Risk management of social emergencies. OBZhD

BASICS OF SAFE LIFE
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Risk management of social emergencies. Basics of safe life

Fundamentals of Safe Life Activities (OBZhD)

The accumulated world experience in solving the problem of security, analysis of its real state and forecast for the future show that disaster risk management has rightfully become an important part of the state policy in the field of sustainable development and national security of both individual states and the entire international community, ensuring life safety population.

This is due to well-defined objective factors. First, emergencies, their socio-economic consequences, both now and in the forecasted future, pose a serious threat to the national interests of most states and human civilization as a whole, if effective targeted measures are not taken to reduce their risk. Secondly, the problem of emergency risk management is quite complex and multifaceted. To manage risks, one needs not only knowledge from many branches of science and technology, but also real experience and practice.

The choice of the most priority and effective measures and activities aimed at reducing the risks of emergencies is the main goal of state policy and practice in the field of life safety.

Risk of social emergencies in a broad sense, this is the probability of a natural disaster, a man-made or environmental disaster, a socio-political cataclysm (war, revolution, inter-ethnic or inter-confessional conflict, etc.) and the damage that they can cause to individuals, society and the state. This risk consists in determining the quantitative and qualitative indicators expected in connection with the specific danger of this phenomenon: the number of dead and injured, the degree of material and moral damage, including as a result of a decline in economic activity.

Risk assessment VC is expressed as a scale that digitizes the losses in a specific disaster area over a specified period of time. Social emergency risk management should include both an assessment of the size of a specific risk and an assessment of how big the risk is for the individual, society and the state. Therefore, the process of emergency risk management has two sides, which are conditionally called quantitative (objective) and qualitative (subjective) assessments.

Quantitative (objective) risk assessment of emergencies requires a 'quantity' of risk based on available data and an understanding of the complexity of processes, situations and possible consequences.

Qualitative (subjective) assessment of the specified risk - it is a risk assessment by society, i.e., society's view of the danger that threatens it and its ideas about what needs to be done.

Based on this, the first stage of emergency risk management is the calculation of the probable risk, the second is its qualitative assessment, obtaining an idea of its severity, importance and significance for society. Often, the public assessment of the risk of any emergency is formed under the influence of the risks that people have already faced in everyday life, as well as the severity of the hazards and their consequences.

In practice, managing the risks of social emergencies comes down to increasing the level of social security. The security of society is, firstly, the absence of dangers and threats within the limits of some risk acceptable to society, secondly, a sufficient degree of its resistance to them, that is, the presence of a certain immunity, and, thirdly, the ability and readiness to defend itself from these dangers and threats, to eliminate them, to restore the state of well-being.

In this regard, to increase the level of security in the social sphere, it is necessary to ensure:

improvement of the social system and its objects (structures, institutions, organizations, relations between them, politics, etc.);
training of personnel capable of working effectively and purposefully to solve this problem;
the ability and readiness of social structures and personnel to eliminate the consequences of emergencies.

Risk management opens up fundamentally new opportunities for improving the safety of society. Economic methods of risk management are added to political, organizational, administrative, technical ones. The latter include: insurance, monetary compensation for damage, payments for risk, etc. Many experts consider it expedient to introduce risk quotas by law. However, there are many who believe that preventive measures to prevent risks, which come down to insurance, have ceased to be effective. The false sense of security - "everything is insured" - has become dangerous in itself, because, firstly, the staff is less concerned about the consequences of risk, and secondly, even a full insurance policy does not cover the "hidden" costs that are inevitable in a cruel market. competition.

As social, economic, scientific and technological development progresses, society attaches increasing importance to reducing the risks of emergencies. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the likelihood of accidents, catastrophes, armed conflicts with the use of weapons of mass destruction, etc. increases. the most important elements of prevention and preparedness for various types of emergencies, including those of social origin.

Reasonable data are needed to calculate the risk. Therefore, the carefully reasoned development of the database and their implementation is one of the most important tasks of managing the risk of social emergencies at all levels.

Disaster risk management is based on methodology for comparing costs and benefits from risk reduction, which involves the following sequence of hazard studies.

Stage I Preliminary hazard analysis, including:

identification of the source of danger;
identifying parts of the social system that can cause these hazards;
the introduction of a restriction on the analysis, i.e. the exclusion of hazards that will not be studied, since they are not related to the emergency under study.

At this stage, the risk situation in the social sphere is outlined, the statistics of accidents, disasters and emergencies are studied, and the most vulnerable places are identified. An example would be a situation analysis to ensure that a private enterprise is protected from political risk in a country or region. Such an analysis suggests:

study of the country or region, the political situation in them, the leaders of the ruling party and the opposition;
a preliminary analysis of political risks, as well as the constant conduct of such an analysis after establishing a business relationship with someone in order to have current information on the scale and type of risk;
ascertaining opportunities to establish closer contacts with representatives of the authorities and the opposition;
determination of the procedure for the appointment of personnel (personnel from the local population should not be hired for key positions);
compiling a list of components that are difficult to produce locally (they should be imported from the country or region where the parent company is located);
establishment of optimal methods of exchange (transfer) of local currency.

Stage II. Identification of the sequence of hazards, that can cause social emergencies. For example, the emergence of food difficulties, high inflation, unemployment, social tension, interethnic clashes, manifestations of religious extremism, etc. All these dangers are harbingers of an acute social conflict and a possible emergency (armed conflict or war).

Stage III. Analysis of the consequences of emergencies. Here it is necessary to clearly understand what losses this or that social structure can suffer in the event of an emergency (revolution, civil war, regional interethnic conflict, etc.). At this stage, risk management activities require significant financial costs. From a practical point of view, it is better to start with catastrophic cases, and then expand the study, moving gradually to cases with less significant consequences. If we are talking about a private enterprise, then the dangers can be of the following nature: sudden or gradual confiscation (nationalization) of property, changes in the currency situation (prohibition of exchanging local currency for convertible or transferring currency abroad), imposing discriminatory taxes, limiting prices and imposing controls on manufactured goods, threats to personnel and kidnapping of key employees, etc.

Currently, experts in the field of security, both scientists and practitioners, believe that in order to improve the efficiency of emergency risk management, it is necessary to speed up the solution of a number of urgent problems. Among them, the most important are the following:

development and adoption of a state strategy for reducing the risks of emergencies, based on a scientifically based legislative and regulatory framework;
improving the statistical accounting of natural, man-made and social emergencies, the development of modern methods for assessing risks associated with natural and man-made hazards, and their application in predicting social threats;
formation of an emergency risk management system, including the prevention of such situations and prompt response to them;
development of methodological foundations for strategic and operational planning of measures to reduce the risks of emergencies;
development of systems for comprehensive monitoring of emergency risks, especially its elements and structures in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities;
convergence of systems for the prevention and liquidation of emergencies and civil defense (CS) with their possible subsequent integration into a single state system of civil protection, as well as the creation of a system of public rescue organizations and formations;
further improvement of the state policy for the preservation and development of the existing potential of the civil defense and its material and technical base, including the creation of reserves in case of emergencies in peacetime and wartime;
implementation of effective measures to improve the training of specialists and the population in the field of civil defense and the prevention and elimination of emergencies and the formation of a mass culture of safety among the population of the country;
development and improvement of the regulatory and methodological framework for insurance and reinsurance of emergency risks;
generalization and dissemination of the experience of the world community in risk management.

The federal program "Reducing the risks and mitigating the consequences of natural and man-made emergencies in the Russian Federation until 2005", approved by Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of September 29, 1999 No. 1098, was aimed at solving these problems. In addition, in the National Security Concept of the Russian Federation pointed out the need for a new approach to the organization and conduct of civil defense on the territory of the Russian Federation, the qualitative improvement of the unified state system for the prevention and elimination of emergencies, including its further integration with similar systems of foreign states.

Certain assistance in ensuring integrated security can be provided by the use of theories of risk management. Its methods make it possible to assess the various risks that threaten a person and society, to calculate the rational costs necessary to reduce them to an acceptable value. The criterion of optimal costs is the maximum possible reduction in the total risk, which is achievable at a given standard of living in society.

However, it should be noted that this approach is possible only in a socially healthy society and in peacetime. In a destabilized society (under the threat of war, in conditions of acute social conflicts and revolutions, the criminalization of society, in natural disasters and other force majeure circumstances), it is advisable to use other approaches and criteria to ensure security and solve the problem of acceptable risk.

Currently, the most effective way to manage risk is modeling the processes of occurrence of hazards and threats, their development, development into emergencies and elimination. The study of hazards by models, which are understood as analogues (mathematical, physical, computer, model-schemes, etc.) of the objects under study, in some cases is the only possible one, for example, when determining the consequences of a war, especially a nuclear, natural disaster, man-made disaster, criminal situation, etc. The results of the development and research of the model, according to certain criteria, apply to the original or real processes. The possibility of transferring the results obtained during the construction of the study to the original is based on the fact that the model in a certain sense displays (reproduces) some of its aspects and properties. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the model is always only a simplified copy of some properties of the original, and it is important not to overstep the permissible limits of such simplifications.

Models can be static, reflecting the structure, relationships and state of hazards; simple dynamic, characterizing qualitative changes; complex dynamic, reflecting qualitative and quantitative changes (leaps and their evolution).

At present, due to the widespread introduction of video technology into everyday life, emergency simulation is possible using video films on social catastrophes. They help to quite thoroughly understand a particular critical situation displayed on the screen. However, it should be borne in mind that the authors of the videos are, as a rule, professional reporters, who are not always free from likes and dislikes.

Huge opportunities for modeling today are provided by computer technology. There are several varieties computer systems, with the help of which the modeling of the studied processes, including potential hazards and threats, is carried out. Factual systems are a mechanism for collecting, accumulating and generalizing hazard factors. Storing information about certain hazardous processes at different times makes it possible to identify trends, changes, develop positive ones and nullify or weaken negative phenomena (processes). Such systems perform diagnostic functions, making it possible to judge the state of the processes under study by a set of certain signs and their changes, providing the development of recommendations for their prediction and control.

Widespread interpretive computer systems that allow, under certain conditions and a given interpretation of knowledge, to reveal the most justified and probable states of dangerous phenomena. The computer here acts as an instrument of the mental system, which makes it possible to combine conditions, the state of processes and initial knowledge in different ways, so that certain conclusions or one's own judgments are consistent with the maximum set of available facts.

Modeling is also widely used expert computer systems acting as consultants. In these systems, knowledge of the set is stored in memory, and the bank of expert data is constantly replenished. The machine generalizes this knowledge and puts it in a certain logical order. The computer analyzes the problem introduced into it from the standpoint of the most authoritative knowledge and gives the optimal answer. Due to their almost limitless possibilities, expert systems bring to a qualitatively new level the study of the life process of all elements of nature, technology and society and their management.

Recently, scientists from many countries are developing methods of nonlinear mathematical modeling to study the most complex and important processes of the emergence and development of socio-political, spiritual, moral and military dangers and threats. However, this process is slow and contradictory. Some researchers believe that mathematical calculations of the probability of social phenomena and processes are impossible. Others, on the contrary, demonstrate the possibilities of studying dangers and threats using mathematical models and computer systems.

Modeling of hazards and threats in the future, no doubt, will help to ensure a more accurate diagnosis of processes developing in nature and society, identify the degree of risk of emergencies, increase the effectiveness of preventive measures taken to ensure integrated security, and significantly reduce financial costs for the prevention of natural disasters, man-made disasters , social conflicts, as well as human casualties and material losses caused by them.

Conclusions

Social experience shows that safety is an acceptable risk that exists, but is not fatal in terms of its transformation into a real danger. Dangers do not usually appear unexpectedly. They are preceded by the accumulation of risk factors. Detection, analysis of these factors, forecasting with their help the degree of probability of the hazard itself, the timing of its occurrence, direction, possible damage, etc., are the most important tasks in diagnosing hazards and threats. It includes the definition of indicators and indicators for measuring risk, identifying criteria for hazards and threats, as well as their threshold values in terms of acceptable risk for the social system.

The accumulated world experience in solving the problems of emergency risk management, analysis of the real state and forecast show that this problem has rightfully become an important part of the state policy in the field of sustainable development of national security and the security of the international community as a whole. Diagnosis of hazards, knowledge of risk factors, the ability to predict them are important components of the training of a specialist in the field of safety, including a teacher of life safety.

Authors: Gubanov V.M., Mikhailov L.A., Solomin V.P.

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