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FORECASTING THE CONFLICT
Conflict Prediction - a conscious and reasonable assumption about the possibility of the emergence and development of a conflict. Forecasting is based on empirical studies of conflictology, a thorough analysis of past conflicts and a diagnosis of the current situation.
Conflict Prediction Techniques - accumulated experience of the theoretical and practical component of the scientific discipline of conflictology. Only a high level of development of the scientific industry makes it possible to foresee conflicts and make their forecast.
In predicting conflicts, it is necessary to foresee not only the emergence of a conflict at a certain stage of development of a particular system, but also to determine possible options for the development of a conflict clash. To do this, it is necessary to have systematic data on various types of conflicts. The data includes a complete description of the conflict situation model: subject area or essence of the conflict, structural components of the conflict, functions, spatial and temporal boundaries, stages of development and degree of intensity of the contradiction. After drawing up descriptive models, theorists and practitioners of conflictology prepare explanatory models of conflicts. The development of such models is also possible only after a deep analytical and systematic analysis of conflicts. Explanatory models reveal the main causes of conflict and the driving forces of its development. Thus, the predictive ability of conflictology is formed only after the stages of description and explanation.
The study of conflict for making reliable forecasts includes an analysis of the past, present and future. Existing in some cities of Russia conflictology centers conduct systematic analyzes and develop forecasts of possible social clashes. Particularly relevant are the political and economic spheres of society, as well as ethnic and international issues, conflicts in which can lead to very negative consequences.
Conflict prediction is the most effective way of conflict prevention activities. Forecasting possible future conflicts is one of the main directions in conflict management, since at the earlier stages of the emergence of social contradictions, management is most efficient and least costly in terms of resources and influencing forces. Early identification of contradictions in society, carried out thanks to forecasting, leads to a constructive resolution of the problem situation, avoiding any negative consequences of a possible conflict.
Author: Kuzmina T.V.
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