Possible emergencies of a social nature on the territory of Russia. OBZhD

BASICS OF SAFE LIFE
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Possible emergencies of a social nature on the territory of Russia. Basics of safe life

Fundamentals of Safe Life Activities (OBZhD)

The essential characteristics of dangerous and emergency situations discussed above, as well as their classification, allow us to analyze the possibility of such phenomena in modern Russia and its regions from a scientific point of view. Despite the fact that at present the socio-economic, political and international position of Russia has somewhat stabilized, it is premature to talk about its well-being and security. The economic development of the country is uneven and depends on both internal and external factors. In conditions of inflation and the existence of unemployment, the social position of most people is unstable. In a number of remote regions (the Far North, Siberia, the Far East, etc.), the problem of energy supply is acute. The population suffers from crime and corruption. The threat of terrorist acts remains, conflicts on national and religious grounds take place. All this gives no reason to consider Russia's security reliable.

The National Security Concept of the Russian Federation quite definitely formulates real threats to Russian security, which include:

the state of the Russian economy, economic disintegration, the weakening of the scientific, technical and technological potential of the country;
imperfection of the system of organization of state power and civil society;
the socio-political polarization of Russian society, the increase in the proportion of the population living below the poverty line, the growth of unemployment;
criminalization of public relations, the growth of organized crime, the increase in the scale of terrorism;
erosion of the unified legal space of the Russian Federation, imperfection of the legal framework, legal nihilism, outflow of qualified personnel from law enforcement agencies, etc.;
exacerbation of interethnic relations (ethno-egoism, ethnocentrism, chauvinism, uncontrolled migration), contributing to the strengthening of nationalism, political and religious extremism, ethnoseparatism and creating conditions for the emergence of conflicts;
the threat to the physical health of the people caused by the crisis in the health care system and social protection of the population, the growth of alcohol and drug consumption;
reduction in the birth rate and average life expectancy, deformation of the demographic and social composition of society, undermining labor resources, weakening the family;
decrease in the spiritual, moral and creative potential of the people;
a threat to the personal safety of citizens, etc.;
threats in the international sphere related to the advancement of NATO to the east, claims to Russian territory, the emergence and escalation of conflicts near the borders of the Russian Federation, international terrorism, etc.;
threats in the information sphere - attempts to oust Russia from both the external and internal information markets, the development by a number of states of the concept of information wars, etc.;
an increase in the level and scale of threats in the military sphere, due to the transition of the United States and NATO to the practice of forceful actions without the sanction of the UN Security Council;
threats in the border area associated with economic, demographic and cultural and religious expansion, increased activity of trans-border organized crime, as well as foreign terrorist organizations;
the activation of the activities of foreign special services and organizations used by them on the territory of the Russian Federation;
environmental, man-made threats.

If these threats are underestimated and ignored, they can lead to a social emergency. In fact, any of their varieties - an economic crisis, a social explosion, a national or religious conflict, a terrorist act, etc. - can become a reality in our country today, and many of them already exist, if not throughout the state, then in one or another his region.

We have already considered the causes and consequences of social emergencies. Now let's illustrate these general provisions with examples from Russian reality.

One of the reasons for the social tension in Russian society was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the difficult period of reform that followed. The deepest crisis that has engulfed our state and society has led to a sharp decline in the standard of living of people in Russia. This is evidenced by the indicators human development index (HDI). This category appeared in the international scientific lexicon in the second half of the 1980s. The leading indicators of the HDI include: life expectancy, level of education, real per capita gross domestic product (GDP), which together reflect the three main qualities of the life of society - a healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living for a person.

Immediately after the start of reforming Russia, all these indicators showed a significant decrease compared to the Soviet period. Significantly reduced life expectancy. In 1985 it was 69,6 years, and in 1995 - 63,8 years, dropping to the level of the 60s. The level of education has also declined. In 1985, its index was 0,833, ten years later, by the beginning of 1995, it was 0,819. The standard of living dropped sharply. At the end of 1994, the incomes of the rich 10% were 15 times higher than those of the poor 10%. The landslide decline in these indicators led to a noticeable drop in the HDI. So, in 1992, i.e., at the very beginning of the reforms, it was 0,849, which allowed Russia to belong to the group of the most developed countries and take 52nd place among 174 states, but by the beginning of 1995, the HDI had dropped to 0,547 , and it moved into the group of countries with an average level of development, being dropped to 119th place.

As a result of some socio-economic and political stabilization, in 1999 Russia already occupied 62nd place in the human development index, and by 2001 it had moved to 55th (between Belize and Malaysia).

Thus, although there is some stabilization of social life, negative trends have persisted, and Russian society is still in the zone of increased social risk, which does not contribute to the sustainability of its socio-economic and political development.

The unfavorable socio-political situation in the country during the period of transition to market relations is also evidenced by the tendency to increase the inequality of the material situation of various segments of the population, which was especially characteristic of the first half of the 0s. The gap in income levels between the poor and the rich in 1990 compared to 1995 increased by almost 1991 times, which was a natural result of high inflation rates, falling production, and this, in turn, led to hard-to-predict negative socio-political , man-made and even environmental consequences.

Technogenic accidents and catastrophes are provoked by the weakening of state control over the state of hazardous industries and technical structures. Buildings and structures left without supervision, including dams and dams, are decaying. Safety precautions are violated in production, in construction, in everyday life, which leads to frequent and destructive accidents. Transport wears out (airplanes, ships, rolling stock of railways, etc.), which makes it more and more dangerous. Sanitary, epidemiological and environmental standards, as well as rules for the storage of dangerous and explosive substances are being violated everywhere. Hazardous chemical, radioactive and explosive substances, etc., fall into private hands. Services predicting dangerous natural phenomena (meteorological, seismic, etc.) cease to function at the proper level. The effectiveness of the work of rescuers, firefighters, medical and other services is declining, which results in serious human and material losses in the event of natural disasters.

In order to prevent such phenomena, governments in developed countries redistribute income through a progressive tax system. At the expense of tax payments subsidies are paid to the least well-to-do strata of the population. There are programs of social insurance and state assistance to the poor, which opens up certain life prospects for them. In Russia, there are no such prospects for the poor. There is also no effective mechanism for the prevention of natural disasters, the prevention of man-made, environmental disasters and the elimination of their consequences. All this is the result of ill-conceived reforms carried out without taking into account national specifics, as well as corruption and criminalization of society, which is quite clearly stated in the National Security Concept of the Russian Federation.

Using the scheme of the danger action mechanism discussed above, we will try to apply it to Russian reality, and in particular to the analysis of possible emergencies of social origin.

Analysis static aspect of dangers, threatening our country shows that sources (subjects) social emergencies can be extremist parties and political movements, terrorists, criminal groups, corrupt officials, specialists in hazardous industries (nuclear power plants, military, chemical research institutes, factories, biological laboratories, etc.) who are able to cooperate with terrorists or criminal elements for a monetary reward etc. A very dangerous subject today for Russia and its citizens is international terrorism, which has unleashed an open campaign to destabilize the situation in Russia. Given the social danger, it is the representatives of these risk groups that should be under the close attention of law enforcement agencies and law enforcement agencies.

Objects crimes of an emergency nature can be people (heads of state, constituent entities of the Russian Federation, local authorities, political parties, representatives of law enforcement agencies, businessmen, employees of defense enterprises, ordinary citizens), as well as objects of industry, infrastructure, transport, social and cultural purposes, etc. e. Concern for ensuring their safety is the most important task of law enforcement agencies.

means, with the help of which social emergencies can be inspired, are artificially caused economic difficulties (inflation, unemployment, non-payment of wages, lockouts, bankruptcy of banks, enterprises and firms, food shortages, etc.), political actions (murders of state and political figures, repressions against the opposition, representatives of national minorities or religious denominations, provocations against foreign citizens and missions, dispersal of peaceful rallies and demonstrations, etc.), military provocations (border conflicts, incidents, border violations, etc.), terrorist acts (at industry, transport, infrastructure, socio-cultural sphere, hostage-taking, etc.), information warfare (initiating the exposure of state, political and public figures in the media, spreading provocative rumors, forming the public opinion necessary for certain circles, etc.) .

Analysis dynamic aspect of hazards shows that social emergencies that are possible in Russia are usually caused by targets hazards discussed above. Such a goal can be the seizure of power, the elimination of the existing system, the exit from the control of the metropolis and the creation of a sovereign nation-state, gaining control over any area of the economy, the struggle of religious denominations for dominance in society, etc.

Impact process subjects of social emergencies on Russia and its regions is destructive in nature, consisting in the loss of state control over social processes, destabilization of society, the collapse of the economy, the growth of crime and violence, and the socio-psychological suppression of people. This impact can be direct, obvious, when its destructiveness is visible, and indirect, when there are no clear signs of destructive processes.

The result of exposure A social emergency on Russian society can be the loss of part of the country's territory as a result of separatist actions of its national subjects, the loss of economic independence, information space, a certain part of the population, areas rich in natural resources; violation of economic ties with remote subjects of the Russian Federation, with near and far abroad; simplification of the structure of the Federation in connection with the withdrawal from its composition of a number of national and regional entities, for example, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Tatarstan, the Far East; loss of the ability of the state and society to develop, weakening of fundamental functions (defense, social support of the population, protection of national interests in the international arena, etc.) and their complete destruction. Although this analysis is predictive, it is quite probable.

Let's consider the regional aspects of emergency situations of a social nature. Using the example of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region, let us single out potential hazards that, under adverse factors, can develop into emergency events.

First of all, attention should be paid to static (permanent) risk factors, associated with the presence in this region of objects vulnerable to social emergencies. These include:

1. Population structure, characterized by a high degree of concentration, social, demographic and national specifics. This makes it easier for extremist groups of various directions to find potential supporters. These include the unemployed, among whom there is a fairly high percentage of young people, intellectual workers who are dissatisfied with their current situation, military men dismissed from the Armed Forces without any social guarantees, representatives of various nationalities and confessions who are outraged by the attitude of the local population towards them, pensioners with their beggarly pension, etc.

2. Transport structure, export communications and infrastructure in general. The largest railway routes connecting the north of Russia with the center pass through the region. If they are blocked or destroyed, not only the region, but the whole country will suffer significant socio-economic and political damage. The region is also vulnerable in terms of export communications (airports, river and sea ports, access roads to them, oil and gas pipelines through which export-import operations are carried out, protective structures, etc.). Any, even minor failures in the functioning of the infrastructure of St. Petersburg and other cities in the region are fraught with its self-destruction, which can cause serious socio-economic and political consequences. This is the reason for the real threat of extremists choosing infrastructure facilities for their actions.

3. Hazardous industries (NPPs, chemical and oil refineries, oil storage facilities, military installations, etc.), accidents at which can lead to serious economic, social, environmental and even political consequences. Most of these facilities are located in the zone of cities or near them and, therefore, within the limits of possible zones of activity of extremist forces capable of the most unexpected actions.

К dynamic (unstable) factors possible emergencies of social origin with all certainty include the following:

1. General decline in the real standard of living of the population in combination with the strengthening of social differentiation and the negative phenomena and processes associated with it. In this regard, the likelihood of emergency situations is especially high in places where social tension due to a sharp differentiation in the incomes of the population is the highest.

2. The critical situation of certain social and professional groups, who during the years of Soviet power were in a relatively privileged position (employees in the field of education, engineering and technical personnel, workers in large industries, military personnel, etc.). Having lost their former social status, they become a factor of socio-political tension and, under certain negative conditions, an object of recruitment by extremist forces.

3. The nature of unemployment which mainly covers people with higher education and young people. With the underdevelopment of the system of social support, retraining and retraining of the population of the region, as well as career guidance for young people, we can expect a further increase in crime, an increase in social tension that can develop into a social emergency.

4. Military training of the population combined with a large mass of unclaimed military potential. There are many military facilities, formations of military and law enforcement agencies in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region (district headquarters, naval base, military educational institutions, military units and formations, military depots and arsenals of weapons, the FSB, police, etc.) . As a result of the reform of the Armed Forces, which has been going on for more than a decade, many military personnel turned out to be unnecessary to the state and unclaimed by society, often without apartments and a solid income. They become objects of recruitment by criminal and extremist structures. In addition, in the region, as, indeed, throughout the country, in addition to military personnel, many men have skills in handling weapons and ammunition. Among them, there is a fairly large proportion of people with experience in combat operations in Afghanistan, Chechnya and other regions, which is easily transformed into behavioral patterns of guerrilla warfare.

Of considerable importance is the fact that the repeated shake-ups of the special services have deprived many qualified employees of social stability and material well-being. Unfortunately, they partially replenished the criminal environment, as a result of which some members of criminal and extremist groups have not only combat experience, but also professional intelligence and counterintelligence skills, which makes them especially dangerous in social terms.

5. Availability of relatively affordable weapons, as well as material and financial resources to support criminal and extremist groups.To a certain extent, this is facilitated by the socio-psychological mood of large groups of the population of the region, dissatisfied with the results of the ongoing reforms, the level and nature of the activity of opposition organizations with an extremist orientation, and other negative factors of modern reality.

To localize the possible manifestations of emergencies of a social orientation on a national and regional scale, preventive work is of great importance. It is necessary to ensure the employment of the population, counteraction to criminal and extremist elements by law enforcement agencies and special services, strengthen the country's defense capability and the combat power of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The mass media and educational institutions are called upon to play a significant role, the task of which is to promote the formation of a civic position and the ideology of security.

Conclusions

Varieties of dangerous and emergency situations are dangerous and emergency situations of social origin, which in their devastating consequences are not inferior, and sometimes even surpass natural, man-made, environmental and other disasters. This is due to reasons related to the activities of man and society, which give these catastrophic phenomena and processes a conscious, sophisticated and purposeful character. Knowledge of the essential characteristics and classification of these social anomalies serves as a theoretical and methodological basis for analyzing the possibility of their occurrence on the territory of Russia and its regions.

The proposed analysis of the consequences of social cataclysms allows us to give only an approximate forecast of potential dangers and threats that, under certain conditions, can become a reality if our state, society, specific people responsible for security are unable to resist them. To localize possible emergencies of a social orientation on the scale of both the country and the regions, preventive work is of great importance, as well as counteraction to criminal and extremist elements by law enforcement agencies and reliable provision of the state's defense capability as a guarantee against external threats. Today, Russia is gradually beginning to emerge from the crisis, but it is still far from complete prosperity.

Authors: Gubanov V.M., Mikhailov L.A., Solomin V.P.

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