LECTURE No. 18. Methods for establishing causal relationships

1. The concept of cause and effect relationships

Before considering directly the methods of establishing cause-and-effect relationships, it is necessary to understand the concept of cause and effect.

The reason called such a phenomenon, process or object, which, by virtue of its existence, causes certain changes in the surrounding world. The cause is characterized by the fact that it always precedes the result. It lies, as it were, at the basis of the consequences. Thus, no effect can be imagined without a cause, because the latter is a kind of starting point. Let's give an example: "Lightning struck - the forest caught fire." Obviously, lightning is the cause here, if it was she who provoked the fire. Without such a cause, there could be no effect. Of course, one can say that the fire could have started as a result of arson, but in this case, arson would have been the cause.

Consequence is what the cause entails; it is always secondary and dependent, determined by it. It is on this relationship of cause and effect that the professional process of many people is built. Firefighters, rescuers, law enforcement officers, before starting work, first look for the cause. For example, firefighters start extinguishing a fire only when it is more or less clear what caused the fire and where. Otherwise, the risk to life would have increased several times. Of course, the final cause of the fire, whether it was set on fire, a malfunction of the electrical wiring or careless handling of fire, becomes clear only after the extinguishment is completed, but initially it must be determined at least approximately.

A law enforcement officer, leaving the scene of an incident, first of all determines the causes of this incident. If a murder is reported, it is necessary to check whether the incident is actually a crime.

That is, the cause of death is determined. At the same time, versions of suicide, accident, death from illness, etc. are eliminated. After that (if it is established that the murder took place), the reason for the crime is already determined - self-interest, revenge, etc.

Rescuers, arriving at the place of the call, first determine the cause of the accident in order to develop the most effective rescue tactics. When it comes to a fall from a height, a car accident or other traumatic event, there is a need for a special transportation procedure. So, for example, the cervical, thoracic and lumbar spine should be fixed in case there is damage to the spinal column. The types of first aid provided also depend on what kind of event led to the emergence of dangerous situations, injuries. It is obvious that rescuers determine the causes of the events for the most effective organization of assistance to citizens.

At first glance, it may seem that the definition of the cause is not important, does not matter much, but the above examples indicate the opposite. Establishing the cause is necessary, because otherwise the operational police officer would be looking for a non-existent criminal, investigating a confluence of circumstances similar to a crime (needless to say, establishing the cause is a large part of operational work), and firefighters and rescuers could not cope with the work.

In this way, cause is called such an objective connection between two phenomena, when one of them causes the other - a consequence.

The disclosure of a causal relationship between phenomena is a complex multifaceted process that includes a variety of logical means and methods of cognition. In logic, several methods have been developed to establish a causal relationship between phenomena. Of these methods, four are most commonly used: method of similarity, method of difference, method of concomitant changes and method of residuals. Often, combinations of these methods are used in scientific research, but to understand the essence of the issue, they should be considered separately [12].

2. Methods for establishing causal relationships

similarity method lies in the fact that if two or more cases of the phenomenon under study are similar in only one circumstance, there is a possibility that this particular circumstance is the cause or part of the cause of this phenomenon.

For example:

Under conditions ABC, the phenomenon a occurs.

Under ADE conditions, phenomenon a occurs.

Under AFG conditions, phenomenon a occurs.

Probably circumstance A is the cause of a [13].

difference method consists in the following: two cases are defined. The first is the one in which the phenomenon under consideration occurs. The second case is the one in which the onset of this phenomenon does not occur. If these two cases differ from each other in only one circumstance, it is probably the cause of the occurrence of the phenomenon under consideration.

For example:

Under conditions ABC, the phenomenon a occurs.

Under conditions of EHV, the phenomenon a.

Probably circumstance A is the cause of a [14].

Accompanying change method is that if any particular phenomenon changes every time another phenomenon changes, with a certain degree of probability it can be assumed that the second phenomenon entails a change in the first and, therefore, they are in causal interdependence.

For example:

Under conditions A1BC, the phenomenon a1 occurs.

Under conditions A2BC, the phenomenon a2 occurs.

Under conditions A3BC, the phenomenon a3 occurs.

Probably circumstance A is cause a [15].

Residual method means that, considering the causes of the complex phenomenon abc, which is caused by a number of circumstances ABC, one can move in stages. Having studied a certain part of the causal circumstances, we can subtract it from the phenomenon abc. As a result, we will get the remainder of this phenomenon, which will be a consequence of the circumstances remaining from the ABC complex. For example:

The phenomenon abs is caused by the circumstances ABC.

Part b of phenomenon abc is caused by circumstance B.

The part c of the phenomenon abs is caused by the circumstance C.

Probably, part a of the phenomenon abc is causally dependent on circumstance A [16].

Having considered the methods of establishing causal relationships, we can say that they, by their nature, relate to complex inferences. They combine induction with deduction, inductive generalizations are built using deductive consequences.

Based on the properties of a causal connection, deduction acts as a logical means of excluding random circumstances, thereby it logically corrects and directs inductive generalization.

The relationship of induction and deduction ensures the logical independence of reasoning when applying methods, and the accuracy of the knowledge expressed in the premises determines the degree of validity of the knowledge obtained.

Author: Shadrin D.A.

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