Table of contents (expand)
- The concept of planning
- The subject of planning. The essence and structure of planning objects in the organization
- The essence and necessity of business planning
- The role, place and importance of business planning in the management system of an organization (enterprise)
- The need for a business plan for the leader and entrepreneur
- Forms of planning and factors influencing the choice of planning forms
- Requirements for the development of business plans. Information support of business planning
- Structure, functions and content of sections of the business plan. section of the business plan "concept, overview, summary"
- Section of the business plan "description of the underlying enterprise"
- Business plan sections "product description (products, services, products)", "market analysis, marketing and sales"
- Business plan sections "production plan", "organizational plan"
- Business plan sections "environment and regulatory information", "project risks and insurance", "project implementation schedule"
- The concept, economic content, the main elements of strategic planning. concept and classification of strategies
- Goals of the organization (enterprise)
- Goals and strategy for the implementation of projects
- Investment plan (project). Investment cost budget
- Primary documents of the financial plan. Purpose, structure and methodology for calculating the main documents of the financial plan
- Cash flow plan
- Profit and loss plan
- Profit distribution plan. balance plan
- Requirements for the main documents of the financial plan. International Financial Reporting Standards. financial planning technology
- Project financing strategy. Information support, methodology for calculating planned indicators and determining cash flows
- Basic technological processes of business planning. terms of reference and schedule (work schedule) for the development of a business plan
- Types of models used in business planning
- Features of the development of business process models. information technology for business plan development
- Purpose of the analytical system Project Expert
- The main stages in the development of the financial model (budgets) of the business plan. Preparation of the necessary initial information for the development of a financial model
- Competitiveness. Operations. The financial position of the company. strategic plan
- Sales plan and production plan in the Project Expert system
- Definition of a funding strategy. Project financing plan in the Project Expert system
- Effect of Payment Terms, Inflation and Taxation on Calculation Results
- Scenario analysis
- Simulation
- Evaluation and analysis of investment projects. Investment efficiency indicators. Calculation and analysis of the main indicators of the effectiveness of investment costs, taking into account the discount rate
- Payback period. discounted payback period
- Average rate of return. net present value
- profitability index. Internal rate of return
- Modified internal rate of return
- Calculation, evaluation and analysis of financial ratios of a business plan
- Liquidity indicators
- Business Activity Indicators
- Turnover ratios of working capital, fixed assets, assets
- Capital structure indicators
- Profitability indicators
- Investment indicators
- Calculation and definition of risk factors. Factor analysis. expert method
- Sensitivity analysis
- Monte Carlo method
- Project break-even analysis
- Project break-even indicators
- Statistical and scenario analysis. Modeling conditions, calculation and interpretation of the results of statistical and scenario analysis in the Project Expert system
- Making decisions on the need to invest in projects (business plans) based on performance indicators. Making decisions based on the results of the analysis in order to optimize income, costs
33. SIMULATION MODELING
Implemented in Project Expert Monte Carlo simulation, which allows you to build a project model with uncertain parameter values and, knowing the probabilistic distributions of project parameters, obtain the distribution of the project performance indicators under consideration, as well as a risk assessment (coefficient of variation or uncertainty). If the model is correct, the method gives reliable results characterizing both the profitability of the project and its sustainability.
Preliminary selection of factorsinfluencing the results of the project is performed during a sensitivity analysis.
After the factors of the project are identified, which should be recognized as uncertain, not fully controllable, a range of values is established within which they can change randomly.
When calculating, Project Expert will repeatedly randomly select the values of the factor that affects the project performance, and use it to calculate NPV, as well as other performance indicators.
As a result of the Monte Carlo analysis carried out in Project Expert, the values of the expected project performance indicators are calculated.
Stability shows the proportion of settlements in which the project had a positive Cash-Flow with a deviation within the specified limits of uncertain factors. It should be aimed at ensuring that the sustainability of the project is close to 90-100%. In addition to the good sustainability of the project, one should also take into account the average values of performance indicators and their spread (uncertainty), which characterize the risk of the project. An acceptable deviation should be considered a deviation of 20% from the average.
In addition, Project Expert allows you to analyze the histogram of the distribution of indicators, which clearly reflects the amount of uncertainty.
In the case when the proportion of cases of obtaining a negative Cash-Flow in the calculations of the project model is high, and uncertainty indicates a high risk of the project, the financing scheme laid down in the project should be reviewed and the risk assessment for the resulting options should be re-assessed.
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