Lecture No. 5. Key factors of anti-crisis management

1. Nature and classification of management risks

Everyone knows that any activity related to management is always, but to varying degrees, risky.

The very definition of risk has a very multifactorial nature and, first of all, it is associated with such concepts: probability and uncertainty.

Risk is an economic category that characterizes the state of uncertainty in relations associated with production. Risk is also understood as the likelihood that an organization will lose part of its income as a result of carrying out any activity.

The size of the loss of the organization is the "price of risk", and the success or additional profit - "payment for risk". Risk is one of the key results of the organization's activities.

With economic risk, three outcomes are possible:

1) negative, as a result of which there is damage, loss - loss;

2) zero;

3) positive, due to which there is a benefit, profit - gain.

There are uncontrollable and unpredictable fluctuations in supply and demand in the market; changes in public policy, often leading to political instability in the country; there is no guaranteed positive effect of investment policy within the firm.

In management practice, there are risk characteristics:

1) legitimacy of risk - its probability to be within the normative level;

2) risk acceptability - the probability of losses and the probability that they will not exceed a certain threshold;

3) degree of risk - the magnitude of the risk and its probability. There are four degrees: high, medium, low and zero;

4) the level of risk - is determined by the ratio of the amount of damage to the costs of implementing and preparing a risk solution. It is measured from zero to one. If the value is higher than one, then the risk is considered unjustified;

5) risk probability - measured in the range from 0 to 1. In general, each type of risk has upper and lower limits of probability.

Here are examples of management risk:

1) financial risk: most often expressed in the amount of loss of profitability of securities due to the financial crisis, depreciation of the exchange rate and the likelihood of such a situation occurring;

2) investment risk lies in the uncertainty of the return on invested funds and the receipt of income;

3) the marketing risk of the company's development is expressed in the loss of market share, in the fall in sales and profits;

4) production risk arises as a result of current costs exceeding the business plan as a result of unforeseen situations: shortage of materials, equipment downtime.

The most common risks of the socio-economic development of the country.

Economic:

1) loss of the wealth of the nation;

2) falling competitiveness of the country;

3) a decrease in the investment attractiveness of the economy;

4) reduction in the share of GDP per capita;

5) increase in the level of inflation;

Social:

1) a drop in the level of education of the population;

2) decrease in the material security of the population;

3) increase in mortality and morbidity of the population;

4) difficult demographic situation;

Environmental:

1) environmental pollution;

2) soil erosion, deforestation;

Political:

1) the threat of national conflicts;

2) moratoria.

Many of these risks correspond to the crisis situation in our country's economy.

There are risks that most often recur in the course of the enterprise's activities. These include:

1) the risk associated with the unfavorable political and economic atmosphere in the country;

2) the risk of falling scientific potential;

3) the risk of loss of prestige of the enterprise;

4) the risk of falling product quality;

5) the risk of loss of human resources;

6) the risk of changes in external factors;

7) the risk of reducing controllability.

The classification of risks is presented in table 1.

Table 1

Risk classification

2. Anti-crisis risk management

Crisis situations create a huge number of risks. These risks are very diverse in content, magnitude of possible losses and source of manifestation. In this regard, there is a need to create a risk management system with the involvement of experienced “risk managers” who are specialists in managing risk situations.

The most obvious example of risk management is considered to be the process of developing and implementing risk management decisions. Decisions that are made under conditions of uncertainty, but with a known probability of achieving a result, are considered risky. A purposeful management process involves the implementation of management functions in a logical sequence.

Management risk is studied by a purposeful management process, which has organizational, economic, informational, temporal, legal and social parameters. The information aspect consists in the transformation of information about the sources and facts of uncertainty, information about the levels of probability of the implementation of conditions of uncertainty in such processes as production and sale of products. This information is then converted into indicators of the level of performance or inefficiency of performance under risk. We also receive information about the negative impact of activities on social and environmental conditions of life.

We will study the functions and controls that characterize the risk management process. Let's talk about the stages of the process of developing and implementing risky decisions. The leading role in them is occupied by information analysis, which includes work on monitoring the internal and external environment, to prevent the emergence of new sources of risk and the study of known factors. There is also such a thing as diagnosing a situation. It depends on the specifics of the problem to be solved, the main amount of work is to study the reasons that cause risk deviations. The development of decision options as a stage of the management process is based on the fact that for each decision option, the limits of the likely negative manifestation of risk are studied. The decision-making stage contains justification of the parameters of acceptable risk and the development of a system of responsibility.

And the final stage, of course, is organization and implementation. Its main task is to implement risk solutions. Timely monitoring of deviations in risk parameters and adjustments are often essential.

There are also basic controls used in risk management. Management strategy is actions aimed at ensuring and studying the tasks, functions and goals of the enterprise risk manager. The criteria for selecting a risk decision determine the boundaries of legality depending on sales volume, cost, inflation and price changes. Identification of ways and means to minimize risk losses. This includes insurance and other various risk protections, which are mandatory in crisis management. And at the end, the effectiveness of the achieved level of losses in relation to the costs of risk management is assessed.

Thus, it can be concluded that risk assessment is part of the effectiveness assessment.

When managing organizations, organizational and managerial links arise. These include such as forecasting and risk assessment, consulting services. The simplest solution is considered to be the introduction of a risk manager position at an enterprise and the creation of a body that coordinates actions to manage the main types of risk.

Incredibly great importance in anti-crisis management acquires professionalism in the management of risk situations. Often the level of risk depends more on the perception of the situation by the manager, on his knowledge, intuition and experience, rather than on the development of the market and the economy as a whole.

Successful risk management requires:

1) an information support system that corresponds to the global trend in the development of information technologies;

2) managerial education of personnel;

3) professional skills;

3. Methods for assessing investment risk

The most urgent problem of anti-crisis management in Russia is the development of investment processes. At the moment, there is a tendency for foreign investors to distrust the domestic investment structure.

The process of economic stabilization gives rise to the need for credit resources.

An important role is now being acquired by studies of the investment climate, the quantitative indicator of which is investment risks, which characterize the probability of losing funds invested in the economy.

Investment risk assessment is primarily necessary for potential investors so that they can imagine what the situation is at the investment object and foresee the likely directions for its development.

There is a fairly large number of groups of methods for assessing the investment climate. Let's designate one of them.

Statistical analysis. Here, the level of risk is usually measured by two criteria: dispersion (average expected value) and variation in the possible result (variability). At the same time, the variance measures the possible average result, and when assessing the financial risk of an organization, it is a weighted average of the squared deviations of the true financial results. Variation, on the other hand, reflects the degree and measure of deviation of the expected mean value from the actual mean value.

Factor analysis of financial risks. This analysis is divided into two groups: diversified and non-diversified. Diversified risk is assessed by the number of options for the development of the investment object, the level of competition, the number of contracts concluded and orders received. Non-diversified risk is assessed by the bank interest rate on loans, by the presence of inflation and the overall development of the country. The coefficients of financial stability, business activity are calculated, and the probability of bankruptcy is also determined.

Method of expert assessments.

Assessment methods developed by Western companies:

1) socio-political;

2) external balance of payments;

3) economic.

Often these days, risk factors in Russian regions are assessed. Territorial differences objectively reflect the specifics of individual regions, their national, social, political and economic differences.

In accordance with this issue, it is possible to single out the factors of Russian regional investment risks, which are presented in the form of Table 2. We can observe a similar table in the textbook on anti-crisis management edited by Professor E.M. Korotkov.

Table 2

Factors of Russian regional investment risks

As a result, new economic ties give rise to new mechanisms for their implementation, which are determined by risk assessment.

4. Characteristics of the state of the investment process as a basis for making investment decisions in anti-crisis management

Nowadays, the volume of investments is the most important indicator of the sustainable development of the nation's economy. And despite this, in the 1990s there was an incredible decline in investment, which outstripped even the rate of decline in production. So, in 1995, compared with 1990, there was a decline in gross domestic product (GDP) by 38%. While the volume of investments in fixed capital decreased over the same years by 69%. In 1997, compared with the same 1990, the decline in GDP was 40%, and the decline in investment in fixed assets over the same period was 76%. Thus, the situation in the field of investment in this area in the 1990s should be characterized as a crisis.

The investment crisis in Russia of that period was caused by a number of factors:

1) a significant decrease in the absolute volume of accumulation;

2) a significant reduction in its share in GDP;

3) a decrease in the share of profits of enterprises that are aimed at expanding production;

4) financing of investments in fixed capital has also decreased significantly.

A special role was played by the fact that in the 1990s commercial structures, the population and even banks invested not in the development of the real sector of the economy, but in:

1) trade and intermediary activities;

2) financial;

3) purchase of foreign currency.

The reason for this situation was that the profitability of industrial production was the lowest.

Therefore, today the main task is to establish the advantages of the sector of the economy, that is, to try to create the most favorable conditions for investment in production.

It should be noted that factors such as:

1) division of financial management functions between levels of government;

2) granting greater independence to the regions in the field of financial policy;

3) increasing the role of decentralized funds of financial resources - did not play an important role and did not lead to an increase in the financial impact on the current economic situation in the country.

Analyzing financial activity, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between financial and capital-forming investments. In capital-forming investments, capital investments play an important role. Also exist:

1) investments in intangible assets such as patents, licenses, etc.;

2) investments in working capital, for the purchase of land plots and nature management facilities;

3) the cost of major repairs.

There is a grouping of reasons that determine the need for investment:

1) new construction;

2) reconstruction and technical re-equipment;

3) extension.

To overcome the negative moments in the Russian economy, an anti-crisis investment strategy should be created. When managing investment processes, it is necessary to rely on the study of important phenomena, such as:

1) investment objectives, which must be clearly defined;

2) investment objects to be selected in accordance with priorities;

3) sources of investment, which should be identified taking into account these opportunities.

These seemingly basic, but necessary conditions should contribute to the solution of the main tasks of the state's anti-crisis investment strategy.

5. Sources of investment financing in conditions of limited financial resources

The search for sources of investment financing has long been one of the most important problems associated with investment activities.

In Russia, at the present stage of development, this problem can perhaps be called the most acute and urgent. The entire system of financing the investment process consists of a set of methods, sources and forms of financing investment activities.

In modern conditions, a large number of sources of investment financing have been formed. We list the main ones:

1) net profit of the enterprise;

2) depreciation charges;

3) funds from budgets of various levels;

4) on-farm reserves of the enterprise;

5) funds accumulated by the banking system;

6) funds received in the form of loans and credits from international organizations and foreign investors;

7) funds received from the issue of securities.

In general, all sources of financing are now usually divided into budgetary or centralized and extrabudgetary or decentralized.

Centralized sources include:

1) federal budget funds;

2) funds from the budgets of the subjects of the federation;

3) funds of local budgets;

4) funds from extra-budgetary funds, etc.

Decentralized sources include, respectively:

1) net profit;

2) depreciation charges;

3) funds from the issue of securities;

4) credit resources, etc.

Sources of investment resources are also divided into four groups:

1) budget financing from the budgets of all levels;

2) own savings of enterprises;

3) foreign investments;

4) savings of the population.

Let us consider each of these groups in more detail and, as a basic principle, take an assessment of the possible increase in investments in investments:

1) the use of budgets of all levels to finance investment programs today is quite problematic. In the late 1990s, there was a steady decline in investment in fixed capital, which was financed from the budget. A particularly noticeable decrease in funding was at the expense of the federal budget;

2) the accumulation of own funds of the enterprise, in fact, almost never occurs. A number of reasons contribute to this. One of them is high inflation. For this reason, there is a depreciation of depreciation funds and working capital of the enterprise. Many enterprises now do not have enough finances even to maintain production volumes, and even more so for technical re-equipment or an increase in output.

And, of course, this leads to a decrease in production and a decrease in profit, which is necessary for the accumulation of investment resources. To date, the working capital of enterprises is almost 80% secured by loans from commercial banks, which leads to the fact that most of the profits go to pay bank interest;

3) many politicians and economists associate the opportunity to revive investment processes with the attraction of foreign investment. Now, on the one hand, there is an increase in the volume of foreign investment in enterprises and organizations in Russia, and on the other hand, the share of direct investment varies in different years from 35% to 67,7%. At this time, foreign investors prefer to invest their money in export-oriented industries. Trade, industry and public catering remain the most attractive for foreign investors. It should be noted that almost all foreign investments are risky and sometimes short-term, and, in addition, the behavior of foreign investors depends too much on the influence of political, economic and psychological factors;

4) the volume of savings of the population is estimated by various sources to be up to 20-30 billion dollars. But, unfortunately, most of these savings are kept in cash by the population. In a market economy, the banking system plays a critical role in the distribution of cash savings. Naturally, therefore, banks must be able to convince the population that they should not only save, but also trust the mechanism that will make their savings work effectively.

6. Methods for evaluating investment projects and the attractiveness of enterprises

Methods for evaluating investment projects.

The basis for making managerial decisions regarding investments is the comparison of the volume of investments with cash receipts (annual) after the project is put into operation.

To compare the size of investments and future cash receipts, it is necessary to take into account the time of inflows and outflows of funds as a result of the investment project, for this it is necessary to carry out the procedure for discounting payment flows. Table 3 presents the classification of investment financing sources.

Table 3

Classification of investment financing sources

All methods of comparing investment projects are based on the availability of various information. This information can be obtained as a result of certain actions:

1) it is necessary to estimate the amount of expected cash flows from the proposed project;

2) it is necessary to determine the discount rate of future cash receipts, which should reflect the expected income from the project by the investor;

3) then you need to calculate the discounted value of each flow, which is expected, when they are summed up, the accumulated value of discounted income is determined. The value obtained during the calculation characterizes the funds reduced by the time of investment and the amount of income from investments. And now we can compare this value with the size of investments;

4) and the final step is to calculate the required investment.

Each of these steps is a very complex and time-consuming process. The degree of reliability of such estimates is not high enough, since the level of uncertainty in each of the cash flow parameters and the discount rate is too high. It is also extremely difficult to draw up the financial section of a business plan given high levels of inflation and economic instability. There are many factors to consider when developing a business plan. Let's name some:

1) factors that characterize the trend of industry expansion;

2) the possibility of changing the position of the enterprise in this market and ways to enter new markets;

3) change in the financial capabilities of partners;

4) availability of additional volumes of material and financial resources.

But even these factors can become secondary, provided that the need for investment is determined for reasons of the country's economic security or environmental problems.

Consider the methods that serve as the basis for decision-making in investment policy. The most common in domestic and foreign literature are:

1) determination of the payback period of investments - payback period - PP;

2) calculation of the average return on investment - AR;

3) calculation of net present value - NPV;

4) determination of the internal rate of return - IRR.

The payback period is usually understood as the number of years required to return the initial investment. Previously, this indicator was the most widely used method. Its main advantage lies in the ease of calculation and interpretation. And one of the disadvantages of this indicator is that it does not take into account the impact of cash flows beyond the payback period. And besides, if undiscounted cash flows are used, then this method does not take into account differences between projects with the same cumulative income, but with a different distribution of such income over the years.

When using the second option for calculating the payback period, when discounted cash flows are used, this disadvantage is eliminated.

Also, this method is very actively used when we talk about investments with a high degree of risk. Then the main decision-making criterion is the speed with which the investment pays off. The payback period characterizes the period in which absolutely no additional income was received on the invested funds. Such returns must come in years that are beyond the payback point. And therefore, the payback period should be compared with the value of the investment life cycle, i.e., the period of time during which the investment project should generate income. If this period exceeds the calculated payback period, then the period during which the enterprise will have additional income for investments in fixed capital must be determined. In the case when the payback period and the life cycle coincide, the enterprise will incur losses in the form of hidden costs. This is due to the fact that income could be received on the invested funds.

The method of average return on investment according to the principles of calculation is very close to the payback period. It is determined by dividing the average annual net profit by the average cost of investments.

The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account the time component of cash flows. The remaining two methods are based on comparing the value of the initial investment with the total amount of discounted cash flows over the life cycle of the investment. Where cash flows are net income plus depreciation.

To determine the discounted value, you must first determine the discount rate. This rate in investment calculations represents the level of possible profitability from the considered project. After that, the amount of discounted cash flows that were during the entire life cycle of the investment is determined. This amount is compared to the initial cost of the project. This implies such a concept as net present value, which is the difference between these two values. If at the end of the calculations a positive value is obtained, then the investment project can be accepted, since the total cash flow during the life cycle of the investment will cover the capital investments, an increase in the market value of the enterprise will provide the desired level of return on investment. If the NPV is negative, the project is rejected because the desired rate of return and investment cannot be covered.

From the foregoing, we can conclude that at high discount rates, the value of cash flows will differ significantly from receipts in the corresponding period. So, with a shortage of funding sources, preference is given to short-term projects.

The calculation of the internal rate of return is based on the same methods as the net present value. But here a different task is posed, which is to determine the level of return on investment. This method will ensure that the discounted values ​​of income and expenses are equal throughout the life cycle. It can be concluded that IRR corresponds to the discount rate of cash flows if NPV = 0.

It should be noted that given the crisis situation in the Russian economy, the effectiveness of using quantitative methods in assessing investment projects decreases. The uncertainty of the economic situation affects the quality of forecasts and because of this, there is an increased risk in assessing investments. High inflation explains the need to take future cash flows into account. All this does not mean that we should abandon the use of the methods discussed, but only emphasizes that their use must be approached with greater care and caution.

Evaluation of the investment attractiveness of the enterprise.

Based on world practice, the assessment of the proposed project is carried out in the presence of the necessary data, such as:

1) cash flow;

2) balance sheets;

3) income statement.

For European and Russian firms, the main indicator of investment is the payback period and return on assets. In Japanese companies, everything is different, where the leading role belongs to the strategic assessment of the position in the market. To assess the investment activity of the United States, two indicators are usually used:

1) investment efficiency;

2) residual income.

As for the stages that are used in the process of making investment decisions, at the moment there are three main ones:

1) the amount of investments and identification of sources of financing;

2) assessment of expected cash flows from the implementation of the investment project;

3) assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise and the chances of its participation in investment activities.

1. Perhaps the most important stage in assessing investment attractiveness is the analysis of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. With its help, the attractiveness and prospects of a given enterprise are assessed from the point of view of the possibility of mobilizing available sources.

Denote what is the financial condition of the enterprise. The financial condition of an enterprise is a concept and its characteristics, which are based on an assessment of the effectiveness of the allocation of funds, the availability of the necessary financial base, the organization of settlements and the stability of solvency. As you know, financial reporting data serve as a source of information to characterize the financial condition, these data are evaluated for a clearly defined period.

Very widespread are various methods created to assess the financial position of an enterprise, which are based on the analysis of a system of financial ratios.

With all the widest variety of existing methods using financial ratios, their significant and main differences are determined by the following circumstances:

1) the degree of diversity of financial ratios that are used in the analysis;

2) principles for assessing the impact of these coefficients;

3) methods for obtaining a general assessment of the state of finance in the enterprise.

2. In the context of economic downturns that are typical for our country, it is very important to focus on enterprises that remain profitable in any difficult economic situation. Such information can be obtained on the basis of the dynamics of the enterprise's profit for a certain number of previous periods according to the profit and loss statements.

3. Based on the data of the same report, the ratios of the coefficients for increasing the proceeds from the sale of goods, services and the total value of assets are determined. If we observe that the growth rates of revenue are greater than the growth rates of assets, then we can safely declare an increase in the efficiency of the use of enterprise resources. If, on the contrary, the value of assets increased faster than the proceeds from the sale, then the conclusion is that the efficiency of the use of resources fell.

4. The presence or absence of the company's own working capital is extremely important. The amount of these funds is determined as the difference between current assets and short-term liabilities. The presence of own working capital is the most important indicator of the financial strength of the enterprise and reliability for partners.

5. Analysis of the range of manufactured products is of undoubted interest to investors. Such an analysis is considered from the point of view of the interaction of fixed and variable costs in the system of its cost. Businesses that have a very high level of fixed costs in their total amount of production are extremely susceptible to the slightest changes in sales volume.

Fixed costs These are those costs, the amount of which does not change with a change in the volume of production. These include, for example: rent for premises, salaries of managers, etc.

In the event that the volume of sales of goods falls, fixed costs will remain at the same level, and as a result, profits will fall even more than revenue. Variable costs change in the same way as the volume of production. Thus, we can conclude that the business risk in enterprises where there are more fixed costs is much higher than where variable costs prevail.

6. In the reports of the enterprise, special attention should be paid to the presence of losses, loans and credits not repaid on time, and necessarily overdue receivables and payables. The next stage of the analysis is an assessment of the financial condition of the enterprise. This assessment is carried out using a system of financial ratios.

With all their diversity, they should include indicators of such areas for assessing the financial condition.

The first group is liquidity indicators.

The second group - indicators of financial stability.

The third group - indicators of business activity.

The fourth group - indicators of profitability.

The choice and justification of evaluation criteria against which the financial ratios of a particular enterprise can be compared is a particular problem. First of all, it must be taken into account that there cannot be uniform values ​​of coefficients for all enterprises due to the specifics of technological processes and the labor intensity of manufactured products. For this reason, indicators of the best enterprises in the industry or industry average values ​​of financial ratios should be used. The availability of information on the relevant indicators provides an opportunity to obtain for each group of coefficients an assessment of the category in which the corresponding enterprise falls. There are three categories here:

1) below average level;

2) average level;

3) the level is above average.

If such guidelines are not available, when assessing financial ratios, it remains possible to track their dynamics over periods and describe the trend in their change. The next step is to interpret according to three trends:

1) favorable, which improves the economic condition of the enterprise;

2) unfavorable, causing a deterioration in the economic condition;

3) neutral, when financial ratios remain in the same position.

By calculating the balance of positive and negative points, you can get a general conclusion about changes in the financial condition of the enterprise.

7. Investment process as a factor of anti-crisis management

Any socio-economic system can achieve its highest success only if there is a basic indicator, which is that this system must be in a state of steady development.

Development is the acquisition of a new quality, which determines the strengthening and sustainability of the enterprise's life and its growth.

An enterprise runs the risk of becoming uncompetitive, no matter how successfully it functions, if the goal of management is not to master new technologies, on the basis of which it is possible to produce new types of products of higher quality and at the lowest cost.

Non-competitiveness - weakening positions in the sales market, a decrease in the number of consumers of products and a decrease in profits.

More recently, this problem was especially relevant for the economy of our country, since it was at the stage of transition to a market economy. A characteristic feature of the then situation in the Russian economy was the general decline in production and competitiveness of products, the lack of interest of the majority of producers and the implementation of innovations.

The crisis in the country's economy is exacerbated by an innovation crisis, which manifests itself in a number of factors:

1) reducing the manageability of the processes of creation and implementation of innovations;

2) lack of funding sources;

3) winding down the activities of research teams.

With this in mind, the search for solutions to the problems of managing innovative processes is the most important goal of anti-crisis management.

In parallel, the features and nature of the development of innovative technologies are determined by the general economic situation and the patterns of its development, which are directly characteristic of the innovation sphere. Their study proceeds within the framework of the theory of innovations from the moment of its origin.

Edward Deming is a famous American economist. The entire Japanese industry owes its birth, development and worldwide success to him. He wrote the book "Out of the Crisis", in which he outlined his corporate management program. This program is that "the success of some breeds difficult problems for others."

And Deming formulated its essence in 14 famous principles. He encourages the management of all companies to follow these principles. Let's name some of them:

1) strive to ensure that the improvement of goods and services is constant. Your goal is to be competitive, provide jobs and stay in business;

2) create a system for training personnel for existing vacancies;

3) constantly strive to improve the production and service system in order to improve quality and productivity, and accordingly, continuously reduce costs;

4) implement a global training and self-improvement program;

5) ensure that every employee participates in the change system;

6) Form an effective leadership team.

In practice, these principles are inevitably associated with the formation of an effective system of innovative enterprise management.

They allow the company to function successfully without facing crisis situations.

Theoretical knowledge, which makes it much easier to understand the structure of the innovation process based on innovation cycles, is an important condition for perceiving the goals and objectives of the innovative development of an enterprise.

J. Schumpeter is an outstanding Austrian economist, who made the greatest contribution to the development of the theory of innovation. At the beginning of the last century, he developed his theory of economic development.

In his opinion, innovation is the basis of economic growth. In accordance with the classification developed by him, innovations are:

1) the production of a new, previously unknown to consumers good. Either the creation of this good of a new quality;

2) the development of a new sales market, in which this industry of this country was not represented before;

3) finding or obtaining a new source of raw materials;

4) the introduction of a new method of production, previously unknown to the industry, based on scientific discoveries.

5) carrying out an appropriate reorganization.

N. D. Kondratiev is the author of the theory of large market cycles.

He is a representative of Russian researchers who have made a significant contribution to the development of the theory of innovation. With the help of the theory of N. D. Kondratiev, many specialists in the field of management got the opportunity to study the causes of recessions in industry and determine possible ways to overcome crises through innovative capital renewal.

R & D - research and development work.

In the initial phase of R&D, theoretical studies and various developments were carried out. As a result of their implementation, new knowledge, ideas, and useful information of the highest quality appeared.

Phases of the product life cycle.

There is a phase of technological development of production, the main objectives of which are considered to be its preparation for the use of the results of development and provision of the necessary conditions. Here we observe the interaction of science and production, on which depend:

1) the timing of the introduction and the start of mass production of new products;

2) the pace of development of innovations.

There is also a phase of replication of new products, the essence is stable production, designed to meet the needs of society in specific types of products.

The last phase shows the stage at which the market reaches saturation.

Then there is a decrease in sales volumes, ensuring demand.

It is possible to identify a number of conclusions arising from the study of the product life cycle.

These conclusions should be kept in mind when studying the strategy of the innovation process.

1. Indicators of change in profits and sales volume clearly show cases of successful introduction of innovations to the market. The increase in profits is significant even after offsetting all R&D costs requiring investment.

But in any case, there is a considerable risk of failure of an innovation introduced to the market, since uncertainty is inherent in the innovation process.

2. Initial success depends on the ability to develop an undeniably new product. But the subsequent profit depends on marketing and the level of production.

8. Innovative potential of enterprises, its role in anti-crisis management

The process of forming an innovation system is affected by the level of the enterprise's innovative potential, i.e. its ability to achieve its goals. The implementation of these goals acts as one of the ways to obtain high profits, increase competitive opportunities in the market, solve the problem of survival and specifically the crisis problem. The more successfully the enterprise avoids crisis situations, the greater the innovative potential of the enterprise.

There are managerial and technical factors that determine the innovative potential of an enterprise:

1) the state of the control system;

2) the level of development of production;

3) type of organizational structure;

4) current policy trends;

5) understanding the need for changes and the readiness of the staff for them.

Factors that determine the level of innovation potential can be divided into the following groups:

1) factors of the innovation process as a directly independent object of management;

2) environmental factors;

3) factors of the internal environment.

This group is a set of its own internal capabilities as a complex system that determines its development.

Setting goals, developing projects and innovative solutions - these elements of the innovation process are highlighted here in the first place.

The composition consists of the capabilities of the enterprise. These opportunities are manifested in a wide range of aspects:

1) financial and economic situation;

2) the position of the organizational structure of management;

3) organizational and technical level of the communication system;

4) the value of material and innovative resources.

5) professionalism and decisiveness of managerial personnel.

The factors presented in Table 4 below have a strong influence on the development of innovative potential.

Table 4

Factors influencing the development of innovations

Distinctive features of innovative enterprises:

1) it is necessary to organize a special group that could be responsible for the creation of new ideas;

2) this group should search for sources of information;

3) stimulation of the creative activity of the staff;

4) encouragement by managers of innovative activity of employees;

5) a strict innovation management strategy.

Analyzing these signs, it should be noted that if the first four signs characterize the organizational policy of the company, then the fifth is the need for an innovative strategy that creates conditions for the development of new ideas.

The innovation strategy closely interacts with the principles of entrepreneurial management.

It requires the leader to:

1) the ability to foresee;

2) courage and realism;

3) entrepreneurial approach;

4) imagination;

5) initiative.

The ability to determine priorities is the most important condition for management. Managers are responsible for the innovation strategy. The related task of management is to:

1) identify managerial potential;

2) periodically review the talent potential of their employees;

3) clearly establish the goals of management training;

4) allocate appropriate resources.

There are two types of innovation strategy:

1) adaptive - characterized by the fact that the company uses innovation as a response to changes taking place in the market. This is done in order to maintain their positions in market conditions, in other words, in order to survive. This strategy is characterized by the concept of efforts with the help of some changes and improvements in existing products, technologies, markets, often in line with established, traditional ways for this organization to achieve success. This problem most often faces enterprises that occupy strong positions in a particular industry, but have not been able to abandon their usual approaches. Organizations with an adaptive strategy can only continue on the path that has led them to success in the past if competitive conditions remain relatively stable. But with this approach, there is no way to overestimate problem-solving methods if conditions change dramatically. This is the danger of an adaptive approach;

2) competitive - here innovation is used as a starting point for success. Innovation is a means of achieving competitive advantage. This strategy is based on a creative approach and involves a feedback analysis of the innovative environment of the enterprise. It consists of factors of innovative potential. This strategy requires continuous innovation and improvement of the enterprise through continuous assessment in the field of ways to analyze and solve problems.

The clearest example of such a strategy is the South Korean conglomerate Samsung. Now it consists of 25 companies that produce a wide range of products: computers, trucks, construction equipment, marine vessels, etc. Samsung has been on the market for more than fifty years, at first it only copied samples and other people’s products, but now it has numerous developments in the field of electronics. The specifics of its strategy are intensive investments in research, development, production development and training of qualified personnel. Every year they spend 2,5 billion dollars for these purposes. One aspect of Samsung's strategy is to transfer assembly shops for simple products to countries with cheap labor.

Scholars identify four levels of organizational experience:

1) the level of the external environment - competitors, consumers, conditions;

2) the level of enterprise actions - innovative strategy and management methods;

3) the level of methods and processes for identifying, defining and solving problems (level of knowledge, culture);

4) the level of organizational consciousness, which includes the three previous ones.

There are organizations whose goal is to use all levels of organizational expertise. Such organizations often experiment and analyze failures and achievements, draw conclusions. Two important aspects of creativity: personal flexibility - the ability to change one's behavior under the influence of reality.

Managers must be able to give up habits, expand the possibilities of their behavior; willingness to take risks. The main task here is to free managers from the fear of losing.

9. Formation of innovative infrastructures as a condition for overcoming the crisis

One of the main objectives of the economic policy of developed and developing countries is the creation of innovative structures. With the help of these structures it is possible to stabilize the economic situation. They are usually created during a period of economic recession, which is accompanied by: job cuts; reduction of budget allocations for scientific development. Nowadays, such innovative structures are very popular: scientific and technical parks, technopolises, high technology centers, business incubators.

Technoparks - provide new jobs, promotes the transition of production to new technologies. Technoparks are usually divided into:

1) research - satisfy the need for effective scientific research;

2) industrial - are engaged in the creation of jobs and industrial premises;

3) technological - help organize small industries and commercialize the results of scientific and technical developments.

Business incubators are created for the development of small science-intensive enterprises. The reasons for their creation are presented in Table 5.

Table 5

Reasons for creating business incubators, technology parks and technology centers in world practice

All the reasons listed above are relevant for our country.

Management of the innovation process requires social mechanisms. This is mainly due to the uncertainty inherent in innovation activities. There is always a risk that the price of developed innovative solutions will be higher or new products will fail in the market. Investment inefficiency is closely related to the possibility of commercial success.

By creating a special program that supports the innovation process, this problem can be solved. Innovative infrastructure is an organizational, financial and credit, material and information base for creating conditions that can contribute to:

1) provision of services for the development of innovative activities;

2) efficient allocation of funds.

The creation of an innovative structure depends on the level of economic development of the country. If this level is large enough, then we can observe such a process as softization and serving.

Softization - increasing the role of non-material and non-material factors of production, informatization of society.

Serving - is closely intertwined with the concept of softization and means the advanced development of the service sector.

An innovative infrastructure in a transforming society can help science enter the market environment and develop entrepreneurship in the scientific and technical field. It is for this reason that its formation is determined by the state of the market infrastructure.

The directions in which the innovation infrastructure distributes risk:

1) by phases of the innovation process;

2) between venture participants;

3) reduces the risk of investing in a certain region;

4) between the state and institutional investors.

Authors: Babushkina E. A., Biryukova O. Yu., Vereshchagina L. S.

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>> Forward: Human factor of crisis management (Characteristics of personnel management of a crisis enterprise. System of anti-crisis personnel management. Style, types, conditions for developing personnel policies at a crisis enterprise. Principles and methods of personnel management of a crisis enterprise. Strategy of behavior of an anti-crisis manager. Regulation of labor relations in anti-crisis management processes. social partnership in anti-crisis management . Negotiating with trade unions. Main directions of action of trade unions in a crisis. Causes of conflicts in a crisis enterprise. Anti-crisis conflict management)

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