Table of contents (expand)
- The concept of planning
- The subject of planning. The essence and structure of planning objects in the organization
- The essence and necessity of business planning
- The role, place and importance of business planning in the management system of an organization (enterprise)
- The need for a business plan for the leader and entrepreneur
- Forms of planning and factors influencing the choice of planning forms
- Requirements for the development of business plans. Information support of business planning
- Structure, functions and content of sections of the business plan. section of the business plan "concept, overview, summary"
- Section of the business plan "description of the underlying enterprise"
- Business plan sections "product description (products, services, products)", "market analysis, marketing and sales"
- Business plan sections "production plan", "organizational plan"
- Business plan sections "environment and regulatory information", "project risks and insurance", "project implementation schedule"
- The concept, economic content, the main elements of strategic planning. concept and classification of strategies
- Goals of the organization (enterprise)
- Goals and strategy for the implementation of projects
- Investment plan (project). Investment cost budget
- Primary documents of the financial plan. Purpose, structure and methodology for calculating the main documents of the financial plan
- Cash flow plan
- Profit and loss plan
- Profit distribution plan. balance plan
- Requirements for the main documents of the financial plan. International Financial Reporting Standards. financial planning technology
- Project financing strategy. Information support, methodology for calculating planned indicators and determining cash flows
- Basic technological processes of business planning. terms of reference and schedule (work schedule) for the development of a business plan
- Types of models used in business planning
- Features of the development of business process models. information technology for business plan development
- Purpose of the analytical system Project Expert
- The main stages in the development of the financial model (budgets) of the business plan. Preparation of the necessary initial information for the development of a financial model
- Competitiveness. Operations. The financial position of the company. strategic plan
- Sales plan and production plan in the Project Expert system
- Definition of a funding strategy. Project financing plan in the Project Expert system
- Effect of Payment Terms, Inflation and Taxation on Calculation Results
- Scenario analysis
- Simulation
- Evaluation and analysis of investment projects. Investment efficiency indicators. Calculation and analysis of the main indicators of the effectiveness of investment costs, taking into account the discount rate
- Payback period. discounted payback period
- Average rate of return. net present value
- profitability index. Internal rate of return
- Modified internal rate of return
- Calculation, evaluation and analysis of financial ratios of a business plan
- Liquidity indicators
- Business Activity Indicators
- Turnover ratios of working capital, fixed assets, assets
- Capital structure indicators
- Profitability indicators
- Investment indicators
- Calculation and definition of risk factors. Factor analysis. expert method
- Sensitivity analysis
- Monte Carlo method
- Project break-even analysis
- Project break-even indicators
- Statistical and scenario analysis. Modeling conditions, calculation and interpretation of the results of statistical and scenario analysis in the Project Expert system
- Making decisions on the need to invest in projects (business plans) based on performance indicators. Making decisions based on the results of the analysis in order to optimize income, costs
51. STATISTICAL AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS. SIMULATION OF CONDITIONS, CALCULATION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS OF STATISTICAL AND SCENARIAN ANALYSIS IN THE PROJECT EXPERT SYSTEM
Statistical and scenario analyzes can be used to develop business plans.
Scenario analysis allows you to simulate several scenarios for the development of the project (company). A business plan usually includes three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. Although several dozen scenarios can be developed, their quantity and quality depend on the need to simulate the development of events and financial indicators when various key parameters change.
The Project Expert program allows you to create several options for the development of events, taking into account the risks. The conservative scenario is taken without taking into account risk factors, the pessimistic scenario is taken taking into account the impact of risks, and the optimistic scenario is the inverse risk function adjusted for the strategic marketing plan.
To calculate scenarios, various values of key indicators are selected. After creating a composition with a new set of values, they are viewed and the results are analyzed - final indicators that are significant for the project, how much they have changed compared to the baseline scenario and due to what.
Scenario analysis is linked to break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis.
Degree of stability project in relation to possible changes in the conditions of implementation can be characterized by indicators of break-even boundaries (limit levels) of production volumes, prices of manufactured products and other parameters. These and similar indicators essentially correspond to scenarios that provide for a corresponding decrease in sales volumes, prices of products sold, etc., but they are not indicators of the effectiveness of the project itself.
Break-even limit (marginal level) of the project parameter for a certain step of the calculation period is defined as such a coefficient to the value of the parameter, when applied, the net profit of the participant at this step becomes zero.
Statistical analysis is based on the collection and processing of large amounts of data both about the project (company) and the external environment using statistical methods and models.
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