budget
- Primary documents of the financial plan. Purpose, structure and methodology for calculating the main documents of the financial plan
- Cash flow plan
- Profit and loss plan
- Profit distribution plan. balance plan
- Requirements for the main documents of the financial plan. International Financial Reporting Standards. financial planning technology
- Project financing strategy. Information support, methodology for calculating planned indicators and determining cash flows
- Basic technological processes of business planning. terms of reference and schedule (work schedule) for the development of a business plan
- Types of models used in business planning
- Features of the development of business process models. information technology for business plan development
- Purpose of the analytical system Project Expert
- The main stages in the development of the financial model (budgets) of the business plan. Preparation of the necessary initial information for the development of a financial model
- Competitiveness. Operations. The financial position of the company. strategic plan
- Sales plan and production plan in the Project Expert system
- Definition of a funding strategy. Project financing plan in the Project Expert system
- Effect of Payment Terms, Inflation and Taxation on Calculation Results
- Scenario analysis
- Simulation
- Evaluation and analysis of investment projects. Investment efficiency indicators. Calculation and analysis of the main indicators of the effectiveness of investment costs, taking into account the discount rate
- Payback period. discounted payback period
- Average rate of return. net present value
- profitability index. Internal rate of return
- Modified internal rate of return
- Calculation, evaluation and analysis of financial ratios of a business plan
- Liquidity indicators
- Business Activity Indicators
- Turnover ratios of working capital, fixed assets, assets
- Capital structure indicators
- Profitability indicators
- Investment indicators
- Calculation and definition of risk factors. Factor analysis. expert method
- Sensitivity analysis
- Monte Carlo method
- Project break-even analysis
- Project break-even indicators
- Statistical and scenario analysis. Modeling conditions, calculation and interpretation of the results of statistical and scenario analysis in the Project Expert system
- Making decisions on the need to invest in projects (business plans) based on performance indicators. Making decisions based on the results of the analysis in order to optimize income, costs
46. CALCULATION AND DETERMINATION OF RISK FACTORS. FACTOR ANALYSIS. EXPERT METHOD
One of the most important parts of business planning is identification and calculation of risk factors.
The created project is, in essence, a forecast that shows that, with certain values of the initial data, calculated indicators of the effectiveness of economic activity can be obtained. However, building your plans on such a hard-coded forecast is somewhat risky, since even a slight change in the initial data can lead to completely unexpected results. After all, the success of the project implementation depends on many variables that are introduced into the description as initial data, but in reality are not completely controllable parameters. These parameters include the following indicators. sales volume, product price, cost amounts, taxes, inflation rate, etc. All these quantities can be considered as random factors that affect the result of the project.
There are many methods for determining risk factors, the main and most common of them. factor analysis, expert analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo method.
Factor analysis - a group of methods of multivariate statistical analysis, which allow to present in a compact form generalized information about the structure of relationships between the observed features of the object under study based on the selection of some directly unobservable factors. Factor analysis determines the expected risk factors and the degree of their impact on the activities of the enterprise or on the project.
Allocate four main method of factor analysis:
1) method of chain substitutions;
2) integral method;
3) index method;
4) differentiation.
expert method through expert assessments of specialists in this field, establishes the degree of risk of impact on the project/enterprise.
When analyzing project risks, a expert opinion table. The table discusses any possible risks and the level of their impact on the project under consideration. The table is not related to any specific date, industry or economic circumstances. The level of expected risks and their list are formed in accordance with your knowledge about them. To use this table, you must be an expert in the field being studied. Consultants, specialists, preferably independent market experts, form their own, experience-based, opinion about the risks of the project. Then the average value for the listed items is calculated, and the business model is calculated taking into account the strongest risks of the project.
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