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Lecture notes, cheat sheets
Crisis management. Crises in macro- and microdevelopment trends (lecture notes)
Directory / Lecture notes, cheat sheets Table of contents (expand) Lecture No. 1. Crises in macro- and microdevelopment trends 1. The concept of crisis in socio-economic development In the works of economists, there is no single point of view on crises in the development of various systems. In Russia, the point of view dominated that crises are characteristic only of the capitalist mode of production and cannot arise under the socialist mode, which is characterized only by "difficulties in growth." Other economists believe that the concept of "crisis" is applicable only to the macroeconomic level, and less acute problems that are caused by an inefficient system of production and management are more suitable for the microlevel. These problems are allegedly not the result of a development crisis, they are not caused by objective trends. If we consider the development of the firm in this way, then there is no need to predict the possibility of a crisis. The concept of "crisis" is closely related to the concept of "risk", which in one way or another affects the process of anti-crisis management of any enterprise. Eliminate the probability of an unfavorable outcome from the risk, and the severity of the risk will disappear, not only crisis, but also quite ordinary mistakes will become unexpected. The problem of crisis can be looked at from the position of the theory of cyclicality. For any socio-economic system, whether it be a social formation, a firm or an enterprise, two factors of its existence are characteristic: functioning and development. Functioning is the maintenance of life, the preservation of functions that determine the qualitative certainty, integrity, essential characteristics. Development is the acquisition of a new quality. Functioning and development are closely interconnected. The relationship between functioning and development is dialectical in nature, implying the certainty and regularity of the onset and completion of crises. Functioning hinders development and is its basis, development interrupts various processes of functioning, but forms the prerequisites for its implementation at a new qualitative level. And there is a cyclical development, which involves the periodic onset of crises. Crises are not necessarily destructive, they can have positive consequences, they can be caused by manageable and uncontrollable factors, the nature of the development of the socio-economic system. Crises can also arise in the functioning processes themselves. These are contradictions between the level of technology and the qualifications of personnel, between technologies and the conditions for their use (climate, premises, production process, compatibility, etc.). Thus, a crisis is the maximum aggravation of contradictions in an organization that threatens its stable life. 2. Causes and consequences of crises The causes of the crisis can be divided into objective, related to the cyclical needs of restructuring, modernization, and subjective, due to management errors, natural (climate, subsoil, water environment, etc.). The causes of the crisis can be divided into external and internal. The former are associated with the action of macro- or foreign economic factors, the latter - with internal factors, with a risky marketing strategy, imperfect production and management, limited innovation and investment policies, and inefficient personnel management. If we agree that a crisis can arise as a result of the action of the whole variety of external and internal factors, we can conclude that the danger of a crisis exists constantly, it must be foreseen and predicted. To effectively manage a crisis, it is necessary to investigate not only its causes, but also its consequences. For example, as a result of a crisis, it is possible to update an organization or liquidate it, improve or aggravate the situation. The crisis can have both positive and extremely negative consequences. They can also develop according to the "domino principle". Crisis situations can be preserved for quite a long time (for example, political). The consequences of a crisis can come down to abrupt changes or a soft exit. And the post-crisis consequences in the company are long and short, reversible and irreversible, quantitative and qualitative. The consequences of a crisis are determined not only by its nature and parameters, but also by the effectiveness of anti-crisis management. The latter depends on professionalism, the system of motivation, forecasting the causes and consequences, the art of management, and effective methodology. 3. Varieties of crises If there is a classification and knowledge of the type of crisis, there are opportunities to reduce its impact, to ensure its painless course. According to the classification, there are general and local crises. General crises cover the entire socio-economic system, local - one or more subsystems. On the issues of the crisis, macro- and microcrises should be indicated. The macrocrisis covers the entire national economic system. A microcrisis extends to a single problem or group of problems. But a crisis, being minimal, can, like the “domino” principle, involve the entire system or the entire development process in contradictions, since all elements are interconnected and interact in the system, problems are solved comprehensively. A crisis covers all elements when there is no management of crisis situations, no measures to localize and reduce its severity, or vice versa, when there is a deliberate motivation for the development of the crisis. Based on the structure of relations in the national economic system and on various development issues, the following types of economic, psychological, organizational, social, and technological crises have been established. Economic crises are caused by sharp contradictions in the economy of a country or an individual economic entity. These include crises in the production and sale of goods, relations between economic agents, crises of non-payments, competitive advantages, bankruptcy, etc. Among economic crises, there are financial crises in the state of the financial system and financial capabilities. Social crises arise when contradictions between different social groups develop. Often social crises are a continuation of economic crises, but sometimes they arise separately. In the totality of social crises, a political crisis should be indicated - contradictions in the political structure of society, a crisis of power, a crisis of contradictions in the interests of various social groups, classes, in the management of society. Organizational crises arise as a result of contradictions in the processes of separation and integration, distribution of functions, design of an organizational structure, as a separation of administrative units. An organizational crisis is manifested by an aggravation of contradictions in the process of organizing production and management, for example, in the form of excessive bureaucratization. Psychological crises are crises of the psychological state of a person, such as stress, a sense of insecurity, job dissatisfaction, fear, legal security. A technological crisis is a crisis of new technological ideas in the face of a need for new technologies. According to the causes of occurrence, crises are divided into natural, environmental, social. The first are caused by human impact on the environment, earthquakes, hurricanes, fires, climate change, floods. At present, it has become especially important to forecast, as well as to recognize crises in the relationship between man and nature - environmental, arising from changes in natural conditions caused by human activities; depletion of resources, pollution of the environment, the emergence of dangerous technologies, neglect of the requirements of the laws of natural balance. Crises can also be predictable (regular) and given (random). Predictable crises can be predicted and arise under the influence of objective development factors - the need to modernize production, business processes under the influence of macroeconomic factors. Unexpected crises arise as a result of errors in management, the action of natural forces, and the intensification of socio-economic processes. A type of predictable crisis is a cyclical crisis, which occurs periodically and has known phases of its onset and course; there are also obvious and latent (hidden) crises. The first ones occur noticeably and are easily recognized. The second ones are hidden, develop unnoticed and are extremely dangerous. Crises are also divided into mild and deep. Deep crises can destabilize parts or the entire socio-economic system. Light, mild crises occur more consistently and painlessly. The totality of possible crises is also divided into short-term and protracted. The time factor is extremely important in a crisis situation; the longer the crisis, the more painful it is. Prolonged ones are painful and difficult. They are usually associated with a lack of skills to manage critical situations, a lack of understanding of the essence and parameters of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences.
Rice. 1. Classification of crises 4. Signs of a crisis The classification criteria of a crisis can also be assessed as its features, "prompting" or determining the assessment of the situation, the development and selection of successful management decisions. The danger of a crisis always exists, so it is important to see the prerequisites for the emergence of crises and determine the harmful consequences of crises. the socio-economic system is a self-regulating system, i.e., mechanisms for restoring equilibrium operate in its existence. And the management system exists in order to ensure less painful and more consistent development of the socio-economic system. Overcoming crises is a manageable process. The success of management depends on the timely recognition of the symptoms of a crisis. The signs of a crisis are differentiated primarily by typological affiliation: scale, severity, problems, causes, area of development, phase of manifestation, possible consequences. In recognizing a crisis, assessing the interconnection of problems is of great importance. Also in the management of the socio-economic system, the so-called monitoring of anti-crisis development should function. But such a prediction requires a clear set of signs and indicators of crisis development, a methodology for their calculation and use in analysis. Prediction of crises is possible by analyzing the factors and process of crisis development. To recognize crises, it is necessary to use the entire system of indicators for assessing the state of the socio-economic system. Therefore, it is necessary to develop new, synthetic indicators in order to more accurately and timely determine the likelihood and moment of crisis situations. Of great importance is not only the system of indicators reflecting the main signs of the crisis, but also the methodology of their practical use. The organization of this work is closely related to the crisis recognition methodology, which implies the presence of specialists, the functions of their activities, interaction in the management system, the status of recommendations or decisions. Crisis diagnosis and forecasting should be put on a professional basis. The way out of the crisis depends on the methods of analyzing significant contradictions and the availability of specialists in the field of anti-crisis management. The existence of the socio-economic system is based on the activity of people. Despite the "human nature" of crises, development is not possible without them. Often the human factor is the prerequisite and source of the crisis. Contradictions of interests and the objective unevenness of their changes affect the inevitability of crises and their positive significance. In the process of system development, the role of a person in its stable development increases, which means not the elimination of the crisis, but the foresight and confident and timely, and if possible, its painless resolution. Thus, anti-crisis development is not a crisis-free process, but overcoming crises as a source of development that is effective for human interests. 5. The essence and patterns of economic crises The root cause, i.e. the possibility of economic crises, is the gap between production and consumption. Within a subsistence economy, there was a direct connection between production and management. The preconditions for economic crises arose and increased with the development of commodity-money relations. The division of labor, the development of specialization and cooperation increased the gap between production and consumption. But with simple commodity production, the likelihood of crises could not turn into a necessity. Goods were then sold mainly in local markets; difficulties with their sale were local in nature and could not cause disruptions in the sales process throughout society. With the development of commodity production and monetary and market relations, the gap between production and consumption increased. In conditions of free competition, economic crises have become an objective pattern. In pre-capitalist modes of production there was underproduction of material goods. Overproduction arose for the first time under capitalism. The essence of the economic crisis is manifested in the excessive production of goods compared to aggregate demand, in the disruption of the process of reproduction of social capital, in the mass bankruptcies of firms. The theory of economic cycles reflects the laws of reproduction, which is impossible without periodic downturns and upswings in production. K. Marx made a significant contribution to the analysis of this issue. He identified the prerequisites for these contradictions and proved their inevitability in conditions of anarchy of production. Non-Marxist schools initially denied the inevitability of economic cycles and argued for the presence of self-regulating mechanisms in the model of a free market economy. Subsequently, economists abandoned extreme views on economic cycles in reproduction processes. The first periodical crisis occurred in England in 1825, where by that time capitalism had become the dominant system. The next crisis in 1836 engulfed Great Britain and the USA. The crisis of 1847 covered almost all the countries of Europe. The first world economic crisis dates back to 1857 and is characterized by the deepest destructive effect on the economy. Crisis of 1873-1878 came in many European countries and the United States and exceeded the previously existing ones in duration. World economic crises occurred in 1900-1903, 1907, 1920, but the world crisis of 1929-1933 became the heaviest and deepest, resulting in countless bankruptcies. After this crisis, the depression was prolonged. In 1937 a new crisis set in, not as severe as the previous one, but developing very painfully. Gross industrial output in the capitalist world fell by 11%, and in the USA - by 21%, the production of cars decreased by 40%. The development and aggravation of this crisis was interrupted by the Second World War of 1939-1945. After the Second World War in 1948-1949. a local economic crisis broke out that affected Canada and the United States. The next economic crises in the capitalist countries took place in 1953 and 1954, 1957 and 1958. The deepest post-war period was the economic crisis of 1973-1975, which affected all capitalist countries and was characterized by a sharp rise in inflation. Its distinctive feature is its combination with serious structural crises in all sectors of production and in the financial system. 6. Causes of economic crises There is no single point of view regarding the causes of economic crises. They, as a rule, differ depending on the period of their occurrence and the country of deployment of crisis processes. For example, one of the most common causes of economic crises is scientific and technological progress. The active part of fixed capital became obsolete within 10-12 years. This required its renewal, which served as a prerequisite for economic growth. Subsequent reductions in cycles (from 10-11 years in the 7th century to 8-4 years in the pre-war years and 5-XNUMX years in the post-war years of the XNUMXth century) are associated with a decrease in the terms for the renewal of fixed capital under the influence of scientific and technological progress in the modern world. K. Marx believed that the reasons for the cyclical nature of capitalist reproduction are in the very nature of capitalism, directly in the contradictions between the owners of the means of production and employees. Representatives of the neoclassical school see various prerequisites for crises in the economy, not connecting them with contradictions between the owners of the means of production and wage workers. The consistent representative of the theory of underconsumption was Joan Robinson, the leader of the left Keynesianism. The cure for crises was to stimulate consumption. Closer to the position of K. Marx are economists who believe that the cause of crises is the lack of correct proportions between industries and economic entities. The theory of disequilibrium is combined with the theory of crises as a product of external conditions - political, demographic, natural. F. von Hayek believed that crises of overproduction arise due to excess funding from the state. According to the psychological theory of the crisis by I. Schumpeter, at each phase of the economic cycle, the population forms its own attitude towards investments. To date, economic science has developed a number of concepts of economic cycles. P. Samuelson, for example, notes the following: monetary theory, which singles out the expansion of bank credit as the cause of the cycle; the theory of innovation, which explains the cycle by using important innovations in production (J. A. Schumpeter, H. Hansen); a psychological theory that interprets the phases of cycles as a consequence of pessimistic and optimistic moods in people (A. S. Pigou); the theory of underconsumption, according to which cycles occur when the share of income going to savings is too large compared to consumption (D. A. Hobson, R. Foster, etc.); the theory of excessive investment, whose supporters believe that the source of a recession can be more excessive than a small investment of funds (F. Hayek, L. Mises, etc.); the theory of sunspots - weather, harvest (W. S. Jevons). Noteworthy is the point of view of a number of domestic economists who distinguish three stages in changing views on economic cycles. The first stage covers the period from the beginning of the XVIII century. until the mid 1930s. XX. At that time, concepts dominated, stating that crises in the economy either do not arise at all in market conditions (J.S. Mill, J.B. Say, D. Ricardo), or they arise by chance and the market economy is able to overcome them independently (J.S. Sismondi, R. Rodbertus, K. Kautsky). The second stage covers the period from the mid-1930s to the mid-1960s. The selection of this period is connected with the studies of J. M. Keynes and his conclusion that the capitalist market contains various types of monopolies and may include varying degrees of state influence. As a means of the most painless way out of the crisis, John. M. Keynes proposed to ensure mandatory state regulation of the economy. The third stage continues from the mid-1960s to the present. Features of this period. 1. Much attention is paid to the distinction between exogenous (internal) and endogenous (external) reasons for the cyclical nature of a market economy, and it is endogenous factors that have been given priority attention. 2. The position of a number of academic economists has been determined, according to which the state in developed countries does not always strive for anti-crisis regulation, smoothing out cyclical fluctuations and stabilizing economic equilibrium, but provokes and supports cyclicality. 7. Cycle phases and types of economic crises The classical cycle of social reproduction consists of four phases. The first phase is a crisis (recession). There is a reduction in the volume of production and business activity, overstocking, falling prices, the number of bankruptcies is sharply increasing, and unemployment is growing. At the same time, in sectors that produce everyday items, production is reduced on a relatively smaller scale, while at the same time, consumers can completely refuse to buy equipment, household appliances, and luxury goods. Correspondingly, the decline in production in metallurgy, heavy engineering, etc., is, as a rule, much greater than in the light and food industries. Also, if in highly monopolized industries during a crisis prices are kept at the same level with a significant decrease in supply, then in industries with intense competition there is a sharp decline in prices with a slight contraction of commodity supply, i.e. monopolies with much lower costs can survive the crisis. The second is depression (stagnation). It is a phase lasting from 6 months to three years of adaptation of an economic entity to new conditions, the phase of the system moving towards a new equilibrium. The owner's confidence is slowly recovering, he does not risk large sums, prices and business conditions are stabilizing. The third is revitalization, restoration. Investments, prices, output volumes, interest rates are growing, unemployment is decreasing. Revival begins with industries producing machine tools and equipment. New businesses are being created. Then a new, higher than before, rise begins. Fourth - rise (boom). This is a phase characterized by the intensification of innovation activity, the emergence of new products and companies, a sharp increase in investment, stock prices, interest rates, prices and wages, as well as overstocking of warehouses with finished products. The recovery is already forming the basis for a new recurring crisis. The initial "push" (cause) of the crisis is the contraction of aggregate consumption, and then begins stagnation, rising unemployment, lower incomes, reduced spending and demand. Taking into account the variety of reasons (pathogens) for the emergence of development cycles, economists propose the following types of cycles: Kondratieff cycles, long-wave cycles, lasting 40-60 years: their main prerequisite is scientific and technological progress and innovation activity. Kuznets cycles: their duration is limited to approximately 20 years, and the determining factors are changes in the sectoral structure and the structure of reproduction. Jagler cycles with a periodicity of 7-11 years, which are the result of the interaction of diverse monetary factors. Kitchin cycles lasting 3-5 years are generated by the dynamics of inventories at enterprises. Private business cycles, covering a period of one to 12 years and existing in connection with fluctuations in investment activity. After Keynes, Western economic thought agreed with the conclusions about the cyclicity of socio-economic development and continued to study the structures and causes of cycles, strenuously looking for ways and means to level the negative consequences of the influence of recession phases on the development of the socio-economic system. So, firstly, cyclicality is a multidimensional phenomenon that is global in nature. Moreover, in specific manifestations, cyclicality was also present in the conditions of a directive-planned economy. Secondly, cyclicity as a whole can also be considered as a peculiar form of ensuring the progressive development of the economy in the conditions of market relations. Thirdly, the development of the socio-economic system does not occur in a circle, but in a spiral, cyclicality is recognized as a form of progressive development of society. Fourthly, it is necessary to deepen objective knowledge about cycles, their causes and find effective means to mitigate their negative consequences. However, there is another point of view: cycles and crises are the result of the peculiarities of the internal development of each country. Cycles are regular, or periodic, repeated with a certain pattern, and irregular. Regular crises of overproduction give rise to a new cycle. Irregular economic crises include intermediate, partial, sectoral and structural ones. The intermediate crisis does not start a new cycle, but suspends the stages of recovery or growth. It is weaker than the periodic one and, as a rule, has a local character. A partial crisis differs from an intermediate crisis in that it does not cover the entire economy, but some sphere of social reproduction. The industry crisis is affecting one of the sectors of the national economy. A structural crisis is a violation of the law of proportional development of the system. It is caused by serious disproportions between sectors, on the one hand, and the output of the most important types of products in physical terms, necessary for balanced development, on the other. 8. Crises of public administration: causes, consequences, overcoming State power, being in its essence social, public, public, has gone through a complex path of development together with society, taking various forms. The institution of power as a concept means education: 1) not naturally occurring, but specially created by people; 2) due to the emergence of any general, public needs, interests and for their satisfaction; 3) on the basis of official political (public) legal decisions, regulations; 4) having the ability to exert power and control influence on society, individual social groups, relationships and processes. A public administration body is a structure established in the established (official, legal) order, performing on behalf of the state any of its functions in accordance with its purpose, possessing organizational unity, its own competence (the range of issues that are within its jurisdiction), powers (the totality of rights and obligations) that he must implement and beyond which he must not go in his activities. A government body can be an official or a specialized structure authorized by the state to implement power and management functions. Bodies of state administration are a set of all subjects of state-administrative activity, including subjects of state power. They are created as a working mechanism of the representative, executive and judicial authorities, that is, the state apparatus, ensuring their better organization and functioning. It is important to emphasize that state power and state authorities are not the same thing. The mechanism for revealing the will of the majority is referendums on the most important state problems, democratic elections. The resources of state power can also be financial, economic, natural, demographic, social, informational, ideological, power. In the arsenal of the most important resources of state power is the right, which makes it possible to control influence, knowledge and competence, which determine the ability of persons vested with authority to make decisions. Resources make it possible to encourage and punish, stimulate and coerce, convince and use all methods, all means for dominating. Thus, state power and management as a way of its implementation is: 1) the right and duty of state bodies to influence the totality of socio-economic relations in the country; 2) the system of public authorities; 3) the activities of persons vested with appropriate powers of authority. A crisis of public administration is a special form of the political system of society, government bodies, accompanied by instability, a decrease in the level of controllability of socio-economic processes, imbalance of political institutions, aggravation of political conflicts, and growing contradictions in society. The essential features of the crisis of public administration are the following: aggravation of economic and social conflicts; the inability of state power to manage growing conflicts, regulate socio-economic processes and relations using the same traditional methods. The governance crisis is developing in stages. The first, initial stage is characterized by numerous conflicts in society. The second stage is the development of conflict situations in society to such an extent when they can no longer be resolved through compromises and reflect a functional breakdown of the mechanisms of government, public institutions, and the inconsistency of structures, forms and methods of management with changed socio-economic conditions. The third stage is the development and aggravation of the crisis, including the collapse of existing political structures and leading to dispersion, depreciation of state power, and the loss by authorities of their essential quality - to exert a controlling influence on social processes. During the transitional period of social development, the main conflict dominant is a comprehensive socio-political conflict that permeates all the most important spheres of public life. The essence of the transition period is that two processes are taking place on a collision course - the dismantling of traditional state institutions, habits and stereotypes in the implementation of power functions, on the one hand, and the build-up of completely new, non-traditional institutional structures, as well as rules and norms of political behavior, on the other. . The transitional period also means a global turn, when carriers of different, sometimes opposing interests and values coexist simultaneously in the economic and political space. This is what is found in conflicts. The specificity of the socio-political conflicts of the transition period lies in the fact that if in conditions of social stability they are predominantly horizontal in nature (struggle within the framework of the regime), then in the transition period they are vertical - the struggle against the regime, for the establishment of a new one. During the transition period, the role of consciousness, superstructural mechanisms, and political and ideological factors increases significantly and often becomes decisive. The breaking down of old attitudes and the establishment of new ones in the public consciousness is accompanied by a stage of polarized culture, when extremely radical movements dominate over centrist-moderate ones. In general, public administration conflict, or political conflict, is always a confrontation over the organization, exercise or redistribution of power. Resolving and eliminating these conflicts, finding compromise and agreement in that particular situation is the most important imperative, the “urgent need” of state power. Tension arises due to the inability to control and regulate this process in a timely manner. The sequence of tactical actions to manage conflict may look like this: institutionalization - establishing norms and rules for conflict resolution; legitimization - making the institutional procedure strictly dependent on the voluntary responsibility of the majority of participants in the conflict to comply with the proposed norms and rules; structuring of opposing groups; reduction of the conflict, i.e. its gradual weakening due to transfer to another level. Of course, the government is not obligated to intervene every time in any form of conflict. There are other institutions that contribute to the resolution of conflicts "bypassing" the state. The intervention of state-administrative bodies is necessary if conflicts threaten the interests of individuals who are not participants in them, if there is a threat to the legal order if the subjects of the conflict commit acts of illegal violence, if there is a threat to national security. A system-wide crisis means that the most important components of society have come to such mutual inconsistency that the imbalance of the system cannot be eliminated without a radical change in the existing socio-economic system. The constituent elements of a political crisis at the stage of a vertical split in society: constitutional and legal crisis - a rupture in the legal space, limitation or actual termination of the Constitution; government crisis - loss of respectability and authority, decreased controllability of the state system and a decrease in state administrative control influence; crisis of the party system; ideological crisis; foreign policy crisis. The regulation of conflicts by state authorities and administration is facilitated by the legal support of their activities, the establishment of a democratic procedure for lawmaking, the action of all state bodies within and on the basis of the law, compliance with legal procedures for resolving disputes - everything that constitutes the fundamental basis and vector of movement of the socio-political system to the legal one. state, civilized rule of law. Another no less important means of preventing crisis situations is streamlining the legal status of state bodies, political parties, public organizations and movements, and local self-government. The specificity of crises in Russia is manifested in the fact that public administration crises usually arise when the credit of trust of lower authorities is exhausted by higher ones and have a pronounced emotional (irrational) character. An indirect confirmation of this is the active use, and often the predominance of moral vocabulary ("who has deceived trust", "lost conscience", etc.). For a vertical (paternalistic) society, conflicts often develop in the plane: the center - the region, the director - the worker, the administration - local residents with a serious blocking of feedback and ways to find consensus. The result is a vicious circle: a real decrease in social tension in a particular city, at an enterprise through the use of confrontational rituals for resolving conflicts, provokes an increase in tension in society as a whole. Another major source of conflict between state power and the population is the alienation on the basis of the diverging interests of citizens and officials (political and state-administrative officials), who, in the opinion of the majority of the population, are guided by the interests not only (and not so much) of ordinary citizens, but of departmental ones. corporate and private. State researchers single out not only sources, but also direct factors, causes that deepen citizens' distrust of the authorities. The first group of reasons can be conditionally called technological, when state authorities, due to certain circumstances (lack of appropriate structures and specialists), do not take or cannot explain to citizens the goals and methods of a particular policy, argue (justify) the nature and content of their activities in conditions in which they are forced to work and make decisions. The second group of reasons is cultural and historical in nature, in particular the prolongation of the negative attitude of citizens towards the political-bureaucratic nomenklatura, which has appropriated everything and everyone and retained all the institutions of the Russian Federation state. The third group of reasons is organizational in nature, associated with the inability of the state apparatus due to its low competence, lack of professionalism and other, deeper reasons to organize the practical implementation of government decisions. In this group of reasons, the style and methods of work of civil service bodies are of particular importance. The fourth group of reasons is of a political and ideological nature. The creation of programs for real economic recovery and social activity in other areas that unite disparate social forces to achieve universally significant and long-term goals helps to overcome the alienation of society and government. Reform - this is a profound transformation of political, economic and social relations carried out by government authorities in order to qualitatively update the public administration system. Reforms are carried out as an evolutionary development of society, based on traditions, established state and social foundations, these are transformations of a progressive-conservative nature, when part of the “past” is preserved not for the sake of the past, but for the sake of the future. If reforms, in their methods and means, lead to an interruption of evolutionary development, a break in traditions, such accelerated modernization can be defined as a “revolution from above.” The failure of socio-economic reforms, the inability of the state power system to organize itself and fulfill public functions lead to the critical point from which the structural and functional crisis develops into a dysfunctional, system-wide crisis. This is a dangerous type of crisis, which can only be avoided under the conditions of crisis management. 9. Crises in the development of the organization In modern literature on management, the concept of "organization" is considered as some relatively separate structural unit in the general system of social division of labor. The criterion for such isolation is economic independence, organizational integrity (the existence of an internal and external environment), the presence of specialized information structures. An organization can be understood as a separate firm, enterprise, office, joint-stock company, bank, insurance company, tourism company, etc., as well as structural units of the public administration system. The possibility of a crisis is determined by risky development, which manifests itself in the likelihood of a crisis, the danger of crisis situations. Each organization has its own competitive advantages, its ability to implement it is subject to the laws of the cyclical development of the entire socio-economic system. It can be factors external and internal, general and specific. External factors characterize the economic environment that affects the organization, on which it cannot but depend. The systemic crisis of the country's economic system cannot but affect the economy of an individual company. The degree of influence of the crisis of the national economic system on the company depends on the field of activity, form of ownership, size, activities, as well as on internal factors, such as the professionalism of management, personnel, social atmosphere, economic potential, etc. An organization can successfully counteract crisis phenomena or do not use the methodology of anti-crisis management. Each organization has its own combination of causes and conditions for the development of the crisis. Factors of occurrence of crises in the organization can be different. But it is very important to see the symptoms of crisis development and timely apply the methods of anti-crisis management. It is necessary to distinguish between the factors, symptoms and causes of the crisis. Symptoms are manifested in the criteria and in the dynamics of indicators that reflect the functioning and development of the organization. The problem of the emergence of crises in an organization can also be approached from a systemological standpoint. The system in the course of its life activity can be either in a stable or in an unstable state. Distinguish between static and dynamic stability. The stability of the system is influenced by external and internal factors. If stability is mainly dictated by external factors, then it is customary to call it external, if internal factors - then internal. The analysis of transition periods shows that in the most general form, depending on the degree of changes occurring in a given time interval, all transition periods can be classified into three levels. The first level, hereinafter referred to as homeostatic, is associated with such changes that affect only the behavior of the system, but do not change its structure and elemental composition. The second level, hereinafter referred to as the innovative one, is associated with such changes that affect the structure and elemental composition of the system. The third level, hereinafter referred to as the bifurcation level, is associated with such changes that significantly affect the structure and elemental composition of the system. Naturally, the proposed objective processes can be superimposed by subjective factors that are associated with states that differ from those accepted. As a result of the vital activity of systems, there is a change in the tendencies of their existence. Periods of change in the trends in the life of systems as a result of the exhaustion of the internal capabilities of the system (potential of the system) or under the influence of external factors are transitional periods or, according to the accepted classification, in some cases, crises. In management, knowledge about the crisis, its possible manifestations in the life of the system is the basis for the development of an effective program of anti-crisis measures. One of the most rational is to identify a five-stage development cycle. The first stage is called the explerent stage. It characterizes the origin of the company in a market economic environment, the formation of its initial structure. This is the stage of hidden (latent) development of future integrity. Signs of complete external differentiation and internal integration of the firm have not yet taken shape, but some of its features, premises, and potential characteristics have already appeared. Such organizations (firms) are called explerent. The company continues to grow and expand and enters a new stage - the patient one. In connection with growth trends, it is necessary to restructure, separate areas of management activities, and increase performance. This is the stage of conquering any segment of the market, strengthening one's market positions, developing a competitive strategy, and increasing the role of marketing in the management of the company. At this stage, too, there is a danger of a crisis. But it is imperceptible, since internal development is characterized by stable trends. The third stage in the development of an organization is violet. The company is gaining a stable position in the market. The organization can compete successfully. Violenti - these are firms with an active marketing strategy, mass production of products in demand, large innovative enterprises. There are three types of such organizations: national violet, international violet, destructured violet. National violets almost always organize venture capital organizations, including executing organizations related to innovation, with modern organizational structures. In the process of development, companies often lose their former dynamism, gaining stable stability instead (their position is called the position of the "powerful elephant"). Stability is achieved by large size, the presence of a wide international network of branches, diversification. In a fiercely competitive environment, it is difficult to maintain leadership in innovation, but extensive market penetration allows for a more stable position in the competition. At the same time, such a situation is also possible. A firm that has fallen into a period of crisis development often loses its independence or slowly moves to secondary roles in economic development, turning into a destructured violet. The fourth stage is called commutative. It represents the state of the firm in a period of decline, when development comes to a standstill. The structure is simplified, and competitors who have grown and strengthened are being squeezed out of the market space and become more efficient. This is how commuting firms appear - small and medium-sized enterprises oriented mainly to regional markets, using the achievements of firmviolents. The fifth stage is called lethal. It is characterized by the destructuring of the firm, the cessation of its existence in its former form. At this stage, there are firms - flyers. These are disintegrating firms or firms diversifying with a complete change in the profile of activity. Such profound changes, of course, can give rise to a whole range of complications of a very different nature, including market positions. In the practice of anti-crisis management, it is very important to be able to diagnose the onset of a crisis, to separate changes in the transition period from changes in the normal functioning of the company. Authors: Babushkina E. A., Biryukova O. Yu., Vereshchagina L. S. >> Forward: Possibility, necessity and content of crisis management (The need and possibility of crisis management. Signs and features of crisis management. The effectiveness of crisis management. The concept of crisis management technology. General scheme of the management mechanism in a crisis situation. Technology for developing management decisions in crisis management. Parameters for controlling crisis situations in crisis management mechanisms. Analytical basis of government regulation of a crisis situation. The role of the state in anti-crisis management. Types of state regulation of crisis situations)
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