Forecasting and modeling the conditions for the occurrence of dangerous situations. OBZhD

BASICS OF SAFE LIFE
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Forecasting and modeling the conditions for the occurrence of dangerous situations. Basics of safe life

Fundamentals of Safe Life Activities (OBZhD)

The experience of human interaction with technical systems makes it possible to identify traumatic and harmful factors, as well as to develop methods for assessing the probability of occurrence of hazardous situations. This is the accumulation of statistical data on accidents and injuries, various ways of converting and processing static data that increase their information content. The disadvantage of the method is its limited nature, the impossibility of experimentation, and its inapplicability to assessing the danger of new technical means and technologies.

Here stands reliability theory. Reliability is the property of an object to keep in time within the established limits the values of all parameters that allow performing the required functions. In this case, probabilistic quantities are used. The basic concept of reliability is "refusal" - violation of the state of the technical device due to the cessation of operation or due to a sharp change in its parameters. The probability of failure within a given operating time is also estimated here. The reliability theory makes it possible to determine the technical resource of a tool - the duration of continuous or total periodic operation from the start of operation to the onset of the limit state.

The possibilities of electronic computing technology make it possible to develop method of modeling dangerous situations, which operates with formalized concepts: an ordered and specially organized representation of the objects under study using various physical and geometric signs. Statistical data on incidents, the structure and patterns of functioning of technical systems are subjected to formalization.

For an incident to occur, three conditions must be met simultaneously: the presence of a source of danger, the presence of a person in the zone of action of the source of danger, the lack of protective equipment for a person. The probability of an accident or accident at work can be calculated. When building a tree of the causes of an accident with an analysis of previous events, one should single out random previous events, establish a connection between them, and analyze factors that are of a permanent nature. In this case, potentially dangerous factors that have not manifested themselves can be identified. For complex systems, analysis can be done using the fault tree method, in which the diagram shows events and conditions as logical consequences of other events and conditions.

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