Business planning. Cheat sheet: briefly, the most important

Lecture notes, cheat sheets
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Business planning. Cheat sheet: briefly, the most important

Lecture notes, cheat sheets

Table of contents

1. CONCEPT OF PLANNING

Planning, being the norm of any entrepreneurial activity, is necessary to anticipate the future situation and to effectively achieve the goal. The planning process involves analysis and decision making and takes time and mental effort. Time is a special irreplaceable kind of resource.

Planning has developed methods, uses a scientific approach, improves and applies new methods and improvements, therefore planning is a science.

Due to the fact that specialists use different methods, forms, types and elements of planning, depending on the specific situation, their knowledge, personal qualities, style and approach, planning is an art.

Planning as an activity is the process of developing actions to achieve a goal.

Planning answers the following questions:

▪ What to do and for whom (product)?

▪ How to do it (technology, action program)?

▪ When to do it?

▪ How much to do?

Planning also helps to evaluate the actions already taken (answers questions: what has already been done, what resources are already available, etc.).

The main objectives of the planning process:

1) optimization of all types of costs;

2) coordination of team actions;

3) anticipation of events in order to reduce risk and unreasonable losses;

4) readiness to quickly respond to environmental changes.

Planning can be carried out with a different time span - planning horizon, which happens:

▪ long-term - 5-10 years;

▪ medium-term - 2-5 years;

▪ short-term - up to 2 years.

Planning must adhere to certain principles:

1. Continuity. It is necessary to constantly plan and adjust plans, as goals and situations can change.

2. Coordination and integration. Coordination covers the interaction of all organizational units of the same level, and integration is necessary for the coherence of actions between units of different levels.

3. Consistency. The enterprise in the external environment should be taken into account in the complex.

4. Scientific. It is necessary to apply scientific methods in planning.

Planning stages:

1) definition of the mission - the main focus of action;

2) forecasting - assessment of the future state of external and internal factors;

3) formulation of goals (desired results). The goal should be clear, specific, measurable (the answer to the question "what"). The ideal is an unattainable goal;

4) programming - creating action plans, programs, work schedules - plans in time sequence (answering the questions "when", "how");

5) budgeting - determining the scope of work and the distribution of resources by type of work (the answer to the question "how much");

b) formation of enterprise policy - drawing up general rules for the activity of the enterprise;

7) formation of action procedures (business processes).

2. SUBJECT OF PLANNING. ESSENCE AND STRUCTURE OF PLANNING OBJECTS IN ORGANIZATION

Subject of planning - the activity of the company, which consists in striving to achieve the main goals corresponding to the mission of the company. Planning is designed to help achieve the goals of the company.

Planning objects are the company's resources and processes.

Key Resources:

1) labor - qualified personnel and unskilled labor;

2) material - raw materials and materials, inventory, work in progress, goods and finished products, etc.;

3) fixed assets - buildings, structures, machinery, equipment, labor tools, intangible assets, etc.;

4) information - information for decision-making, for monitoring the implementation of the implementation of decisions, etc.;

5) financial - money, funds, securities, etc.

Processes are divided into business processes and projects.

Buisness process - a set of different types of activities, in which one or more types of resources are used "at the input", and as a result of this activity, a product of value to the consumer is created "at the output" (M. Hammer, D. Champi).

Types of business processes:

1) the main ones - aimed at an external consumer;

2) auxiliary (providing) - aimed at the internal consumer;

3) managerial - the processes of preparation and decision-making.

Project - a unique process involving the coordinated implementation of interrelated actions to achieve certain goals under time and resource constraints (S. Kovalev). Projects can be directed to the development of the management system; development of existing businesses and creation of new businesses.

Planning objects are measurable in terms of indicators.

The main planned indicators are:

▪ revenue, market share;

▪ cash flows and balances;

▪ financial result - profit / loss;

▪ costs;

▪ competitiveness; changes in product, production, distribution.

3. ESSENCE AND NEED OF BUSINESS PLANNING

The need for a business plan arises when solving the following tasks:

▪ opening a new business;

▪ repurposing an existing company, choosing new types of activities;

▪ preparation of applications for loans;

▪ justification of proposals for the privatization of state-owned enterprises.

Under business planning (business planning) understand the process of developing actions to achieve the goals of the firm (company, enterprise).

Basic form of business planning - drawing up a business plan. In a market economy, a business plan is a working tool for both newly created and existing firms and is used in all areas of business, regardless of the scale, form of ownership and legal form of the company.

Business plan - a business development plan based on strategic analysis and resulting from strategic decisions by business type. Strategic decisions are driven by business objectives that relate to competitiveness and the desired set of businesses.

The main goal of developing a business plan - determine the strategy and the necessary resources to achieve the set goals, otherwise, the planning of the company's business activities for the nearest and long-term periods in accordance with the needs of the market and the possibilities of obtaining the necessary resources.

Other possible goals for developing a business plan: obtaining a loan; attraction of investments; determination of the company's strategic and tactical guidelines; clarification of the degree of reality of achieving the intended results; proof to a certain circle of people of the expediency of reorganizing the work of an existing company or creating a new one; convincing the company's employees of the possibility of achieving the qualitative or quantitative indicators outlined in the project.

The business plan is also used as a tool for conducting business negotiations.

The main purpose of the business plan:

▪ work out decisions on the development of each type of activity;

▪ draw up a plan and schedule of work and actions;

▪ inform interested external parties (supervisory board, banks, suppliers, etc.);

▪ strengthen internal communication, receive support, and provide motivation for implementation.

In preparing the plan, the entrepreneur must be specific about what he wants from the lender or investor and clearly show what he is willing to give.

Along with intra-company functions, business planning has a large importance in determining planning strategy at the macro level. The set of long-term business plans of enterprises can form an information base, which is the basis for the development of national planning policies within the framework of state regulation of the economy.

4. ROLE, PLACE AND SIGNIFICANCE OF BUSINESS PLANNING IN THE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM OF THE ORGANIZATION (ENTERPRISE)

The business plan provides solving strategic and tactical problems facing the enterprise, regardless of its functional orientation:

▪ organizational, managerial and financial and economic assessment of the state of the enterprise;

▪ identification of potential business opportunities, analysis of strengths and weaknesses;

▪ formation of investment goals for the planned period.

The business plan justifies:

▪ general and specific details of the functioning of an enterprise in market conditions;

▪ choice of strategy and tactics of competition;

▪ assessment of financial, material, labor resources necessary to achieve the goals of the enterprise.

The business plan analyzes external (markets and competitors, technology, socio-economic environment, political situation, etc.) and internal factors (products, production and technical base, personnel, finance, etc.).

The business plan gives an objective view about the possibilities of developing production, ways to promote goods on the market, prices, possible profits, the main financial and economic results of the enterprise, determines risk zones, suggests ways to reduce them. In the business plan, both internal tasks related to the management of the enterprise and external ones, due to the establishment of contacts and relationships with other firms and organizations, are solved.

The business plan acts as an objective assessment of the company's own entrepreneurial activities and, at the same time, as a necessary tool for design and investment decisions in accordance with market needs. It characterizes the main aspects of the firm, analyzes the problems that it may face, and determines how to solve them. Consequently, a business plan is at the same time a search, research and design work.

5. THE NEED OF A BUSINESS PLAN FOR THE MANAGER AND ENTREPRENEUR

A business plan can be called the basis for managing not only a commercial or investment project, but also the enterprise itself. A correctly drawn up business plan gives a perspective for the development of the company and answers the main question: is it worth investing in this business, will the business bring the income that will pay off the effort and money spent?

Thanks to the business plan, management has the opportunity to look at their own enterprise as if from the outside. The very process of developing a business plan, which includes a detailed analysis of economic and organizational issues, makes you mobilize.

The degree of participation of the head in the preparation of the business plan important. On the other hand, consultants have knowledge of the most appropriate methodologies for preparing a business plan.

The business plan is also designed to help the leader solve the following main tasks related to the functioning of the company:

▪ determine specific areas of activity, promising markets and the company’s place in these markets;

▪ estimate the costs required for the manufacture and sale of products, compare them with the prices at which the goods will be sold in order to determine the potential profitability of the project;

▪ identify the compliance of the company’s personnel and the conditions for motivating their work with the requirements for achieving the set goals;

▪ analyze the material and financial situation of the company and determine whether the material and financial resources correspond to the achievement of the intended goals;

▪ calculate risks and foresee difficulties that may interfere with the implementation of the business plan. Entrepreneur and manager benefits from planning activities the following benefits:

▪ fundamental study by managers of the company's prospects;

▪ implementation of clearer coordination of efforts to achieve the goals;

▪ determination of the company’s performance indicators necessary for monitoring;

▪ stimulating managers to more specifically define goals and ways to achieve them;

▪ preparing the company for sudden changes in the market situation;

▪ formalization of duties and responsibilities of company managers.

6. FORMS OF PLANNING AND FACTORS INFLUENCING THE CHOICE OF PLANNING FORMS

The form of planning consists of a set of types and methods of planning used in a particular case.

Planning types are distinguished in several ways.

Depending on the flexibility of plans There are two main types of planning:

1) directive - top-down planning with clearly defined indicators;

2) indicative - guiding planning with fuzzy boundaries and the possibility of maneuvering.

Depending on the horizon and level There are three types of planning:

1) strategic - a set of long-term decisions that are developed within the framework of the policy to achieve the goals;

2) tactical - medium-term planning aimed at the implementation of strategic plans. Tasks of tactical planning: selection of optimal means for implementing the strategy, ensuring proportional development and coordination of actions of organizational units;

3) operational planning - short-term planning aimed at the implementation of tactical plans. Objects of operational planning: output and sales, quality control, personnel, inventory, etc.

There are several basic planning methods:

▪ economic analysis - the division of an economic process (phenomenon) into individual components, the study of these parts, their interaction with each other and the overall impact on the entire process. Factors influencing the goal are determined, as a result of which activities can be developed;

▪ balance - coordination between needs and capabilities. Balances can be created for different types of resources: labor, material, etc.;

▪ forecast - planning based on forecasting;

▪ program-targeted - linking goals with resources through action programs;

▪ normative - quantitative justification of planned indicators based on norms and standards. The norm is the regulated value of the absolute consumption of resources per unit of production. Standard - a relative indicator of the consumption of a resource on other resources;

▪ economic-mathematical - application of methods of probability theory, network planning, linear programming and other mathematical methods.

The choice of the form of planning depends largely on the stage of development of the company. If the firm is mature, then the business plans are ambitious. At the initial stage of development of the company, business plans are fuzzy and small.

Other factorsthat influence the choice of planning form:

▪ personnel qualifications;

▪ possibilities for organizing planning;

▪ features of the company's activities.

7. REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS PLANS. INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR BUSINESS PLANNING

Business plan to be prepared taking into account the following recommendations:

1. Brevity - a statement of the most important thing for each section of the business plan.

2. Accessibility in presentation and understanding - a business plan should be understandable to a wide range of people.

3. Not overloaded with technical details.

4. Persuasiveness, conciseness, awakening the partner's interest.

5. Compliance with certain standards - the business plan must be accepted by the reader and convenient in terms of the methodology for its preparation.

The sources of information used in the preparation of a business plan may be different, as long as they provide the necessary and reliable information. As sources of information can be used: marketing or other research; Internet; books; business press and media; information provided by the firm; reference data of specialized banks and databases; information provided by industry associations, international organizations, equipment manufacturers.

In accordance with the UNIDO international methodology for a business plan The following indicators and forms of input information are required:

1) investment costs;

2) production and sales program;

3) the average number of employees;

4) current costs for the total output:

▪ material costs;

▪ labor costs and social contributions;

▪ maintenance and repair of equipment and vehicles;

▪ administrative overhead;

▪ general business overheads;

▪ expenses for product sales;

5) the structure of total costs by type of product;

6) the need for working capital;

7) sources of financing - share capital; loans, etc.

Such indicators and forms of information are suitable when using any of the accepted systems for modeling investment projects.

8. STRUCTURE, FUNCTIONS AND CONTENT OF SECTIONS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN. SECTION OF THE BUSINESS PLAN "CONCEPT, REVIEW, SUMMARY"

The structure of the business plan, which is a fairly complex document, is important.

Sections of the business plan should cover all aspects of the enterprise's activities. Although outwardly business plans may differ from each other, the composition of their sections essentially remains virtually unchanged, although the form may vary depending on the type of problem being solved.

The main information sections of the business plan:

1. Concept, review, summary.

2. Description of the underlying enterprise.

3. Description of the product.

4. Market analysis, marketing and sales.

5. Production plan.

6. Organizational plan.

7. Environment and regulatory information.

8. Financial plan.

9. Project risks and their minimization.

10. Calendar plan for the implementation of the project.

The preparation of a business plan begins with the preparation of a title page, which should provide information about where, when and by whom this document was drawn up. The name of the project is also indicated here, which should clearly and concisely formulate the idea embodied in the business plan.

After the title page, there should be a table of contents that reflects the structure of the business plan. This is the nomenclature of sections or paragraphs. In any case, the table of contents should be clearly digitized, always in Arabic numerals.

In the section "Concept, overview, summary" all the most important things are indicated - information that gives an idea about the project and briefly provides all the necessary data characterizing the project:

▪ title, author, version of the business plan;

▪ owner, project duration;

▪ essence of the project;

▪ purpose of the project;

▪ project objectives;

▪ project indicators (capital requirements, results, effect);

▪ guarantees of return on investment;

▪ elements critical to success;

▪ key factors that may influence the consideration of investment opportunities;

▪ abstract (brief description of the project).

The task of drawing up a business plan and the circle of persons to whom it is addressed are indicated. It is also advisable to note why the need to create this project arose.

In priority order, the directions of the company's activities are indicated, for each direction, target markets and responsible persons are determined. The main goals of the project are formulated, as well as its specific tasks.

9. SECTION OF THE BUSINESS PLAN "DESCRIPTION OF THE BASIC ENTERPRISE"

This section must be present if the business plan is intended for external users and the planned project is carried out in an already existing enterprise (host enterprise).

The section contains the following basic data about the enterprise (firm, company, organization):

▪ name;

▪ organizational and legal form;

▪ form of ownership;

▪ ownership structure;

▪ location (map), transport routes;

▪ postal address;

▪ Internet site;

▪ email address;

▪ management (full name, age, positions, qualifications, brief description, photo, shares in capital);

▪ authorized capital;

▪ brief financial indicators for recent years (turnover, assets, profit);

▪ bank details (ruble and foreign currency accounts, deposits);

▪ licenses, certificates, permits, etc.;

▪ history of development, main stages, main achievements and failures;

▪ enterprise infrastructure (communications, transport, social facilities);

▪ fixed assets (real and movable);

▪ location of the property;

▪ intangible assets, know-how;

▪ level of technology;

▪ working capital;

▪ inventory;

▪ assessment of collateral;

▪ personnel, average number, organizational structure;

▪ description of business processes;

▪ suppliers (location, characteristics);

▪ products;

▪ sales markets (location, characteristics);

▪ relations with authorities, availability of state support;

▪ existing problems;

▪ strategic and tactical goals, plans for achieving them;

▪ advantages and disadvantages, opportunities and threats.

The listed items are indicated in accordance with the needs and goals of the business plan.

10. SECTIONS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN "PRODUCT DESCRIPTION (PRODUCTS, SERVICES, PRODUCTS)", "MARKET ANALYSIS, MARKETING AND SALES"

Under "Product Description" it is necessary to describe the product (products, services, products) and show its usefulness to the consumer.

The characteristics of the product indicate:

▪ functional purpose of the product; - examples of product use; - product compliance with accepted standards; - manufacturability, versatility of the product; - stage of product development at the current time; - requirements for product quality control; - requirements for the preparedness of users (consumers); - requirements for warranty and post-warranty service and support for users (consumers); - conditions of storage and transportation of the product; - opportunities for further development (refinement) of the product.

In addition to the characteristics of the product itself when describing it appropriate to disclose:

1) possible technologies (methods) for producing the product;

2) the cost of a unit of product depending on the volume and method of production;

3) requirements for licensing and certification of product production;

4) features of patent and licensing protection of the product;

5) requirements for research to develop and improve the product;

6) analysis of competitors' products;

7) competitive advantages and disadvantages of the product compared to competitors' products.

In "Market Analysis, Marketing and Sales" highlights ways to achieve the planned sales volumes and bring products to the consumer (for each product). Three main sets of information are described:

1) characteristics of the market;

2) marketing plan (strategic marketing);

3) sales plan (sales).

When characterizing the market, the following are revealed:

a) industry situation;

b) manufacturers (competitors in Russia and abroad) - volumes, prices, shares, product quality, margin of safety, technology level, financial position, strengths and weaknesses, possible reactions, forecasts;

at) markets - volumes, prices, export conditions, history, trends, forecasts, segmentation, forecasts;

d) consumers (buyers) - firms, location, quality requirements, delivery terms, product opinions, forecasts, contracts;

d) specific features of the market (difficulties in access, etc.).

The marketing plan reveals information on strategy and tactics to achieve target places and market share: the overall marketing strategy adopted by the firm; - competitive advantages and disadvantages of the company in the market; - methods of stimulating the growth of sales volumes; - methods and forms of advertising campaign; - public relations and the formation of public opinion about the products and the company; - organization of after-sales customer service, service and warranty service.

The marketing plan includes:

▪ pricing policy, methods and scheme for pricing and establishing the warranty period;

▪ forms of sales organization, product sales scheme, payment terms;

▪ discount policy;

▪ policy for determining inventory levels.

11. SECTIONS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN "PRODUCTION PLAN", "ORGANIZATIONAL PLAN"

In terms of production the main thing is to convince potential investors that the company will be able to produce the required quantity of goods of the required quality at the right time, that is, to organize efficient production. Usually the production plan includes description of the following processes:

1) supply (provision);

2) technological cycle;

3) equipment maintenance;

4) opportunities to improve technology.

In the "supply (provision)" section, it is detailed information about factors of production:

▪ raw materials, materials, components, production services - areas of application, storage and transportation conditions;

▪ sources of raw materials - prices, terms of delivery, transportation, trends, contracts;

▪ energy - needs, sources, availability;

▪ plots of land, buildings, structures, communications;

▪ equipment - models, productivity, needs for workers, energy, raw materials, space, microclimate, docking with related equipment, purchasing conditions;

▪ equipment suppliers - companies, contracts.

When describing the technological cycle, information is disclosed:

▪ about the composition of cycle operations, their productivity;

▪ cycle operation mode;

▪ placement of technological cycles (possibly with a map);

▪ quality control.

When describing the maintenance of equipment, information is disclosed:

▪ about repairs, regulatory maintenance;

▪ on ensuring the operating conditions of the equipment - energy, microclimate, safety.

Section "Organizational plan" is intended to describe how the project (firm) will be organized. The section specifies the following data:

▪ form of project organization;

▪ powers and functions of project participants;

▪ organizational structure of the project (company);

▪ functional structure;

▪ staffing and temporary labor requirements;

▪ stimulation and motivation of personnel;

▪ description of business processes;

▪ distribution of business processes among legal entities;

▪ formed image, mission and public opinion;

▪ information structure of the project (company);

▪ management system and regular management of the project (company);

▪ organization of infrastructure (organization of support).

Infrastructure refers mainly to the provision of the project (company) with the following services: transportation; insurance; audit; training, advanced training of employees; consultations; creation and maintenance of social facilities; supply of electricity and utilities.

12. SECTIONS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN "ENVIRONMENT AND REGULATORY INFORMATION", "PROJECT RISKS AND INSURANCE", "PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION CALENDAR PLAN"

Description of the environment, factors, risks and regulatory information carried out at three levels:

1) the situation in the country;

2) regional situation;

3) local situation.

Within each level describes the situation in the economic; political; social; legislative; environmental areas. Aspects that do not affect the project may be omitted. In the section, it is possible to provide an analysis of alternatives to the project being implemented.

In the section of risk assessment and insurance highlights the problems that the firm may have in the process of implementing the project, and the main methods of protection against potential difficulties. This section contains the following components:

▪ a list of possible risks indicating the likelihood of their occurrence and the expected damage from this;

▪ organizational measures to prevent and neutralize risks;

▪ risk insurance program.

In the section, it is possible to provide an analysis of alternatives to the project being implemented.

It is preferable that the section contains calculations of all existing risks and expert opinion of specialists. In addition, market reviews, articles and newsletters containing information regarding risks can be attached.

Calendar plan is the final form of presentation of information about the project, which characterizes the project from the point of view of managing it as a project.

13. CONCEPT, ECONOMIC CONTENT, MAIN ELEMENTS OF STRATEGIC PLANNING. CONCEPT AND CLASSIFICATION OF STRATEGIES

Strategic planning - analysis, modeling, forecasting of the prospects for the development of a controlled object in conditions of uncertainty of the external environment.

The results of strategic planning - the rationale for choosing a strategy, the development of strategic tools, priorities and current guidelines for strategic management. One of the tasks of strategic planning is the correct organization and use of resources, ensuring their interaction to maintain and increase the competitiveness of the company in the future.

The main stages of strategic planning:

1. Analysis of prospects. It is necessary to identify the main trends and patterns of development of environmental factors, develop methods of protection against dangers, and find ways to use opportunities.

2. Analysis of the enterprise’s position in competition. It is necessary to improve performance results, optimize competitive strategy and increase the company's development potential.

3. Justification of the strategic objectives of the enterprise choosing different types of activities. Priorities need to be established and timed.

4. Strategy implementation, monitoring and evaluation.

It is necessary to identify shortcomings in the activities of the company, to identify new promising activities.

Company strategy is a comprehensive management plan that should strengthen the company's position in the market and ensure the coordination of efforts, the attraction and satisfaction of consumers, successful competition and the achievement of global goals. The strategy development process is based on a careful study of all possible directions of development and activity and consists in choosing a general direction, markets to be developed, needs served, methods of competition, attracted resources and business models.

Basic enterprise development strategies

1. GROWTH (OFFENSIVE). Criteria: sales volume, revenue, market share, growth rate.

Strategic alternatives: market intensification (market penetration, market development, geographical expansion), diversification (vertical, horizontal, secondary), inter-company cooperation and cooperation, foreign economic activity.

2. STABILIZATION (OFFENSIVE-DEFENSIVE). Criteria: income on sales, income on assets, income on shares, recovery rate.

Strategic alternatives: savings, revision of costs, consolidation, revitalization; shifts (loss reduction, income recovery, financial maturity); stabilization (selectivity, balancing in the markets, financial savings).

3. SURVIVAL (DEFENSIVE). Criteria: critical attestation (assessment) of the product and market, financial condition, management.

Strategic alternatives: management system restructuring, financial restructuring, marketing restructuring.

14. OBJECTIVES OF THE ORGANIZATION (ENTERPRISE)

At the stage of setting goals, the mission of the business is transformed into specific results and outcomes that the organization aspires to. Setting goals and monitoring their achievement help track the progress of the organization.

Goals - results and consequences desired for the organization, criteria for evaluating the activities of the organization and its development. All managers of the company should be involved in goal setting. Each division of the company needs specific, measurable goals, the achievement of each of which contributes to the achievement of the company's global goals. In the company it is necessary to create an atmosphere of universal orientation to the result. To do this, the general goals of the organization are specified for each individual unit, and a clear concept of achieving the goal and a motivation system aimed at managing by goals are established.

The following can be distinguished main objectives of the average typical enterprise:

▪ increasing the company's value in the long term;

▪ maximizing profits in the short term;

▪ cost reduction;

▪ expansion of the range;

▪ increase in market share;

▪ introduction of modern technologies;

▪ ensuring stability of salary payments. Some goals may be in conflict with each other, in which case it is necessary to look for compromise solutions.

The factors influencing the achievement of the goal can be represented in the form of a causal chain. For example, this may look like a set of factors influencing the goal of increasing the value of the company.

COMPANY VALUE (aggregate of items 1-3)

1. Gross profit = gross profit per trade + number of trades

2. Storage costs = number of stores per warehouse + costs per warehouse

3. Shipping costs = number of trips per transaction + cost per trip + number of transactions

15. OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGY FOR PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION

Any project is a promising development, which requires a clearly defined goal and strategy for achieving it, i.e., a project implementation strategy.

Every project requires constant monitoring and management, in order to achieve the planned indicators within a certain time frame and taking into account the resources allocated for this. There are many methods and software products for this. In order to begin implementing a project, it is necessary to clearly define the goal of the project, i.e., the required end result that can be presented in the form of a product/service. It is also necessary to develop a project implementation strategy, which will be expressed in a detailed study of all business processes and the identification of reporting segments (stages) and reference points that will be clearly tied to established regulatory coefficients. In this way, a project management matrix will be formed; when implemented, the project will be implemented step by step. The specifics of forming a project implementation matrix are determined by its complexity, nature, amount of funding, duration of implementation, degree of uncertainty of results and many other factors.

Currently being implemented three interrelated approaches to project management:

1) process - provides for the consideration of management as a series of continuously implemented interrelated actions to implement the management functions: forecasting and planning, organization, coordination, motivation and control;

2) systemic - any investment project can be represented as an open system that has close interaction with the external environment. In addition, the investment project, in turn, is a subsystem of the investment policy, and that, in turn, is a subsystem of the enterprise strategy. In this regard, depending on the scale of the investment project, information at the input from the external environment should have different significance and completeness. When leaving the project management system, there may be a result that affects the market share occupied by the enterprise, its competitiveness, credibility, social significance or technical level and cost structure for the production of specific products;

3) situational - is a continuation and variation of the systematic approach. The situational analysis is guided by the fact that the implementation of any investment project is carried out in conditions of internal and external environment of varying degrees of uncertainty, but with a single target orientation - the achievement of the planned indicators of economic or other types of effects.

16. INVESTMENT PLAN (PROJECT). INVESTMENT BUDGET

Purpose of investment planning (design) - show the effectiveness of the use of investments invested in the project.

The main tasks of investment planning:

▪ show the level of return on investment;

▪ calculate the return on investment period;

▪ predict changes in internal and external factors affecting the project;

▪ assess risks;

▪ simulate the future cash flow from the project and bring it to the current time (taking into account the discount rate).

The investment plan and the investment cost budget have one meaning - they are necessary for planning the company's capital investments. The general logic of these documents boils down to the construction of tables, where time is reflected horizontally, and items of investment costs are reflected vertically.

Example of an investment cost plan, thousand rubles.

17. PRIMARY DOCUMENTS OF THE FINANCIAL PLAN. PURPOSE, STRUCTURE AND METHODOLOGY OF CALCULATION OF THE MAIN DOCUMENTS OF THE FINANCIAL PLAN

To draw up a financial plan, the following primary documents are used - sources of information:

▪ management accounting tables with aggregated financial data;

▪ contracts (terms of contracts, terms of payment);

▪ macroeconomic indicators of inflation and lending rates;

▪ tax legislation (tax rates and mechanisms);

▪ information on possible volumes of attracting external financing;

▪ data from marketing research on product sales volumes and prices, data from the strategic marketing plan;

▪ data from suppliers on prices for raw materials, materials, equipment;

▪ data from equipment manufacturers on technical performance characteristics;

▪ labor market data on wages by specialty. It is possible to draw up an operational plan as a source of information. The operating plan reflects the results of the interaction between the company and its target markets for each product and market for a certain period. At the company, this document is developed by the marketing service. The set of indicators of the operational plan shows what market share is occupied by the company for each product and what share is expected to be won in the future. Indicators are determined for each type of product, which allows them to be compared.

Basic documents of the financial plan are made up of a bunch balance sheets - financial results - cash flow. The elements of this bundle correspond to three main types of financial plans (reports) and three main accounting forms:

a) balance plan-report (form No. 1);

b) plan-report on financial results (form No. 2);

at) plan-report on cash flows (form No. 4).

Report plans reflect the essence of the information contained in them, and accounting forms are a form of displaying such information, approved by the Ministry of Finance for reporting enterprises of the Russian Federation.

In fact three main report plans reflect: a) assets in terms of structure and sources of formation of assets;

b) income, expenses and financial results; c) cash receipts and payments, balance and cash deficit/surplus. From the contents of these three main elements of the financial plan, many financial and economic indicators can be calculated. Accounting reporting forms approved by the Ministry of Finance can be used to connect data from the main documents of the financial plan and accounting (reporting), but you cannot rely on them when making calculations, since their structure does not always meet the needs of the enterprise in terms of presenting financial information for making management decisions .

Traditionally, the preparation of basic financial plans begins with the preparation of a cash flow plan, and ends with the preparation of a forecast balance sheet. The calculation method follows from the article-by-article content of the tables.

18. CASH FLOW PLAN

The cash flow plan is designed to calculate receipts, payments and cash balances and shows the deficit / surplus (lack / surplus) of cash, how much cash the company has at its disposal and what is the need for it.

This document is compiled as a summary result of the company's activities for all types of goods and services and can be submitted in two forms:

1) LOCATION OF INDICATORS (ITEMS) BY SIGN (INCOME OR PAYMENT) - first all receipts, then all payments:

Cash balance at the beginning of the period.

I. Receipts (cash inflow): A. From current activities: cash receipts from customers.

Б. From investment activities: sale of fixed assets, intangible assets, construction in progress; dividends, interest from long-term financial investments.

В. From financial activities: increase in authorized capital; credits and loans received.

II. Payments (cash outflow): A. For current activities: production costs of sold products; payments to the budget; payment of interest on loans.

Б. For investment activities: investments in fixed assets and intangible assets; capital investments for production purposes; capital investments for non-production purposes; R&D costs; long-term financial investments.

В. For financial activities: repayment of long-term loans; short-term financial investments; dividend payment.

Total for financial activities. Total payments: current activity balance; balance on investment activity; balance on financial activity; cash balance at the end of the period;

2) LOCATION OF INDICATORS (ARTICLES) BY TYPE OF ACTIVITY: first, receipts and payments for one type of activity, then - for the second, after - for the third: 1. Cash flows from operating activities (expenses for the purchase of goods; expenses for customs clearance of goods; labor costs; UST, etc.).

2. Cash flows from investment activities: for the acquisition and overhaul of fixed assets, including VAT; other capital expenditures; disposal (sale) of fixed assets (assets), including VAT.

3. Cash flows from financing activities: equity; attraction of financing; repayment of the main part of the loan; loan servicing costs.

4. Other expenses, VAT refundable (+)/payment (-).

For companies, the following three types of activities are distinguished:

▪ main - related to the main purpose (mission, goals, product of activity) of the company;

▪ investment - associated with long-term acquisitions, capital investments, attraction and investment of own capital;

▪ financial - related to the attraction and repayment of borrowed financing.

With the help of a cash flow plan with items arranged by the company's activities, a net cash flow is built, which allows you to estimate the value of the company.

19. PROFIT AND LOSS PLAN

To the profit and loss plan (financial results, income and expenses) include:

▪ proceeds (income) from sales;

▪ costs (expenses, expenses);

▪ tax and other deductions.

Based on these indicators, the profit remaining at the disposal of the company is calculated. According to the plan, you can determine whether the activity brings profit to the company. The ultimate goal of this document is to show how profits will change and form.

It must be borne in mind that financial result (profit or loss) - this is just an assessment of the company's performance, which largely depends on the applicable cost allocation rules and revenue recognition rules.

If you prepare a profit and loss plan in the context of individual products, then you can compare different products in terms of profitability in order to determine the feasibility of their further production. The following are the main items of the profit and loss plan:

Revenues from sales

Direct costs

Margin profit

overhead costs

Profit / loss on operating activities

Income and expenses from investment activities (income from investments and from the sale of non-current assets)

Income and expenses from financial activities (interest on loans, etc.)

Other income and expenses

Profit / loss before tax

Income Taxes

Profit / loss before distribution

Payment of dividends (income to owners)

Balance sheet (net) profit / loss

Other profit distribution

Retained earnings / loss

20. PROFIT DISTRIBUTION PLAN. BALANCE PLAN

Profit distribution plan is a logical continuation of the plan of financial results and is necessary primarily for shareholders and for understanding how much profit is distributed among shareholders, and how much remains at the disposal of the company.

The document calculates the profit before distribution, and the profit remaining at the disposal of the company after the payment of dividends.

MAIN ITEMS OF THE PROFIT DISTRIBUTION PLAN

Profit / loss before distribution: allocation for the payment of dividends on preferred shares (in JSCs); allocation for the payment of dividends on ordinary shares (in JSCs); distribution for payment of income to owners (in LLC, etc.)

Balance (net) profit / loss: allocation to reserve and other funds

Retained earnings / loss Balance plan captures the strengths and weaknesses of the company in terms of finance at the moment. Any single element of the balance sheet on its own means little, but when all elements are considered in relation to each other, this allows one to judge the financial position of the company.

The projections of balance sheets for the next period should take into account the original balance sheet, as well as the specifics of the company's development and the results of its financial activities.

MAIN ITEMS AND SECTIONS OF THE BALANCE

1. Assets. A. Non-current assets: fixed assets (residual value); long-term financial investments.

Б. Current assets: stocks of raw materials and materials; unfinished production; finished products; accounts receivable; advances to suppliers; cash; Other current assets. Total assets.

2. Liabilities. A. Own capital: authorized capital; retained earnings; losses.

Б. Borrowed capital (accounts payable): long-term liabilities (debt on government loans; debt on long-term loans); short-term liabilities (debt on short-term loans; accounts payable; advances from customers; settlements with the budget and extra-budgetary funds; settlements with personnel). Total liabilities.

21. REQUIREMENTS TO THE MAIN DOCUMENTS OF THE FINANCIAL PLAN. INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL REPORTING STANDARDS. FINANCIAL PLANNING TECHNOLOGY

К The main documents of the financial plan are the following requirements:

▪ convergence - indicators and items of the financial plan must converge and together create a holistic financial picture;

▪ interconnectedness - financial plan indicators must be interconnected and calculated on the basis of certain initial data (indicators);

▪ compatibility with accounting - financial indicators must be presented in such a way that, based on them, it is possible to create aggregated accounting data;

▪ convenient design - the design should be understandable and clear, and on the other hand, quite professional.

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are necessary for Russian companies in several cases, in particular, if the company attracts foreign investments or plans to place shares. IFRS is also useful for companies that can afford to ensure the transformation of reporting, since IFRS more accurately than Russian standards characterize the performance and financial condition of the company. Such information may be useful for analysis, management decision-making, provision to shareholders and investors.

In the world allocate two main prototypes of MFSO:

1) IAS (International Accounting Standards) - international standards applied for reporting to international stock markets;

2) GAAP (General Accepted Accounting Principles) - US reporting standards used in the preparation of reporting for the US stock market and investors.

Basic principles of IFRS:

▪ valid assumption - means that the company will operate for a period sufficient to fulfill its existing obligations;

▪ constancy - means that the company’s accounting policy, other things being equal, should not change for several years;

▪ accruals - means that income and expenses must be recognized in the periods to which they relate, regardless of the fact of payment.

Financial planning technology consists in the consistent development of sections of the financial plan according to a certain logic: some sections are developed on the basis of data from other sections.

22. PROJECT FINANCING STRATEGY. INFORMATION SUPPORT, METHODOLOGY FOR CALCULATION OF PLANNED INDICATORS AND DETERMINATION OF CASH FLOWS

Project financing strategy consists in the application in a certain sequence of financing schemes based on the individual characteristics of the project and the factors influencing it.

There are three main types of funding strategies:

1) financing from own funds;

2) financing from borrowed funds;

3) mixed (complex, combined) financing.

When implementing the funding strategy the following financial instruments (financing schemes) can be used in combination: sale of a share to a financial investor; sale of a share to a strategic investor; venture financing; strategic alliances; joint ventures, limited partnerships, partnerships on shares; closed (private) placement of securities; public offering of securities (IPO); access to Western financial markets (depository receipts); grants and charitable contributions; research and development agreement; netting; bank loans, credit lines, loans; commercial (commodity) credit; state credit (investment tax credit); leasing; bond loan; issue of a bill; project financing; insurance of export transactions; government funding; franchising; factoring; forfaiting; tolling.

Planned indicators are calculated based on forecast values based on the analysis of future influencing factors, and on the logic of calculation tables. In the practice of financial and business planning, the following targets are used:

▪ investment payback period;

▪ rate of return on investment;

▪ net present value;

▪ level of profitability;

▪ internal rate of return on investment;

▪ group of liquidity indicators;

▪ group of business activity indicators;

▪ group of capital structure indicators;

▪ group of profitability indicators;

▪ group of investment indicators. Cash flows are determined mainly by calculation based on planned sales indicators (prices and volumes), purchases, payment terms, tax rates and payment terms, data on financing, wages, purchase of fixed assets, etc. - all factors influencing cash flows.

Information support of calculations consists in the selection of reliable primary information:

▪ values of variables in calculation formulas;

▪ numerical measurement of factors influencing planned indicators.

23. BASIC TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESSES OF BUSINESS PLANNING. TERMS OF REFERENCE AND CALENDAR PLAN (WORK SCHEDULE) FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BUSINESS PLAN

In business planning, the following technological processes (stages) are distinguished:

1. Collection and analysis of preliminary information.

2. Preparation of terms of reference and schedule for the development of a business plan.

3. Collection of detailed information on all sections of the business plan.

4. Analysis, processing of information, preparation of sections of the business plan.

5. Preparation of a business plan.

6. Control of the content of sections and the accuracy of financial calculations.

7. Preparation of several options for a business plan (depending on the target audience).

8. Printing, flashing copies of the business plan.

business plan customer are legal entities and individuals engaged in entrepreneurial and investment activities, the conditions and results of which are analyzed and forecasted in the business plan.

The developers of the business plan are firms specializing in the field of marketing activities, design, teams of authors, individual authors. If necessary, consulting firms and experts are involved.

There are two main approaches to developing a business plan. The first is that the business plan is drawn up by a hired group of specialists, and the project initiators participate in it by preparing the initial data. Another approach is when the project initiators themselves develop a business plan, and receive methodological recommendations from specialists, in particular from potential investors.

When developing a business plan, terms of reference and calendar plan (work schedule). When developing a business plan by consulting firms, these documents are drawn up in writing and agreed upon by the parties (customer and contractor). When developing a business plan, company employees are allowed not to draw up these documents, but it is necessary to agree between the manager and the specialist on the main parameters defined in these documents.

Technical task should contain a description of the essential requirements, limitations and parameters of the expected result of the work on developing a business plan. The terms of reference may contain a description of the mechanisms of relations between the customer and the contractor.

Calendar plan should contain a list of all stages of the work carried out with the planned dates of their start and end. Key indicative dates for the completion of particularly significant stages are especially important.

24. TYPES OF MODELS USED IN BUSINESS PLANNING

Business planning can be used different types of financial, economic and business models. The choice of a specific model depends on the feasibility and possibility of its use for a given business plan. Many models are designed as a computer program, or, conversely, many programs contain built-in models.

Any applied model must comply with generally accepted principles of economic modeling.

To create a model, it is necessary to select typical aggregated indicators (articles) of reports and detailed indicators (articles) of reports in accordance with the characteristics of the company (project), as well as determine the input parameters, formulas for calculating target indicators depending on the values of variable factors and the form of presentation of the final (outgoing) ) information for the user of the model.

Model input and output may be in different combinations. The main thing is to create an interconnected dynamic comprehensive picture of a company or project for a specified period, to predict financial performance and financial condition. The specified planning period is divided into reporting periods, for each of which you can see the required indicators.

The concept of a business model (business model) in a broad sense, it is used to refer to the method of obtaining profit from the activities of the company.

Formally, the company's business model is associated with the economic component of the strategy, with the ratio of income - costs - profit, with actual and planned income from the sale of the company's goods, with the competition strategy, with the cost structure, income level, profit streams and return on investment. The company's business model is designed to ensure the effectiveness of the strategy in terms of profit. Therefore, the concept of a business model is narrower than the concept of a business strategy.

The strategy defines how the company competes and conducts business (not touching on specific financial results and the effects of competition), and the business model, based on the profit and cost indicators obtained as a result of applying this strategy, ensures the viability of the company. A long tenure in its line of business and stable, satisfactory earnings indicate that the company has a successful business model that confirms the profitability and viability of its strategy.

25. FEATURES OF DEVELOPING MODELS OF BUSINESS PROCESSES. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR DEVELOPING BUSINESS PLANS

Buisness process - transformation of input elements into output or several related works or procedures, in the aggregate realizing the specific goal of the current activity within the framework of the existing organizational structure (S. Kovalev). In fact, business processes are the movement of material, information and financial flows. A special type of business processes are projects - business development processes. A project is a one-time unique process aimed at implementing changes.

Models are developed to manage business processes. There are the following MAIN STAGES FOR DEVELOPING BUSINESS PROCESS MODELS:

1. Identification of business processes:

▪ it is necessary to begin the selection by identifying the types (directions) of activity;

▪ then it is necessary to determine the starting and ending points of the processes;

▪ long and large processes can be divided into several subprocesses;

▪ distribution of processes by type (main, supporting, management, development);

▪ linking the starting and ending points of processes.

2. Ranking of business processes in order to evaluate them according to the following criteria:

▪ importance of the business process;

▪ problematic business process;

▪ the ability to carry out business process changes.

3. Description of business processes, which is carried out horizontally and vertically in the following sequence:

▪ determining the goals of describing business processes;

▪ description of the business process environment;

▪ description of the functional structure of business processes;

▪ description of business process flows;

▪ constructing business process flow diagrams;

▪ constructing diagrams of business process algorithms;

▪ building an organizational structure of business processes.

4. For a correct description, it is necessary to determine the format (standard) of the description. The following description methodologies are most common: DFD, IDEF0, IDEF3, SADT, ORACLE, BAAN, ARIS. Many methodologies are built into the corresponding software products.

5. To build a business process model, it is advisable to use a computer program. The most well-known business process modeling programs are: ARIS; BPwin; BAAN EME; Design / IDEF; Visio; Business engineer (website program www.betec.ru).

There are several manufacturers of financial modeling tools on the Russian market: Expert Systems (Project Expert program); Alt Invest; MS Project; financial analyst calculators (developed by A. Vasina); website www.finmodel.ru.

The developed programs allow to carry out in a short time complex processes of modeling and analysis of investment projects, analysis of the financial condition of the company, and promptly obtain the necessary information.

26. PURPOSE OF PROJECT EXPERT ANALYTICAL SYSTEM

Planning the development of an enterprise requires the use of modern methods and tools that reduce time costs.

Simulation method, which is based on the scenario approach, is effective and adequate to the tasks being solved. Simulation models allow you to play out various options for the development of an enterprise and the state of the external economic environment. With their help, it is possible to test various ideas and assumptions regarding business development, as well as analyze the consequences of their implementation.

The model is presented in the form of cash flows {Cash-Flow).

These approaches form the basis analytical system

Project Expert, based on the UNIDO investment project assessment methodology and which has become the de facto standard in the field of business planning and investment design in the CIS and Baltic countries. By consistently modeling in the system the planned activities of a new or existing enterprise and changes in the economic environment, it is possible to conduct investment design and financial planning, create business plans that meet international requirements, and also evaluate the effectiveness of project implementation. Project Expert allows you to analyze alternative options for project development and choose the optimal path for the development of the enterprise, determine the enterprise's need for funds, select the optimal financing scheme and credit conditions, assess the safety margin of the business, the effectiveness of investments for all project participants, select production, procurement and sales options, and also monitor the implementation of projects.

System allows you to simulate the activities of enterprises of various sizes - from a small private firm to holding structures. With its help, you can create projects of any complexity - from calculating the payback of new equipment to evaluating the effectiveness of diversifying the company's activities. Project Expert does not require any deep knowledge of mathematics or programming skills - you only need to know the described business well.

Working with the system at different stages of development and implementation of an investment project can be described as following basic steps:

▪ building a model of the company and its economic environment as part of its development project;

▪ determining the need for project financing over time;

▪ development of a financing strategy;

▪ analysis of projected financial results;

▪ business planning and creation of a business plan - a document containing a text part, the necessary summary tables, graphs and diagrams;

▪ analysis of data on the current state of the project during its implementation.

27. MAIN STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE FINANCIAL MODEL (BUDGETS) OF THE BUSINESS PLAN. PREPARATION OF NECESSARY INITIAL INFORMATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FINANCIAL MODEL

Financial model - this:

1) model of financial flows and economic indicators of the modeled object;

2) a mechanism that allows you to calculate the necessary financial and economic indicators based on the initial parameters.

When developing a financial model for a business plan, it is necessary to clearly structure all available project data. Any business plan should include a financial model that calculates future cash flows generated by the business 3-5 years ahead, based on current growth rates.

When modeling a business plan budget, there are three main steps:

1. Analysis of primary information on the current development of the company, strategic plan and marketing analysis of the market, on the basis of which financial flows will be modeled.

2. Creation of a set of forecasts of financial statements (profit and loss statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement in accordance with IFRS) for the next five years (at least two years with a step of one month, and subsequent - by years), which will reflect results of the implementation of the strategic plan.

3. Analysis of risk factors and a risk reduction strategy, taking into account which three financial models of the business plan are built: pessimistic (maximum risks and their consequences on the company's flows are taken into account); - optimistic (the company will develop in accordance with the planned pace, without risks); - conservative (the most probable outcome of the company's development).

The process of building an enterprise activity model the most time-consuming, requiring preparatory work on the collection and analysis of initial data. Information is collected according to information blocks:

1. Products and services. 2. Industry. 3. Competitiveness. 4. Operations. 5. Financial position of the company. 6. Strategic plan.

Products and services. In this section it is necessary to systematize the entire product line offered by the company. For each unit of the product line, the cost of production and the estimated sales volume should be specified.

Branch. In the financial model, close attention must be paid to the analysis of the industry in which the enterprise operates, sales markets and the level of competition. This is the most important information on the basis of which it is necessary to conclude whether the company can successfully realize its opportunities in the market. When analyzing the industry in which a company operates, it is necessary to pay attention to trends that may affect the promotion of goods/services in the market.

It is also necessary to submit analysis of the influence of the main forces on the industryinfluencing the state of competition: the ability of suppliers to negatively influence delivery conditions; - the ability of buyers to negatively influence the conditions for purchasing products and/or services; - the possibility of the emergence of substitute products; and so on.

28. COMPETITIVENESS. OPERATIONS. FINANCIAL POSITION OF THE COMPANY. STRATEGIC PLAN

Competitiveness. This is a company's advantage, giving it the opportunity to increase its value at a faster growth rate than its competitors.

The information in this section is necessary to determine the market share and sales volumes of products. For complete analysis you need to answer the following questions: What market share will the company occupy after the period determined by your business plan? - Will new markets be created as a result of your strategy? - Will your company's customers be "received" as a result of the growth of the overall market capacity or will they be intercepted by competitors (specify them)? - What will be the reaction of competitors to the expansion or entry into this market segment? How will they respond to your actions?

operations. This section should contain all possible costs of the company in the production and sale of products: distribution system; - processes of patenting and licensing; - investment in production facilities; - key suppliers of raw materials, materials and components - the level of prices for raw materials, the forecast for the price level in two to three years; - remuneration of employees of the company; - rent.

Financial position of the company. This section includes the company's financial results in previous periods, including the balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. This information is taken from the company’s external financial statements (it is desirable that these statements be brought to IAS standards). This information is necessary for an investor to evaluate how effectively a company has operated in the past.

It is advisable to provide brief comments to the report, from which it will be clear what events affected the financial results obtained in each year presented. Comments should explain changes in sales volume, gross, operating, net income, etc. This will provide an opportunity to understand the volume of the company's financial operations.

Strategic plan. The company's growth strategy is the most important question, the answer to which should be contained in the business plan. What are the expectations for business growth based on, what is the main idea for future development? Do you plan to improve the company's efficiency by introducing new technological equipment or management systems? A strategic plan allows an investor to understand how a company plans to realize its opportunities.

There should be the following information: a description of the company's strategic development plan, portfolio and competitive strategy, growth opportunities and mechanisms for how they can be provided; - description of specific actions that will be implemented in the process of implementing the strategic plan; - a description of the expected effect of these actions on marketing and sales, costs, financing, human resources and production functions.

The strategic plan should align with other parts of the business plan and tie together all the statements made in the previous sections.

29. SALES PLAN AND PRODUCTION PLAN IN PROJECT EXPERT SYSTEM

As already noted, to work in system Project Expert deep knowledge of mathematics and programming skills are not required - you just need to know the business being described well.

System Project Expert Allows for a short time develop a financial model of the company. To describe the project and the company, it is necessary to enter the initial data: the start date and duration of the project, a list of products and services planned for release, the multi-level structure of the company down to each division and product, as well as the financial condition at the time of the start of the project - a detailed description of its assets and liabilities in aggregated balance sheet.

The sales strategy of the company implementing the project should be worked out in detail at the planning stage.

To enter data, select the "Operational Plan" directory. In it, you need to open the "Sale Plan" window, where it is possible to plan the sales schedule and product prices.

To model it in Project Expert, you'll need to enter a list of products, prices for each product, and estimated sales volume. The system allows you to take into account additional information about the impact of seasonality on the price, set the scheme by which the price of a particular product will be formed throughout the project. In the process of developing a sales strategy in Project Expert, time factors are taken into account, such as: the time of realization of the product (service), the delay in payment after delivery of the product, as well as the terms of payment for the product or consumer service (in fact, prepaid or on credit).

When modeling sales, you take into account the volume of stocks of finished products and their shelf life, the percentage of losses in the sale of products, etc. The system also allows you to reflect the costs of advertising and promoting products on the market.

You can evaluate the benefits of each marketing scheme by analyzing the selected marketing conditions.

When modeling the production activity of an enterprise in Project Expert, you just need to enter into the system data on products, their production volumes, on the quantity and cost of raw materials and materials, on personnel costs in accordance with the existing production structure, on total costs - production costs, management, marketing, etc.

System allows to describe production schedule and various types of costs, linking the selected parameters of the financial model of the enterprise with a complex mathematical relationship, for example, when modeling the volume of production of a product, based on the capabilities of the enterprise and the predicted market capacity.

Industrial the plan can be generated automatically by the system depending on the planned sales volumes. Project Expert allows you to establish the dependence of the production plan on other factors, for example, on the capacities of the production equipment used.

30. DEFINITION OF THE FUNDING STRATEGY. PROJECT FINANCING PLAN IN THE PROJECT EXPERT SYSTEM

Any enterprise development project is not feasible without solving the problem of financing. The Project Expert system contains possibility of modeling and choosing a financing scheme. What funds will be required at various stages of the project? Capital requirements are determined based on the data displayed in cash flow statement (Cash Flow).

In essence, Cash-Flow is the main document, designed to determine the need for capital, develop a strategy for financing an enterprise, and also to assess the efficiency of capital use.

The values of the enterprise account balance are presented in the last row of the Cash-Flow table and demonstrate the predicted state of the settlement account of the enterprise implementing the project in different periods of time. A negative current account balance means that the company does not have the necessary amount of capital.

It is important to form capital in such a way that in no period of time the value of the balance of the current account has a negative value. At the same time, it is necessary to adhere to basic principle - capital should be attracted only during the period of time when it is really needed.

It is important to take into account real conditions for raising capital. The Project Expert analytical system automatically determines how much cash will be sufficient to cover the capital deficit in each estimated period of time. When creating a project, you choose the volumes and conditions of its financing: raising equity capital, borrowed funds, government financing, leasing transactions. When describing project financing, the system also allows you to use various combinations of these methods.

Advantage Project Expert lies in the fact that the need for capital is determined taking into account inflation, and this allows you to avoid mistakes in planning the project budget.

It is important that when forming a company financing strategy using equity capital, the system allows shareholders to select the size of shareholdings, taking into account both the terms of their ownership and the required return on invested capital. This possibility is provided by the comparative method of business valuation additionally implemented in the system. To determine the future income of shareholders - dividends and the planned sale price of shares, the forecast value of the company is calculated using both built-in and self-created price multipliers.

Project Expert also allows you to solve the problem of managing free cash generated by a project. You can also simulate your own scheme of the process of placing funds on various terms on deposits or in alternative projects.

31. IMPACT OF PAYMENT TERMS, INFLATION AND TAXATION ON THE RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS

The calculation results are influenced by inflation. It must be remembered that the discount rate is calculated taking into account inflation, therefore, when calculating investment indicators, you need to use net cash flow. In the Project Expert program, the program does this independently.

Module "Inflation" provides input of data characterizing the inflationary factors of the external environment in which the project is being implemented. Since inflation acts unevenly on different groups of goods, services, labor resources, real estate, when developing a project, one should strive to assess pricing trends for each of these components. The Project Expert program makes it possible to build a generalized description of the inflationary environment, in which the largest objects of inflation are identified, or, if necessary, to detail the description of inflation conditions for each element of the enterprise's economic activity.

This dialog provides procedures for entering inflation indicators for five groups of inflation objects that characterize changes in the cost of receipts and payments for the main items of the project. The entered numerical values characterize the forecasted increase or decrease in prices as a percentage of the previous period for each a group of objects exposed to inflation: sales (products or services); - direct costs (materials, components and other variable costs other than wages); - general costs (operational, trading, administrative); - wage; - real estate (buildings, structures, equipment).

At this stage, it is necessary to take into account a certain relationship between inflation and exchange rates. Thus, if the rate of price growth exceeds the rate of devaluation of the monetary unit (changes in the ratio of exchange rates), a situation may arise when prices on the domestic market (for example, in rubles) exceed the level of world prices. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the correctness of the data, especially with long project implementation periods.

Annual R and quarterly r_i the values of inflation indicators are related by the following relationship: (1 + R / 100) = (1 + r / 100) x (1 + r₂ / 100) x (1 + r₃ / 100) x (1 + r₄ / 100),

where R, r are the annual and quarterly inflation levels, respectively.

The calculation results are also influenced by taxation. The enterprise is located in the legal framework of a state; accordingly, it must pay taxes to the state budget. By specifying the taxes paid, percentage and tax base, Project Expert allows you to quickly calculate their impact on cash flow.

Payment terms also affect calculation results. When calculating cash flows for a project, it is necessary to remember that there are some adjustments that need to be made to the already created model. It is necessary to use the principle of reasonableness and reality.

32. SCENARIO ANALYSIS

Scenario Analysis - risk analysis, in which, along with the basic version of the project, several potential options for implementation are considered. In fact, a scenario is a probable event that can significantly affect the integral indicators of the project. Scenarios (variants) are usually based on expert assessments of the forecast of changes in economic indicators (inflation, changes in the tax burden), the economic situation in a particular market (prices, sales volume). In accordance with them, the values of the project factors that are checked for risk are determined, the pessimistic, optimistic and realistic (most probable) options for the project are calculated. The NPV is determined for each of these scenarios and compared with the NPV value of the project's base case.

Scenario analysis is carried out using Project Expert tools. application What-if. A previously prepared project model is used as a base case. In this case, it is not different project scenarios that are compared, but a number of ones created on its basis. Several scenarios - project options are specified by deviations from the base option, and then their indicators are compared with each other.

The What-If-analysis program will calculate integral indicators for all scenarios and provide them both in absolute values and in the form of deviations from the base case.

Also used for decision making graphical display of Cash-Flow and NPV of compared scenarios. Cash-Flow deviations will allow you to evaluate the financing scheme included in the model, including the time of occurrence of a deficit or excess of funds for various options.

Scenario analysis recommended for use in a finite number of scenarios. Often, a real project involves an unlimited number of possible scenarios, the probability of which is not determined, and therefore can be considered the same. To solve this problem, Project Expert uses simulation modeling, which involves a probabilistic assessment of the occurrence of various circumstances.

33. SIMULATION MODELING

Implemented in Project Expert Monte Carlo simulation, which allows you to build a project model with uncertain parameter values and, knowing the probabilistic distributions of project parameters, obtain the distribution of the project performance indicators under consideration, as well as a risk assessment (coefficient of variation or uncertainty). If the model is correct, the method gives reliable results characterizing both the profitability of the project and its sustainability.

Preliminary selection of factorsinfluencing the results of the project is performed during a sensitivity analysis.

After the factors of the project are identified, which should be recognized as uncertain, not fully controllable, a range of values is established within which they can change randomly.

When calculating, Project Expert will repeatedly randomly select the values of the factor that affects the project performance, and use it to calculate NPV, as well as other performance indicators.

As a result of the Monte Carlo analysis carried out in Project Expert, the values of the expected project performance indicators are calculated.

Stability shows the proportion of settlements in which the project had a positive Cash-Flow with a deviation within the specified limits of uncertain factors. It should be aimed at ensuring that the sustainability of the project is close to 90-100%. In addition to the good sustainability of the project, one should also take into account the average values of performance indicators and their spread (uncertainty), which characterize the risk of the project. An acceptable deviation should be considered a deviation of 20% from the average.

In addition, Project Expert allows you to analyze the histogram of the distribution of indicators, which clearly reflects the amount of uncertainty.

In the case when the proportion of cases of obtaining a negative Cash-Flow in the calculations of the project model is high, and uncertainty indicates a high risk of the project, the financing scheme laid down in the project should be reviewed and the risk assessment for the resulting options should be re-assessed.

34. EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE INDICATORS. CALCULATION AND ANALYSIS OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF THE EFFICIENCY OF INVESTMENT COSTS INCLUDING THE DISCOUNT RATE

Having calculated the present future cash flows for the project, it is necessary to understand How effective is the proposed project and is it worth investing in it?. It is also necessary to compare the main investment indicators with data from other projects. Perhaps they will turn out to be more attractive and will return the funds invested in them faster, and most importantly, they will bring higher profits in the future.

Investment efficiency indicators allow you to determine the effectiveness of investing in a particular project. When analyzing investment projects, the following investment performance indicators:

▪ payback period - PB (Payback period);

▪ discounted payback period - DBP (Discounted payback period);

▪ average rate of return - ARR (Average rate of return);

▪ net present value - NPV (Net present value);

▪ profitability index - PI (Profitability index);

▪ internal rate of return - IRR (Internal rate of return);

▪ modified internal rate of return - MIRR (Modified internal rate of return).

When calculating performance indicators cash flows are discounted. This takes into account the change in the value of money over time. The discount rate plays the role of a factor that generally characterizes the impact of the macroeconomic environment and financial market conditions.

Discount rate is a parameter that allows you to compare the project with alternative investment opportunities. As such an alternative, bank deposits or investments in government securities are usually considered.

The discount rate affects only the calculation of performance indicators.

Content Cash flow and other financial reports does not depend on the discount rate. When calculating cash flows, it is best not to calculate the discount rate, since in order to determine all investment ratios, the calculation must be free.

35. PAYBACK PERIOD. DISCOUNTED PAYBACK PERIOD

payback (PB - Payback period) is the time required to cover the initial investment from the net cash flow generated by the investment project. The following ratio is used to calculate the payback period:

where Investments - initial investment; GF_t - net cash flow of month t.

Required condition project implementation: the payback period should be less than the duration of the project.

Discounted payback period (DPB - Discounted payback period) is calculated similarly to PB, but in this case the net cash flow is discounted. The ratio used for the calculation is as follows:

where Investments - initial investment; GF_t - net cash flow of month t; r - monthly discount rate.

This indicator gives a more realistic estimate payback period than RV, subject to the correct choice of discount rate.

36. AVERAGE RATE OF RETURN. NET ADVANCED INCOME

Average rate of return (ARR - Average rate of return) represents the profitability of the project as the ratio between the average annual income from its implementation and the amount of initial investment and is calculated by the formula

where Investments - initial investment; OF_t - net cash flow of month t; N - duration of the project, months.

The ARR indicator is interpreted as the average annual income that can be obtained from the implementation of the project.

net present value (NPV - Net present value) is determined by the formula

where Investments - initial investment; GF_t - net cash flow of month t; N - duration of the project, months; r - monthly discount rate.

The NPV indicator represents the absolute value of income from the implementation of the project, taking into account the expected change in the value of money. A prerequisite for the implementation of the project: the net present value must be non-negative.

37. PROFITABILITY INDEX. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN

RATE OF RETURN Index of profitability (PI - Profitability index) is calculated by the formula

where Investments - initial investment; CF_t - net cash flow of month t; N - duration of the project, months; r - monthly discount rate.

The PI indicator shows the relative profitability of the project. It determines the amount of profit per unit of invested funds. A prerequisite for the implementation of the project: the profitability index must be greater than one.

Internal rate of return (IRR-Internal rate of return) is determined from the following ratio:

where Investments - initial investment; OF_t - net cash flow of month t; N - duration of the project, months; IRR - internal rate of return.

The project is considered acceptable if the calculated IRR value is not lower than the required rate of return, which is determined by the company's investment policy. At IRR equal to the discount rate, NPV is equal to zero.

38. MODIFIED INTERNAL RATE OF RATE

Modified internal rate of return (MIRR - Modified internal rate of return) is based on the concept of the future cost of the project.

Future value of the project (TV - Terminal value) - the value of the proceeds received from the implementation of the project, referred to the end of the project using the rate of return on reinvestment. The rate of return on reinvestment R in this case means the income that can be obtained by reinvesting the proceeds from the project:

where R is the monthly rate of return on reinvestment; N - duration of the project, months; OF_t - net cash flow of month t. The modified internal rate of return is defined as the discount rate at which the following condition is met:

where Go_t - payments of month t; r - required rate of return on investment (monthly); N - duration of the project in months. In other words, to calculate MIRR, project related payments are discounted at the beginning of the project using a discount rate r based on the cost of capital raised (funding rate or required rate of return on investment). In this case, the proceeds from the project are brought to its end using the discount rate R, based on the possible income from the reinvestment of these funds (the rate of return on reinvestment). After that, the modified internal rate of return is determined as the discount rate that equalizes these two values (adjusted payments and receipts).

39. CALCULATION, ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL COEFFICIENTS OF THE BUSINESS PLAN

Can highlight several main groups of financial ratios of a business plan.

Liquidity indicators {Liquidity Ratios) characterize the ability of the company in the shortest possible time to cover all short-term liabilities with liquid funds. The higher this indicator, the more stable the company's position. However, recently there has been a tendency to move away from a conservative balance sheet to the use of financial leverage, which allows increasing the level of dividends paid. Thus, liquidity ratios deteriorate significantly.

Liquidity ratios include the following ratios:

1) total liquidity ratio;

2) current ratio;

3) quick liquidity ratio;

4) net working capital.

Business Activity Indicators {Activity ratios) allow you to analyze the activity of the company's operations, the effectiveness of its actions in the market, the level of sales in relation to balance sheet and income statement items.

The business activity indicators include the following ratios:

1) inventory turnover period;

2) receivables turnover period;

3) turnover period of accounts payable;

4) working capital turnover ratio;

5) the turnover ratio of fixed assets;

6) asset turnover ratio.

Capital structure indicators

{Gearing ratios), also called solvency indicators, characterize the ability of an enterprise to repay long-term obligations while maintaining its long-term assets. A sufficient level of solvency of the enterprise ensures its protection from bankruptcy.

The indicators of the capital structure include the following indicators:

1) the amount of liabilities to assets;

2) the ratio of long-term liabilities to assets;

3) financial independence coefficient;

4) interest coverage ratio.

Profitability indicators {Profitability ratios) show how profitable the company's activities are, how many costs are incurred per unit of output, and how professionally the company manages its assets (i.e., capital).

Profitability indicators include the following ratios:

1) gross profit margin ratio;

2) operating profit margin ratio;

3) overall profitability ratio;

4) profitability of current assets;

5) profitability of non-current assets;

6) return on total assets ratio;

7) return on equity;

8) return on invested capital.

Investment indicators {investment ratios) characterize the value and profitability of the company's shares. According to these indicators, it is possible to determine the level of capitalization of the company. The indicators of this group are calculated at the end of the year.

Investment indicators include the following ratios:

1) earnings per share;

2) dividends per share;

3) dividend coverage ratio;

4) the ratio of share price and profit.

40. LIQUIDITY RATES

The overall liquidity ratio characterizes the company's ability to repay short-term obligations:

Current liquidity = Current assets / Current liabilities.

Current liquidity ratio {current ratio) calculated as the ratio of current assets to short-term liabilities (as a percentage). The calculation uses the average values of balance sheet indicators for the billing period. This ratio shows whether the company has enough funds that can be used to pay off short-term liabilities. In international practice, the normal value of the liquidity ratio is considered to be from 100 to 200% (sometimes up to 300%). The lower limit is due to the fact that working capital should be at least sufficient to pay off short-term liabilities. An excess of working capital over short-term liabilities by more than three times is also undesirable, since it may indicate an irrational asset structure.

Quick liquidity ratio {Quick ratio) is defined as the ratio of the most liquid part of current assets (cash, receivables, short-term financial investments) to short-term liabilities (in percent).

Current liquidity = (Current assets - inventory) / Short-term liabilities,

where TMZ - commodity-material stocks.

The calculation uses the average values of balance sheet indicators for the billing period. The normal value of the coefficient should exceed 100%. However, in the practice of Russian enterprises, 70-80% is considered to be the optimal value.

Net working capital (Net working capital) is equal to the difference between the current assets of the enterprise and its short-term liabilities (in monetary units):

Net Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities.

The calculation uses the average values of balance sheet indicators for the billing period.

Net working capital is necessary to maintain the financial stability of the enterprise, since the excess of working capital over short-term liabilities means that the enterprise can not only pay off its short-term liabilities, but also has reserves for expanding activities.

Optimal amount net working capital depends on the characteristics of the company's activities, in particular on the scale of its activities, sales volumes, inventory turnover rate and receivables. The lack of working capital indicates the inability of the company to repay short-term liabilities in a timely manner. A significant excess of net working capital over the optimal need indicates the irrational use of enterprise resources.

41. BUSINESS PERFORMANCE

Indicators of business activity (Activity ratios) allow you to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of enterprise funds.

Inventory turnover period

{Stock turnover) reflects the rate of inventory sales in days:

Inventory turnover = (Inventory / Production costs) x 365.

It is calculated as the average annual value of the amount of stocks, referred to the amount of daily production costs. The latter is defined as the result of dividing the sum of direct production costs for the current year by 365 days. In general, the higher the inventory turnover ratio, the less funds are tied up in this least liquid group of assets. It is especially important to increase turnover and reduce inventory in the presence of significant debt in the company's liabilities.

In some cases, when the ratio is tied to revenue, the inventory turnover period is calculated as the average annual value of the amount of inventory, related to the company's revenue for the analyzed period, multiplied by 365 days.

In the case of calculating this and other similar indicators for a period of less than one year, the following method is applied. The total values used in the formula for the calculation period of a month, quarter, or half year are multiplied by a factor of 12, 4, or 2, respectively. The annual averages are replaced by the averages for the calculation period.

Accounts receivable turnover period (Average collection period) shows the average number of days required to collect a debt:

Accounts receivable turnover = (Accounts receivable / Revenue) x 365. It is calculated as the ratio of the average annual amount of accounts receivable to the amount of daily revenue. Daily revenue is determined as the result of dividing the amount of revenue from sales of products received during the year by 365 days. A high ratio may indicate difficulties encountered in collecting funds from accounts receivable.

Accounts payable turnover period (creditor/purchases ratio) indicates the average number of days it takes a company to pay its bills:

Accounts receivable turnover = (Accounts payable / Total daily purchases) x 365.

It is calculated as the ratio of the average annual accounts payable to the amount of daily purchases. The latter is defined as the result of dividing direct production costs (the cost of raw materials, materials and components, with the exception of piecework wages) incurred during the year by 365 days. Ideally, it is desirable for an enterprise to collect debts on accounts receivable before it becomes necessary to pay debts to creditors.

42. TURNOVER RATIO OF WORKING CAPITAL, FIXED ASSETS, ASSETS

Working capital turnover ratio {Net

working capital turnover is equal to the ratio of total sales revenue for the year to the average annual value of net working capital NWO.

Working capital turnover = Revenue / Net working capital.

This indicator shows how effectively the company uses investments in working capital and how this affects sales growth. The higher the value of this ratio, the more efficiently the company uses net working capital.

Fixed assets turnover ratio {Fixed turnover assets) equal to the ratio of the total revenue from sales of products for the year to the average annual value of the amount of fixed assets. Fixed Asset Turnover = Revenue / Fixed Assets.

This indicator, also called the capital productivity ratio, characterizes the efficiency of the use of fixed assets by the enterprise. The higher the value of the coefficient, the more efficiently the company uses fixed assets. A low rate of return on assets indicates insufficient sales or too high capital investment. It should be noted that this coefficient has a strongly pronounced industry specificity. In addition, the value of this indicator largely depends on the methods of calculating depreciation and the practice of assessing the value of assets. It is quite possible that an enterprise using depreciated fixed assets has a higher capital productivity ratio than a modernized enterprise.

Asset turnover ratio (total assets turnover) is equal to the ratio of the total revenue from product sales for the year to the average value of the sum of all assets:

Asset turnover = Revenue / Total assets.

The indicator characterizes the efficiency of the company's use of all available resources, regardless of the sources of their attraction, and shows how many times a year the full cycle of production and circulation takes place, bringing the effect in the form of profit. When considering this indicator, industry specifics should be taken into account.

43. INDICATORS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Capital structure indicators (Gearing ratios), also called solvency indicators, characterize the ability of an enterprise to repay long-term obligations while maintaining its long-term assets. A sufficient level of solvency of the enterprise ensures its protection from bankruptcy. To calculate the indicators of this group, the average values of balance sheet data for the period are used.

Amount of liabilities to assets (total debt to total assets) shows what proportion of the company's assets is financed by borrowed funds, regardless of the source, and is equal to the ratio of the sum of long-term and current liabilities to total assets: Total liabilities by assets = (Long-term liabilities + Current liabilities) / Total assets.

The ratio of long-term liabilities to assets (Long-term debt to total assets) shows what proportion of the company's assets is financed by long-term loans:

Long-term liabilities to assets = Long-term liabilities / Total assets.

Financial independence ratio (total debt to equity), or owner’s quota, characterizes the firm’s dependence on external loans and is equal to the ratio of the sum of long-term and current liabilities to equity: Financial independence = (Current liabilities + Long-term liabilities) / Own capital.

The higher the value of the coefficient, the greater the amount of the company's accounts payable, the higher the risk of insolvency. A high value of the coefficient indicates the potential danger of the enterprise having a shortage of funds. To interpret this indicator, it is necessary to take into account its average level in other industries, as well as the company's access to additional sources of financing.

Interest coverage ratio or creditor protection ratio {times interest earned) characterizes the degree of protection of creditors from non-payment of interest on a loan and shows how many times during the reporting period the company earned funds to pay interest on loans. It is equal to the ratio of profit before interest and income tax to the interest on the loan.

Interest coverage = Operating profit / Loan interest amount.

This indicator also allows you to determine the acceptable level of reduction in profits used for interest payments.

44. ROI

Profitability ratios (Profitability ratios) show how profitable the company is.

Gross profit margin (gross profit margin) shows the share of gross profit in the sales volume of the enterprise and is calculated by the formula

Gross Profit Margin = Gross Profit / Revenue.

For the calculation, the totals of the income statement data for the period are used.

Operating profit margin (operating profit margin) shows the share of operating profit in sales volume and is calculated by the formula

Operating Margin = Operating Profit / Revenue. The calculation uses the total values of the income statement data for the period.

Total profitability ratio (net profit margin) (Net profit margin) shows the share of net profit in sales volume and is calculated using the formula Total profitability = Net profit / Revenue.

For the calculation, the totals of the income statement data for the period are used.

Return on current assets (Return on current assets) demonstrates the ability of the enterprise to ensure the volume of annual profit in relation to the average annual amount of working capital of the company. The higher the value of this ratio, the more efficiently working capital is used.

Return on current assets = Net profit / Current assets. To calculate for a month, quarter or half a year, the amount of profit is multiplied by 12, 4 or 2, respectively. In this case, the average value of current assets for the billing period is used.

Profitability of non-current assets {Return on fixed assets) demonstrates the ability of the enterprise to provide a sufficient amount of annual profit in relation to the average annual cost of the company's fixed assets. The higher the value of this ratio, the more efficiently fixed assets are used.

Return on non-current assets = Net profit / Non-current assets.

To calculate for a month, quarter or half a year, the amount of profit is multiplied by 12, 4 or 2, respectively. In this case, the average value of non-current assets for the billing period is used.

45. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE

Investment ratios characterize the value and profitability of the company's shares. The indicators of this group are calculated at the end of the year.

Earnings per share (Earning per ordinary share) shows what share of net profit falls on one ordinary share in circulation. Shares outstanding are defined as the difference between the total number of ordinary shares in issue and the treasury shares in the portfolio. If the company's capital structure contains preferred shares, the amount of dividends paid on them must first be deducted from net profit. It should be noted that this indicator has a significant impact on the market value of the company's shares:

Earnings per share = (Net income - Dividends on preferred shares) / Number of common shares.

Dividend per share (Dividends per ordinary share) - this indicator determines the amount of dividends per each ordinary share and is equal to the ratio of the amount of dividends on ordinary shares to the number of ordinary shares: Dividends per share = Amount of dividends / Number of ordinary shares.

Dividend coverage ratio (ordinary dividend coverage) demonstrates the company's ability to pay dividends from profits. It indicates how many times dividends can be paid out of the company's net income.

Dividend coverage = (Net income - Dividends on preferred shares) / Dividends on common shares.

Share Price to Earnings Ratio {price to earnings) shows how many monetary units shareholders are willing to pay for one monetary unit of the company's net profit.

Share price to earnings ratio = Market price per share / Earnings per share.

The market value of an ordinary share is calculated by dividing equity by the number of ordinary shares.

46. CALCULATION AND DETERMINATION OF RISK FACTORS. FACTOR ANALYSIS. EXPERT METHOD

One of the most important parts of business planning is identification and calculation of risk factors.

The created project is, in essence, a forecast that shows that, with certain values of the initial data, calculated indicators of the effectiveness of economic activity can be obtained. However, building your plans on such a hard-coded forecast is somewhat risky, since even a slight change in the initial data can lead to completely unexpected results. After all, the success of the project implementation depends on many variables that are introduced into the description as initial data, but in reality are not completely controllable parameters. These parameters include the following indicators. sales volume, product price, cost amounts, taxes, inflation rate, etc. All these quantities can be considered as random factors that affect the result of the project.

There are many methods for determining risk factors, the main and most common of them. factor analysis, expert analysis, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo method.

Factor analysis - a group of methods of multivariate statistical analysis, which allow to present in a compact form generalized information about the structure of relationships between the observed features of the object under study based on the selection of some directly unobservable factors. Factor analysis determines the expected risk factors and the degree of their impact on the activities of the enterprise or on the project.

Allocate four main method of factor analysis:

1) method of chain substitutions;

2) integral method;

3) index method;

4) differentiation.

expert method through expert assessments of specialists in this field, establishes the degree of risk of impact on the project/enterprise.

When analyzing project risks, a expert opinion table. The table discusses any possible risks and the level of their impact on the project under consideration. The table is not related to any specific date, industry or economic circumstances. The level of expected risks and their list are formed in accordance with your knowledge about them. To use this table, you must be an expert in the field being studied. Consultants, specialists, preferably independent market experts, form their own, experience-based, opinion about the risks of the project. Then the average value for the listed items is calculated, and the business model is calculated taking into account the strongest risks of the project.

47. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

One of the tasks of project analysis is determining the sensitivity of performance indicators to changes in various parameters.

It is necessary to analyze the stability of the project to possible changes in both the economic situation as a whole (changes in the structure and rates of inflation, increased delay in payments) and internal indicators of the project (changes in sales volumes, product prices). Such an analysis is called a sensitivity analysis.

The wider the range of parameters in which the performance indicators remain within acceptable values, the higher the "margin of safety" of the project, the better it is protected from fluctuations of various factors that affect the results of the project.

Investigation of the sensitivity of performance indicators to changes in the discount rate allows you to determine the stability of the project in relation to fluctuations in the financial market and possible changes in macroeconomic operating conditions.

For sensitivity analysis, you need to:

▪ select the main indicators (NPV, IRR, FV, etc.), changes in which will significantly affect the project flows;

▪ analyze when the level of factors changes (changes in revenue, cost, salary costs, taxes, etc.), which indicator will be most sensitive to these changes and which factor has the greatest impact on the model;

▪ check the sensitivity of the selected indicator with the probability of deviations of the first (the probability that the factor will change, i.e. it will become larger, smaller or remain planned) and second levels (if the factor nevertheless turns out to be below the planned level, then with a probability of 60% the deviation will not more than 10%).

48. MONTE CARLO METHOD

Purpose of statistical analysis - determine the degree of impact of random factors on project performance indicators.

The analysis is carried out as follows. Let us assume that it has been determined which data should be considered uncertain, and also a range of values within which they can vary randomly has been established. If we are talking, for example, about two parameters, this means that the range of values of the source data has been defined, having the shape of a rectangle. For three variables, this region is a parallelepiped. The set of initial data on which the fate of the project depends is displayed by a point lying inside the selected area. There are a great many such points, so it is impossible to perform project calculations for each of them. However, it is necessary to determine what effect the uncertainty of the input data has on the behavior of the model. This problem is solved using the Monte Carlo method.

Suppose we have a way to select points in a selected data area randomly, similar to roulette in a gambling establishment. For each point chosen in this way, we will calculate the performance indicators and write them down in a table. Having done a sufficiently large number of experiments, we can draw some conclusions.

Two criteria are used to quantify the results. mean value and uncertainty. Suppose we have done N experiments and obtained a set of values for some indicator f(n = 1, N). Then the average value of M is determined by the formula

where M is the expected value of f_n; f - a certain indicator under study; N is the number of experiments performed.

The uncertainty (or coefficient of variation) is calculated as follows:

The value M can be interpreted as the expected value of the random variable f_n.

Uncertainty can also be viewed as an assessment of the risk associated with the fact that the value of f_n deviate from the expected value of M.

49. PROJECT BREAK-EVEN ANALYSIS

Break-even is a prerequisite for the implementation of all commercial projects. It is advisable to include in the financial part of the business plan break-even analysis, which demonstrates what sales volume must be so that the company can fulfill its obligations without outside help.

The most convenient form is a representation in the business plan schemes for achieving break-even in the form of a graph, which clearly shows the dependence of profit on production (sales) volumes, production (distribution) costs and product prices.

Most often, the break-even limit is determined for the volume of production. It is calculated only during the period of operation of the enterprise and is called the break-even level. The break-even level is the ratio of the break-even sales volume (that is, the volume that corresponds to zero profit and zero losses) to the projected one for a certain period of time (analysis step).

When determining this indicator, it is assumed that the total current production costs for a period of time (analysis step) can be divided into conditionally constant, independent of the volume of production, and conditionally variable, changing in direct proportion to the volume of production. The break-even level can also be determined for the price of products or, for example, for the price of the main raw material used in production.

It is possible to analyze the project according to the following indicators:

▪ break-even point (in units);

▪ break-even point (in base currency);

▪ margin of financial strength (in base currency);

▪ margin of financial strength (in percent);

▪ operating lever.

50. PROJECT BREAK-EVEN INDICATORS

Breakeven point (in pieces) is determined by the formula

TB pcs. = E / VP x V w

, where E is the total fixed costs in the main currency; VP - contribution to coverage; TB pcs. - sales volume, pcs.

Contribution to coverage in the main currency is determined by the formula

VP \uXNUMXd V - C,

where V is the volume of sales in the main currency; C - total variable costs in the base currency.

Break Even Point in Major Currency is determined by the formula

TB_rub = E / KV I 100%,

where E - total fixed costs in the main currency; KV - coefficient of contribution to the coating.

Coverage contribution ratio calculated by the formula

KV = VP / V AND 100%,

where V is the volume of sales in the main currency.

Exceeding the break-even point in the base currency by sales volume is called financial safety margin. The margin of financial safety can be expressed in the base currency or as a percentage of the value of sales.

Financial safety margin in base currency calculated by the formula

RFP rub. = V - TB rub.

Margin of financial strength in percent calculated by the formula

Salary% = Salary rub. / Vх100%,

where V is the volume of sales in the main currency.

Operating lever is determined by the formula

OR = VP / Pr,

where VP is the contribution to the coverage; Pr - profit in the main currency.

Profit in the main currency calculated by the formula

Pr \uXNUMXd V - C - E - NP,

where V is the volume of sales in the main currency; C - total variable costs in the main currency; E - total fixed costs in the main currency; NP - income tax in the main currency. When analyzing the break-even of projects an important parameter is the analysis step. The analysis step determines the time points at which break-even indicators will be calculated - month, quarter, year. The analysis step is selected depending on the goals of the project analysis. If you need to view the prospects of the project over a long period of time, then choose the analysis step of a quarter or a year. If it is necessary to obtain a more detailed picture of the state of the project at individual points in time, then set the analysis step to a month.

51. STATISTICAL AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS. SIMULATION OF CONDITIONS, CALCULATION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS OF STATISTICAL AND SCENARIAN ANALYSIS IN THE PROJECT EXPERT SYSTEM

Statistical and scenario analyzes can be used to develop business plans.

Scenario analysis allows you to simulate several scenarios for the development of the project (company). A business plan usually includes three scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely. Although several dozen scenarios can be developed, their quantity and quality depend on the need to simulate the development of events and financial indicators when various key parameters change.

The Project Expert program allows you to create several options for the development of events, taking into account the risks. The conservative scenario is taken without taking into account risk factors, the pessimistic scenario is taken taking into account the impact of risks, and the optimistic scenario is the inverse risk function adjusted for the strategic marketing plan.

To calculate scenarios, various values of key indicators are selected. After creating a composition with a new set of values, they are viewed and the results are analyzed - final indicators that are significant for the project, how much they have changed compared to the baseline scenario and due to what.

Scenario analysis is linked to break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis.

Degree of stability project in relation to possible changes in the conditions of implementation can be characterized by indicators of break-even boundaries (limit levels) of production volumes, prices of manufactured products and other parameters. These and similar indicators essentially correspond to scenarios that provide for a corresponding decrease in sales volumes, prices of products sold, etc., but they are not indicators of the effectiveness of the project itself.

Break-even limit (marginal level) of the project parameter for a certain step of the calculation period is defined as such a coefficient to the value of the parameter, when applied, the net profit of the participant at this step becomes zero.

Statistical analysis is based on the collection and processing of large amounts of data both about the project (company) and the external environment using statistical methods and models.

52. DECISION-MAKING ON THE NEED TO INVEST IN PROJECTS (BUSINESS PLANS) ON PERFORMANCE INDICATORS. DECISION-MAKING ON THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS TO OPTIMIZE INCOME AND COSTS

Making a decision to invest in a project is a serious, deliberate step. It is necessary to take into account all the risks of the project in order to return the investment in the shortest possible time. To do this, you should conduct an investment analysis and analyze the main indicators: rdo, npv, iRr, pb, dpb, bi, etc. Also, in the case of investing resources in a new enterprise, it is necessary to have a clearly balanced strategic marketing plan and an understanding of the main shareholders. To assess the prospects for the development of the project, it is necessary to estimate its cost. Only this indicator is able to most fully reflect the prospects of the business. Having determined the value of the business in five years or more, you can compare investments with other more profitable financial instruments and projects and make a decision for yourself.

Optimization of income and costs is the primary task and the main function in the analysis, and then in the implementation of investment projects. Only with the rational use of funds is it possible to achieve a competitive advantage and take a leading position in the market. When making decisions, it is necessary to focus not only on indicators of financial and investment ratios, but also on a clear strategy for optimizing the costs of the enterprise and building incoming flows.

Considering various projects, it is difficult to determine the most profitable without carefully analyzing the cash flows of the project.

Choosing the most optimal business model, you must be guided by the following principles:

1. It is necessary to choose the project in which the economic profit is greater.

Economic Profit = Invested Capital x (ROIC - WACC)

where ROIC - return on invested capital; WACC is the weighted average cost of capital.

The return on invested capital should be greater than the cost of capital, otherwise the value of the company (business project) in the forecast period decreases in accordance with the rate of development (growth) of the company, which will lead to a loss of liquidity of the company in the market.

2. Comparing the NPV of the project, it is necessary to take into account other indicators, such as the payback period of the project and the return on investment.

We recommend interesting articles Section Lecture notes, cheat sheets:

▪ Constitutional law of foreign countries. Crib

▪ Teria of the organization. Crib

▪ History of world and domestic culture. Lecture notes

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Taking care of pets can often be a challenge, especially when it comes to keeping your home clean. A new interesting solution from the Petgugu Global startup has been presented, which will make life easier for cat owners and help them keep their home perfectly clean and tidy. Startup Petgugu Global has unveiled a unique cat toilet that can automatically flush feces, keeping your home clean and fresh. This innovative device is equipped with various smart sensors that monitor your pet's toilet activity and activate to automatically clean after use. The device connects to the sewer system and ensures efficient waste removal without the need for intervention from the owner. Additionally, the toilet has a large flushable storage capacity, making it ideal for multi-cat households. The Petgugu cat litter bowl is designed for use with water-soluble litters and offers a range of additional ... >>

The attractiveness of caring men 14.04.2024

The stereotype that women prefer "bad boys" has long been widespread. However, recent research conducted by British scientists from Monash University offers a new perspective on this issue. They looked at how women responded to men's emotional responsibility and willingness to help others. The study's findings could change our understanding of what makes men attractive to women. A study conducted by scientists from Monash University leads to new findings about men's attractiveness to women. In the experiment, women were shown photographs of men with brief stories about their behavior in various situations, including their reaction to an encounter with a homeless person. Some of the men ignored the homeless man, while others helped him, such as buying him food. A study found that men who showed empathy and kindness were more attractive to women compared to men who showed empathy and kindness. ... >>

Random news from the Archive

Sails on modern ships 21.04.2015

About 90% of all cargo is transported by sea, spending a huge amount of fuel on this. And how glorious it used to be - set the sail and sail yourself without poisoning the environment with engine exhaust. There is, however, a problem: if the wind does not blow in the right direction or it does not exist at all, then you will not swim anywhere.

Engineers from Norway decided to return to the idea of wind propulsion at a new round of technology development, since from 2020 the regulatory authorities will be very tough to ask for pollution of the sky over the ocean. The hull itself will serve as the sail of the new model - a giant ship rises strongly above the water. According to the calculation, with a tailwind, it will be possible to develop a speed of 19 knots, that is, more than thirty kilometers per hour. In the event of a lack of wind, a gas engine is provided, and one refueling is enough for 70 days of travel. Gas is less harmful than coal or diesel fuel, since there is much less sulfur in the exhaust.

And in order to optimize the process, the Norwegians asked German colleagues from the Fraunhofer Center for Shipping and Services to develop a navigation module. Based on weather data, it plots the route in such a way as to provide the greatest traction from the wind and save fuel.

It is expected that the first vessel of this type will be launched in 2019.

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