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BASICS OF SAFE LIFE
General information about the performance of economic calculations in emergency situations. Basics of safe life
Directory / Basics of safe life Socio-economic factors can become the main ones in matters of ensuring the protection of the population and territories. In this case, it is often necessary to take into account changes in the physicochemical parameters of the environment and their impact on the economy. Now it is necessary to recognize the views that have recently existed on the relationship between man and nature as deeply erroneous. It is unacceptable to consider nature only as a human habitat, because such a point of view does not allow for the possibility of a powerful retaliatory strike on its part. It is becoming more and more obvious that man is only one of the countless creations of nature, and if he goes beyond the limits allowed to him, he will violate the overall stability of the natural system, which it cannot allow, like any stable system. It should be recognized that a person's ability to predict even the largest-scale consequences of his intervention is limited. A lot of money will have to be spent on restoring production in the country, industry, region and industrial facility. When calculating, it is necessary to take into account the possibility of violating economic growth plans and creating the necessary reserves. When calculating the stability, first of all, the possible damage and casualties from the shock wave and broadband light radiation are estimated, which directly depend on the destruction and fires that have occurred. The costs of creating civil defense defense structures, preparing protective equipment, creating the infrastructure of the region, training reconnaissance formations, creating, equipping and maintaining civil defense formations in constant readiness for action are also estimated. Since machine equipment is more often damaged not from the direct impact of air-blast, but from falling fragments of collapsing structures, it is necessary to use special protective devices to prevent this. For example, to protect the jig boring machine of the tool shop, which ensures the manufacture of molds, gauges and tooling for the entire plant, a protective device has been developed and manufactured in the form of a metal casing that can withstand dynamic shock. load up to 40 kPa. It took 823 kg of metal to make the casing. According to the constituent elements of the casing, the type of metal (profile, angle, mesh, wire rod), the cost of these components and the total cost of the casing are determined. Knowing the number of machines and fixtures to protect them, it is easy to calculate the total costs. It is necessary to take into account the probable damage and casualties from the effects of all types of infection, as well as from secondary damaging factors. The damage may also be significant due to disruption of supply, industrial relations, geographical dispersion of suppliers of components, raw materials and materials, disruption of the transport network. All this is easy to calculate. Even if the range of delivery of the plant is hundreds of items, then for each of them there must be the necessary data. For example, the daily need for rental is 7 tons; norm of irreducible stock of 140 tons for 20 days; increase in reserve norms for sipi "Threat of attack" up to 180 tons; subject to storage at an industrial facility 98 tons, and in a suburban area 42 tons. Peacetime supplier - base No. 2, Yasny, distance by rail - 680 km. Double supplier - base No. 5, pos. Blue, by rail - 300 km, by road - 175; The most vulnerable elements of an industrial facility include crane and railway tracks, a boiler room, a cue station, and a main electrical substation. For each point and type of delivery, the costs are calculated, including the organization of storage sites, security, loading and unloading operations, rent, and the costs of transferring the economic facility to a special mode of operation, the production of components by the plant, ensuring the stability of gas, water, steam, , power supply of an industrial facility. Costs to be taken into account expenses for the implementation of measures to reduce the risk of exposure to secondary damaging factors:
The higher the concentration and capacity of production, the higher the socio-economic consequences in emergency situations. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the limit of increasing power per unit area and the prospects for the development of OE. Thus, economic efficiency conflicts with the socially significant efficiency of improving safety. Indeed, in order to increase income from industry at minimal cost, it is necessary to use cities with developed infrastructure, and this, in an emergency, will lead to an increase in losses and damage. To ensure the adoption of acceptable decisions and their implementation, it is necessary to increase the costs of implementing security measures, educating the population and creating protective equipment. Measures must be taken to reduce the concentration and overall production of armaments, energy consumption and energy production; ensured the use of highly productive technologies and equipment. It is especially important to provide for the costs of providing blackout, microfilming the necessary technical documentation and ensuring its reliable storage. After the analysis of the damage, a list of the necessary resources for carrying out priority restoration work can be established. If the foundry needs to close up window openings with shields, install temporary partitions and awnings, fasten walls and ceilings, partially seal the battens, selectively repair the roof, iron the doors and paint them in light colors, then the calculations can be performed in the form of a table (see page 306). It is also necessary to take into account the costs of the equipment and mechanisms used, to ensure their performance: truck cranes - 6 units, two of them with a lifting capacity of at least 16 tons and with an outreach of -16 m; bulldozers - 4 pcs.; excavators - 3 pcs.; mine lifts - 7 pcs. In the presence of the specified materials and equipment, the OE personnel in the amount of 1000 people will perform priority restoration work within 10 days.
No less can be the damage from natural disasters. When organizing work to reduce losses and damage from earthquakes, it is necessary, first of all, to determine the costs of creating (improving) a network of seismic observation, warning and communication, ensuring the implementation of long-term earthquake forecasts and assessing possible damage from them. It is necessary to take into account the costs for the construction of structures in accordance with the requirements of current building codes and rules for seismic resistance; carrying out special works to improve the seismic resistance (strengthening) of buildings; dismantling (dismantling) of insufficiently resistant structures; planning options for carrying out restoration work, taking into account the involvement of equipment, people, material and financial resources, creating the necessary grouping of the civil defense emergency forces to eliminate the consequences of natural disasters, accidents and catastrophes. The damage to agriculture can also be significant due to the destruction of crops and the destruction of fertile lands, the provision of evacuation of animals or the need to bring them feed, as well as the burial of dead animals. In areas of natural disasters, destruction, blockages, fires, blocking of riverbeds and overpasses, landscape changes, rupture of product pipelines, damage to bridge supports, power lines, and hydraulic structures occur. Using the material set out in the relevant chapters of this manual and the Workshop on the course, it is not difficult to predict these damages with a sufficient degree of accuracy and assess the material damage caused. Often, in addition to excavation, it is necessary to install drainage systems, provide emergency surface runoff, protect slopes (planting green spaces, strengthening) or construct hydraulic structures. During floods, there is flooding of the area or its flooding (water penetration into the basements due to the rise of groundwater). Flooding leads to the death of people and animals, significant damage, damage to buildings, communications, interruption of economic activity, destruction of fertile soils, loss of crops, contamination of the area (as a manifestation of a secondary damaging factor when leaving hazardous chemicals or fuel and lubricant storage facilities). The scale of the consequences of flooding depends on the height, area and duration of flooding, flow rate, season, population density, intensity of economic activity, and the presence of hydraulic structures. The amount of costs is significantly affected by specific measures to prepare the forces and means of the Civil Defense and Emergency Situations, specific measures taken, actions of rescuers and the population in emergency situations. In terms of specific material damage, floods are second only to earthquakes. Material damage is estimated by the number of units of destroyed, damaged or disabled objects. Specific material damage can be calculated in monetary terms per one hectare of the flooded area. In addition to direct damage (destruction; destruction of crops, feed, fuel, raw materials and products; death of people and animals; costs for the evacuation of the population and material assets), it is often necessary to assess indirect damage (costs for the purchase and delivery of food, clothing, medicines to disaster areas). , building materials, machinery, fodder; a reduction in output and a slowdown in the development of the national economy; a decrease in living standards; the inability to use a number of facilities; an increase in the cost of maintaining buildings). Direct and indirect damages are usually correlated as 7 : 3 (70% and 30%). During floods, due to subsidence of the soil, numerous breaks in the city's communication systems, main product pipelines, and intercity communication lines often occur. With regular flooding, the cost of repairs increases by at least 3 times, and after each flood, the cost of a wooden building drops by almost 10%. Calculations show that in cities with a population of up to 50 people with a predominance of 000-1-story buildings, the damage is up to 2 rubles / ha, while the number of destroyed houses can reach 20% of the total number of flooded ones. For each periodically flooded city, critical water levels are determined and used to prepare a flood map, which is also associated with significant costs. When the critical water level is reached, the flooding of this settlement begins. The flow rate is the amount of water flowing through the closing section of the river per second. Discharge is expressed in cubic meters per second, and its change is the root cause of fluctuations in the water level in the river Measuring the flow of water is an expensive undertaking, therefore, based on a series of measurements at a given section of the river, a graphical relationship between the flow rate and the water level (flow curve) is often established. A graph of changes in water flow over time is called a runoff hydrograph. The volume of floods (floods, floods) is measured in million cubic meters. m and is determined by multiplying the sum of the average daily flow rates for the flood by 0,0864 (the number of millions of seconds in a day). To determine flood damage, it is necessary to determine the maximum level and maximum flow of water during the flood. The maximum water level serves as a criterion for natural hydrological phenomena (floods, traffic jams, wind surges) leading to the flooding of settlements, MA, crops, and communications. The same flood parameter allows you to determine the area, layer and duration of flooding of a given area. It is also important to know the rate of rise of the water level. When designing hydraulic structures, not only the above parameters are taken into account, but also their repeatability. For the accuracy of the flood forecast, it is necessary to have data on the flow velocity (m/s) and take into account the factors that determine the values of the maximum level and maximum water flow during the spring flood. The water reserves in the snow cover before the beginning of the spring thaw are determined as the average snow reserves of the region, calculated taking into account the share of areas occupied by fields, forests, and ravine-gully network. The average long-term value of snow reserves for the winter for the center of Russia is 80...120 mm. Long-term average values of atmospheric precipitation during the period of snowmelt and flood for the center of the Russian Federation are 15...25 mm, and the maximum 50...70 mm. After the snow melts, these values should be increased by 1,5 ... 2,5 times. Autumn-winter soil moisture by the beginning of spring snowmelt is typical for a soil layer 0,5-1,0 m thick. The depth of soil freezing by the beginning of snowmelt is also determined on the basis of observations. The ice crust on the soil is formed during strong thaws. The water reserve in it is usually up to 10 mm in terms of the entire river basin. The intensity of snowmelt is determined using the coefficient of melting - a layer of melt water (mm) attributable to the GS of the average daily air temperature. This coefficient for the field is 5 mm/day, for the forest - 2 mm/day. The combination of floods from large tributaries of the rivers of the region under consideration. For large river basins, it is important to take into account the combination of flood peaks from individual tributaries. So, in the lower part of the Don, the flood usually has a two-peak shape: one peak is from the Seversky Donets basin, the second is from the upper reaches of the Don. The convergence of these peaks increases the height of the flood. Lakes, swampiness and foresting of the region. The average values of these factors are determined on the basis of measurements made by hydrometeorological stations. The total costs associated with floods depend on:
In the city, material damage from flooding is determined by the area, depth and duration of flooding, while in rural areas the season and duration of flooding are decisive. Water displaces air from the soil, there is a violation of gas exchange in the soil, and carbon dioxide enters the roots, which leads to poisoning of plants, a decrease or loss of yield. The maximum possible damage from floods for crops - in terms of the gross value of production per hectare for the center of Russia - is: for perennial grasses for hay - 1 rubles, for winter - 500 rubles, for root crops - 5 rubles. Especially large damage can be from forest fires. In order to successfully fight large forest fires, local authorities make special decisions on preparation for the fire season, work out a plan of main events and approve the composition of the emergency fire commission. The commission is chaired by the deputy head of civil defense of the district, and it includes representatives of the forestry departments (leskhoz or timber industry), agriculture, communications, utilities, internal affairs, civil defense services and local organizations - by decision of the head of the civil defense of the territory. At the beginning of the fire period, emergency fire commissions develop an action plan to prepare for the fire hazard period, which provides for the preparation of forecast maps for a possible fire situation, preparation for action of all fire fighting forces and means, including attached ones, conducting exercises and training with them, ensuring the constant readiness of equipment and inventory, organization of fire and watch guards and notification, provision of a road network from forest plots to water bodies (artificial or natural), the possibility of laying water conduits (temporary or permanent). The plan provides for explanatory work among the population. The direct responsibility for the protection of forests is borne by forestries, under which specialized fire and chemical stations are created. In case of mass fires, general-purpose civil defense emergency response units are involved in extinguishing. Leshozes should have observation towers, posts and patrols, organize patrolling of fire-dangerous areas of the forest. It is important to provide guards with reliable communication (telephone, radio, mobile means). Measures to localize the spread of forest fires usually begin with isolating regular sources of fire (for example, traffic routes, tourist gathering places), dividing the forest area into isolated blocks, separating the most valuable forest areas and improving fire fighting conditions (cleaning the forest from dead wood, rubbish, flammable materials). It is necessary to provide for the costs of:
To limit the spread of forest fires, the forest area is divided into isolated sections (blocks) by clearings, fire breaks. On the borders of the forest with agricultural land, along railways and general roads, fire protection belts are created. Sometimes they arrange special roads to the most fire-prone areas of the forest and reservoirs. Roads can become support lanes when extinguishing forest fires. A significant cost item may be the planning of fire safety actions, the determination of the order of forces and means for extinguishing fires, their equipment and training. The emergency fire commission, having received a signal about a forest fire, immediately begins to work. Its working body (headquarters or department of the Civil Defense and Emergency Situations of the territory) analyzes all the received data on the situation within a minimum time, prepares proposals for the deployment and use of forces to extinguish the fire, and ensures the implementation of decisions made by the chairman of the commission. At the first report of a major fire, all available forces and means are alerted, and, if necessary, the firefighting forces of neighboring settlements and rural areas.Authors: Grinin A.S., Novikov V.N.
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