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Table of contents

1. Content and organization of business planning at an enterprise (Theoretical foundations of business. The essence and importance of business planning in enterprise management. Organization of the business planning process in an enterprise. The role, practice and untapped opportunities of business planning in the Russian Federation)
2. Business plan of the organization (The concept, purpose, objectives and features of drawing up a business plan. The difference between a business plan and other planning documents)
3. Structure and content of business plan sections (General structure of a business plan. Title page, table of contents, confidentiality memorandum, summary of the business plan. History of the organization’s business (description of the industry). Characteristics of the organization’s business object. Analysis of the organization’s business environment. Marketing plan. Production plan. Organizational plan. Financial plan . Risk assessment and insurance)
4. General recommendations for drawing up a business plan (Brief methodology for drawing up a business plan. Recommendations for the use of computer technology in business planning)
5. Particular recommendations for the methodology for drawing up individual sections of a business plan (Recommendations for drawing up a summary of a business plan. History of the organization’s business (current situation and brief information about the enterprise). Description of the nature of the business. Market research and analysis (analysis of the organization’s business environment). Development of a marketing plan. Drawing up a production plan. Drawing up organizational plan. Drawing up a financial plan)

Lecture number 1. The content and organization of business planning in the enterprise

1. Theoretical foundations of business

Word "business" (from English business) means any occupation, business that generates income. A person doing business is a businessman (from the English businessman), that is, a businessman, merchant, entrepreneur. In the new economic reference books, business is the economic activity of an entity in a market economy, aimed at making a profit by creating and selling certain products (goods, works, services). Also, the concept of "business" can be considered as a synonym for the concept of "entrepreneurship". Entrepreneurial activity, entrepreneurship is an initiative independent activity of citizens and their associations, aimed at making a profit, carried out by citizens at their own risk and under property liability within the limits determined by the organizational and legal form of the enterprise.

In this way, business is the income-generating activity of citizens who own property. Besides, business - this is also a set of relations between all its participants, forming a team of like-minded people in order to generate income, profit, development of a company, enterprise, organization. The following groups of people act as business participants:

1) actually Entrepreneurs, i.e. persons carrying out initiative activities at their own risk, under their economic and legal responsibility, as well as collectives of entrepreneurs. The business interest of business participants of the first group - income generation - is realized through the production and sale of products. In the course of their activities, they enter into business relationships, as well as relationships with other business participants, eventually forming the sphere of entrepreneurial business. The latter includes three components: production, commerce (trade) and commercial mediation.

Business cannot be reduced to commerce (trade) and commercial mediation. Business is, first of all, production, which is the basis of any economy;

2) individual and collective consumers of productsoffered by entrepreneurs, as well as groups of consumers forming their own unions, associations, etc.

The business interest of the participants in the business of this group is the acquisition of goods and services. It is implemented through establishing contacts with manufacturers and sellers of products on the basis of mutual benefit. If for entrepreneurs the benefit is income, then for consumers it is a product or service that satisfies their needs. Realizing their consumer interests, this group of business participants forms the sphere of consumer business;

3) workers engaged in labor activity hired, contracted or otherwise, as well as their trade unions. The business interest of business participants of the third group - deriving income - is realized through work in a firm, organization, enterprise. If for entrepreneurs the benefit in transactions is the final income of the company, then for employees it is the personal income received as a result of the work performed. Realizing their interests, this group of participants forms the sphere of labor business;

4) government bodies, institutions and organizationswhen they act as direct participants in transactions. We are talking about providing government orders to entrepreneurs, determining prices, the composition and volume of benefits for their implementation, etc. In such cases, government bodies are equal partners of other business participants. The business interest of the participants in this group is the implementation of national programs (scientific-technical, scientific-production, social, etc.) in order to meet the needs of both the state as a whole and all its citizens. The principle of mutual benefit in such transactions is as follows. Firms are encouraged by the state to participate in these programs, and the state gets the opportunity to implement them in practice, ultimately forming the sphere of state business.

Business as a system is a phenomenon endowed with four properties - expediency, integrity, inconsistency and activity.

Expediency means that a business gives any element within it a rational focus on the beginning that unites these elements - generating income, profit. The highest goals of business are usually derived from the requirements of the so-called law of free competition. Higher goals, in turn, are subdivided into more specific goals, acting as means of obtaining the first. Integrity means that business permeates all spheres, sectors, territories and elements of the economy to the extent necessary for the full realization of its highest goal - increasing profits. In other words, business should freely penetrate into those areas that are vital for it in the given conditions. Prohibitions and restrictions should be kept to a reasonable level. Business cannot be imagined without its environment and main elements, which include management, marketing, financial system, law, etc.

Controversy means that business must be made up of contradictions, as they are the source of all development. In business, one can observe many contradictions: between entrepreneurs and employees, consumers and producers, entrepreneurs and trade unions or public authorities. Under normal conditions, all these contradictions serve as sources of business development, strengthening and strengthening its integrity. However, in conflict situations that go beyond reasonable public control, events full of historical drama are possible and are known, not only not strengthening, but, on the contrary, significantly weakening the business system. These are socio-political upheavals, civil wars, etc. They sometimes lead to a complete loss of the fundamental foundations of business: private property, competition and the economic freedom of a citizen.

Activity means that business is a social phenomenon, closely related to social systems and people's activities. Each of the entrepreneurs must freely and on a legal basis choose their own business, without causing unlawful damage to other people, without preventing them from developing their business. Reasonable activity of business people is usually realized in the wealth of individuals and society, the size of the gross national product of the country, the republic, the standard of living of citizens, the attractiveness of a particular country for living in it.

Modern business is not just a system that has the necessary features of expediency, integrity, inconsistency and activity. Business is also an internally regulated or self-regulating system. Entrepreneurs are interested not only in free competition with each other, but also in harmonizing certain aspects of their market behavior. Modern highly developed production pays a high price for individual erroneous steps in business. The bankruptcy of even a medium-sized enterprise means hundreds of laid-off workers, the loss of millions of capital, failure to fulfill contractual partnership obligations, the shutdown of related industries, etc. If the chain of such adverse events closes into a single whole, then this can cause a crisis of destructive power, when economic losses exceed business benefits. The Western world learned this long ago, having experienced the strongest lesson in this respect, which was the economic crisis of 1929-1933. At that time, the shocks of the economy of Western countries were so great that unemployment and inflation called into question the very expediency and preservation of business as a system. This, together with other factors, eventually gave rise to a craving for National Socialism, a total center, central planning in the former USSR, as well as a critique of Western market values. At the same time, many Western scientists came to the conclusion that business should not be curtailed, but regulated, helping it to realize everything for which it is considered a socially valuable phenomenon.

State institutions (bodies, committees, parliamentary commissions) in developed countries act as arbitrators in the case of escalation of conflicts between entrepreneurs and workers. The rules of the game in business are aimed at counteracting the monopolization of the economy, unfair competition on the part of entrepreneurs, public sector enterprises, and employees. Opposition is given to those firms that try to impose their entrepreneurial interests on the other side, reducing the overall efficiency of business in the industry or the economy as a whole. In the same way, resistance is also exerted by the unemployed part of the population and trade unions, which demand through their socially organized actions (strikes, bundling, rallies, etc.) that firms and state bodies take decisions that sharply reduce the efficiency of the national economy.

In addition, business is a developing phenomenon, as it is associated with the direction of profit. And profit, as a rule, can be obtained where the demand for goods and services is not saturated and ultimately stimulates the development of new professional areas of production. As a result, the business is rejuvenated, pouring its capital to where profits are higher than in traditional areas.

At a certain stage of the country's economic development, one or another business factor becomes relevant. For the development of the country's economy, it becomes important to improve production based on new technologies, increase the efficiency of the sphere of sale of goods, greening production. According to the totality of currently priority factors of economic development, specialists are revising their approaches to business, developing its new concepts. Of course, they also absorb earlier ones that have proven their effectiveness. It expands the theory and practice of business. For example, in the US, UK and Germany, priority is now being given to such factors as the growth of free time, intra-company strategic planning.

Since the basis of business is private property, depending on its types, the main forms of business are also distinguished.

In the 1980s There has been a boom in entrepreneurship for many reasons, including:

1) the entry of the world economy into the next stage of scientific and technological revolution;

2) aggravation of competition;

3) raising the level of education of personnel.

A huge role in a number of countries, including Japan, was played by the removal of barriers to the inter-sectoral flow of capital, which were laid down in the principles of sectoral regulation.

In the 1980s the concept of intrapreneurship as a specific intra-company entrepreneurship appeared. Intrapreneurs are innovators who have achieved the realization of their innovative ideas and brought their company big profits. The main features of intrapreneurship are:

1) a high degree of innovation orientation;

2) release of competitive products;

3) application of advanced management principles;

4) encouragement of innovation.

The creation of a favorable business climate is largely facilitated by the business infrastructure: business unions and associations, consulting and information centers.

Thus, the formation of market relations in the country began in the absence of many elements and signs of the market. Among the factors contributing to the creation of a favorable business climate, usually include:

1) stability of the state and social policy aimed at supporting entrepreneurship;

2) a preferential tax regime that provides incentives for opening new businesses or growing existing ones;

3) measures facilitating the flow of financial resources into the business sector;

4) creation of innovation and implementation centers financed both by the state and private business;

5) organization of advisory centers on management, marketing, advertising, courses and schools for the training of entrepreneurs;

6) availability of an effective system for the protection of intellectual property, innovative ideas, know-how;

7) simplification of procedures for regulating economic activities by state bodies (reduction of reporting forms, simplification of the rules for registering companies);

8) improving the quality of the labor force (education, qualifications);

9) provision with information technology, means of communication;

10) dissemination of such socio-psychological guidelines as success, personal and group responsibility.

It is believed that the following factors have a negative impact on the development of entrepreneurial activity:

1) high tax rates;

2) insufficiently high level of subsidies and the amount of investments;

3) low rate of accumulation;

4) inflation;

5) excessive state regulation;

6) low level of education;

7) hostile attitude towards the private sector;

8) high costs of maintaining the state apparatus;

9) growth in the share of the service sector;

10) change in moral values;

11) the psychology of exclusivity.

2. The essence and importance of business planning in enterprise management

Business planning (business planning) - an independent type of planned activity, which is directly related to entrepreneurship.

Under market conditions, it is unrealistic to achieve sustainable business success if you do not plan its development effectively, do not constantly accumulate information about your own state and prospects, about the state of target markets, the position of competitors on them, etc.

It is necessary not only to accurately represent your needs for the future in material, labor, intellectual, financial resources, but also to provide sources for obtaining them, to be able to identify the efficiency of resource use in the process of the enterprise.

Previously, in the presence of state administration, planning was purely centralized, the only thing left for enterprises was the fulfillment of tasks and plans that came from above.

Today, most commercial firms do not have officially adopted plans, and there is no necessary planning mechanism: various kinds of norms, regulations, etc. Planning is replaced by various kinds of decisions of the owner on certain areas of economic activity, which, as a rule, are calculated for the next period of time and are not forward-looking. This is due to the rapid change in the market situation in the country and economic conditions, the small number of administrative staff in small enterprises, the authority of managers of large enterprises with solid experience in economic management, although practice often confuses such managers.

Quarterly and annual financial statements are submitted in accordance with the Order of the Ministry of Finance, statistical reporting - at the direction of the State Statistics Committee, etc. As for business planning, there are no specific requirements or guidelines for the development of business plans yet. About the mistakes made, miscalculations and losses of entrepreneurial activity becomes known only after the preparation of the quarterly balance sheet. However, detailed analytical reviews of the balance sheets are not prepared, so timely measures to correct the situation are not taken. Partly for this reason, the majority of enterprises found themselves in a difficult financial situation (or generally insolvent), including trade, public catering and other types of services, although in these industries the problem of non-payment should, it would seem, be the least of all worries.

So, making various kinds of current decisions, even the most timely ones, does not replace planning, which, in comparison with decision-making, is a managerial activity of a much higher order.

In this way, business planning - this is an objective assessment of the own entrepreneurial activity of an enterprise, a firm and, at the same time, a necessary tool for design and investment decisions in accordance with the needs of the market and the current economic situation.

In the general case, business planning provides for the solution of strategic and tactical tasks facing the enterprise.

Formal planning certainly requires effort, but it also provides considerable benefits:

1) makes managers think ahead;

2) provides the basis for making effective management decisions;

3) increases the ability to provide the company with the necessary information;

4) helps to reduce the risks of entrepreneurial activity;

5) leads to clear coordination of actions of all business participants;

6) allows you to anticipate the expected changes, prepare for a sudden change in the market situation.

3. Organization of the business planning process at the enterprise

For the successful organization of business planning in a commercial organization, it is necessary to have four prerequisites (components) that are closely related to each other and constitute the infrastructure of the business planning process of a commercial organization.

Firstly, a commercial organization must have an appropriate methodological and methodological base for the development, control and analysis of the implementation of a business plan, and employees of financial and economic services must be qualified enough to be able to apply this methodology in practice. The methodological and methodological basis for the preparation, control and execution of a business plan forms an analytical block (or component) of the financial planning process.

Secondly, in order to develop financial plans, you need internal information about the activities of the enterprise and external information.

The basis of the information block (component) of the business planning process are:

1) economic information (forecast of interest rates, forecast of inflation rates, etc.);

2) accounting information (accounting information (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow statement, appendices to the balance sheet) and management accounting);

3) reports of financial authorities, information of institutions of the banking system, information of commodity, currency exchanges and other financial information;

4) political information, etc.

In addition, the functioning of the business planning system is carried out within the framework of the current regulatory framework, which includes laws, decrees of the President of the Russian Federation, messages of the Government of the Russian Federation, orders and orders of sectoral ministries, statutory documents, instructions, etc.

Thirdly, the business planning process is always implemented through the appropriate organizational structure and management system that make up the organizational unit of the process. The concept of the organizational structure includes the number and functions of the services of the management apparatus, whose responsibilities include the development, control and analysis of the business plan of a commercial organization, a set of structural units that are responsible for the implementation of the business plan.

Fourthly, in the process of financial planning and control, large amounts of information are registered and processed. The software and hardware used in the process of financial planning and control constitute the software and hardware unit of the financial planning system.

Business planning is an ordered set of stages and actions related to situational analysis of the environment, setting business planning goals, implementing planning (development of a business plan), promoting a business plan to the intellectual property market, implementing a business plan, monitoring its execution.

The following main stages of the business planning process:

1) preparatory stage;

2) the stage of developing a business plan;

3) the stage of promoting the business plan to the intellectual property market;

4) the stage of implementation of the business plan.

The key moment of the preparatory stage of business planning is the formation of a promising business idea.

Business idea - this is the idea of ​​a new product or service, technical, organizational or economic solution, etc. Sources of new ideas can be:

1) consumer feedback;

2) products manufactured by competitors;

3) the opinion of employees of the marketing department;

4) federal government publications on patents;

5) ongoing research and development work.

Business plan presentation is a summary of the main provisions of the business plan in negotiations with investors and potential partners. The company and its products, the market - customers and competitors, marketing strategy, financial priorities, the team that will carry out this plan (key management personnel), the size of the loan or equity required and the purposes for which this money will be directed, size, conditions and the timing of the investment - this is a list of the main issues covered at the presentation of the business project.

To increase the effectiveness of the presentation, a copy of the business plan is sent to potential investors and partners in advance so that they can read it before the start of negotiations. During the presentation, it is necessary to use visual material (product samples, photographs, graphs, diagrams, etc.). The presentation should take the form of a dialogue, not a lecture. It is better if the presentation is conducted personally by the head of the enterprise with the involvement of specialists.

The presentation precedes the start of negotiations with potential investors and partners for the implementation of a business project. In the course of negotiations, the terms and conditions are negotiated and contractual relations are formalized. Based on the results of the negotiations, appropriate adjustments are made to the business plan. The start of negotiations with investors is preceded by the stage of auditing the business plan.

The procedure for auditing a business plan by external investors is carried out according to a certain scheme, which, as a rule, includes six stages:

1) assessment of the characteristics of the applicant company, analysis of the industry of its activity. First of all, it is established whether the industry where this project will be implemented is among the priorities for the investor. Next, the position of the applicant firm against the background of its industry is determined;

2) analysis of the terms of the investment agreement (the form of borrowing and repayment of the loan, collateral, guarantee of repayment of loan funds);

3) analysis of the last balance sheet (determining the degree of financial stability and liquidity, valuation of assets and liabilities, checking the adequacy of own working capital, calculating the level of coverage ratio). The ratio "borrowed capital - own capital" must be determined. In world practice, it is usually avoided to give funds to firms in which this ratio exceeded 4, and if the firm is small, then even with the value of this indicator equal to 3;

4) assessment of the management team of the applicant company;

5) identifying the features of the project;

6) general analysis of the business plan.

Only after completing the work on the first five stages and receiving a conclusion on the advisability of further consideration of the project, they proceed to the sixth stage - a general in-depth study of the business plan. The audit of the business plan ends with the adoption or rejection of a decision to invest it.

The stage of implementation of the business plan covers the period from the decision to invest to the initial stage of the practical implementation of the project, including commercial production.

Implementing a business plan means completing all the work tasks in and out of the firm that are necessary to move a business project from the business plan stage to the actual production stage.

Planning the implementation of a business project and budgeting include the following main tasks:

1) determining the type of work tasks in the firm and outside it;

2) determining the logical sequence of events in work tasks;

3) preparation of a schedule for the implementation of tasks;

4) determination of resources for solving problems;

5) preparation of the implementation budget and the flow of funds that will finance the business plan;

6) documentation of all data on the implementation of the business project.

Thus, the implementation plan contains a schedule that combines the various stages of the implementation of the business plan into a sequential scheme of actions:

1) financial planning;

2) organizational design;

3) acquisition and transfer of technologies;

4) preparation of application documents;

5) submission of proposals;

6) negotiations and conclusion of contracts;

7) acquisition of land;

8) construction work;

9) installation of equipment;

10) purchase of materials and raw materials;

11) pre-production marketing;

12) training and appointment;

13) launch and start of production;

14) maintenance and development of production.

The audit of the business plan ends with the adoption or rejection of a decision to invest it.

For the practical implementation of business planning as a process, it is important to observe the following principles:

1) flexibility, meaning constant adaptation to changes in the environment in which the organization operates;

2) continuity, providing for the rolling nature of planning;

3) communication, which is understood as coordination and integration of efforts (everything must be interconnected and interdependent);

4) interactivity, which implies the creative nature of planning and the repeated elaboration of already drawn up sections of the plan;

5) multivariance, providing for the choice of the best of the alternative possibilities for achieving the set goal;

6) participation, suggesting the importance of the planning process itself in terms of involving all possible participants in the future organization in it;

7) the adequacy of reflecting real problems and self-assessment in the planning process.

4. The role, practice and unused opportunities of business planning in the Russian Federation

Foreign practice of managing enterprises that have achieved significant success in business, among the many methods of management used, uses business planning. The leaders of these enterprises have mastered the main methodological approaches to business planning and effectively implement the system logic embedded in them in their daily management activities. With the help of business planning, they learned to identify the main development priorities, control and effectively manage resources, anticipate likely changes in the business, and resolve financing issues. Systematically conducted studies of the activities of foreign firms show that the reasons for the vast majority of company bankruptcies are miscalculations or lack of business planning.

However, the use of business planning to develop and justify management decisions in Russian enterprises is the exception rather than the rule. Many entrepreneurs do not yet have the opportunity, and some simply do not know how to engage in business planning for horizons at least within a year. Practice shows that most managers still do not own the methodology and philosophy of business planning and are skeptical about its usefulness. At the same time, the need for a radical change in management is long overdue. A significant part of industrial enterprises "lays down", while light and food industries revived mainly on the wave of increased market conditions. At the same time, the same inefficient management is applied in them. Possible unfavorable changes in the situation and economic conditions in the country, the underdevelopment of the Russian financial and credit markets will not allow the "frozen" management of even successful enterprises to maintain their potential.

Today's Russian market is developing intensively, it is becoming more and more difficult to get super profits, focusing on chance and improvisation. The management of Russian companies will have to learn to work in conditions of more stable, but low levels of income.

As already noted, business planning organizes and coordinates the management of the enterprise, ensures the development of an action program from start to finish. Regardless of what business processes are being implemented, business planning is a systematic methodology for achieving success for any type of business operation while maintaining acceptable levels of risk. We note three main reasons that cause the need to develop a business plan for the enterprise:

1) ensuring an objective assessment of the business, taking into account the medium and long-term goals of management;

2) bringing the management of the enterprise to success as a result of using the methodology of business planning and its monitoring;

3) creation of conditions at the enterprise, under which the ideas introduced by management in the most accessible and holistic form are communicated to others and the attraction of often necessary financial resources is ensured.

Preparing a useful business plan is a time-consuming process that requires certain material costs and time spent by many specialists of the enterprise, united by a single leadership and one idea. Therefore, many managers of Russian enterprises avoid developing business plans, preferring to conduct management through an intuitive response to emerging situations. It is often said that the preparation of a business plan does not make much sense in a rapidly changing environment, since the provisions laid down in it become obsolete before they begin to be implemented. The situation really often changes very quickly. At the same time, the effective strategy of firms, along with long-term and medium-term forecasts, involves preparing their management systems for prompt response to unexpected critical situations. The practice of management has developed a number of techniques and methods to overcome the consequences of unexpected changes. In order to successfully resist the environment, the complexity and speed of decision-making in the firm must match the complexity and speed of changes occurring in this environment. Thus, if management does not want to complicate management systems to a level that corresponds to environmental conditions, it must go along the line of simplifying the company's strategic position, leaving unstable areas of activity. Many business problems can be avoided by business planning because they can be brought to management's attention before they become critical. It is also important here that the business plan will assess not only the costs of organizing such events and the effects of the decisions made, but also the risks of possible losses.

Thus, the complexity of a business plan should be determined by the complexity of the business it describes. In addition to the facts inherent in a given enterprise, a business plan usually contains information, analytical conclusions and forecasts that reflect both objective facts characterizing the business and subjective ideas of the enterprise's management about the development of the situation. It's unavoidable. Having developed a business plan, the firm's management fixes a policy that includes a set of investment decisions and assumptions regarding the future activities of the company, the consequences of which can affect over a fairly long period of time. If such decisions are based only on information about the current state of the business, then miscalculations and, ultimately, economic losses will inevitably be made. Therefore, the value of a prospective analysis of the consequences of such decisions for the enterprise is extremely high.

Management activities deal with limited resources. The business planning process helps to think through and prioritize management efforts among the problems to be solved, rationally allocate the required resources and optimize the economic performance of the company. It is better to postpone an ill-conceived activity that requires significant resources than to face a failure situation due to a lack of resources in the implementation process. As a rule, the main resource is financial resources, the lack of which often leads to a revision of the company's strategy. This is where the financial section of business planning plays a key role. The use of model support in the development of solutions reduces the management of an enterprise to an essentially algorithmized process, similar to the management of a complex technical system.

Thus, the business plan, together with the model, becomes a tool for predicting the results of the enterprise and management. Participation in the process of implementing the business plan of management personnel of different levels helps them to determine their role in the business and improve the efficiency of operations and mutual coordination, and ultimately trains and develops the organizational skills of management. Management training in a market environment is essential for effective development.

In this regard, there is another argument in favor of developing a business plan for the enterprise. For management, the value of the process of preparing a business plan is no less important than the business plan itself. Instead of learning from costly real-life experiments, a business plan allows management to avoid a series of fatal mistakes at the cost of several hundred hours of concentrated analytical work. Only an understanding of this allows us to come to the effective use of business planning in the practice of enterprise management.

Lecture number 2. Business plan of the organization

1. The concept, purpose, objectives and features of drawing up a business plan

Business plan - a concise, accurate, accessible and understandable description of the proposed business, the most important tool when considering a large number of different situations, allowing you to choose the most promising solutions and determine the means to achieve them.

A business plan is a document that allows you to manage a business, so it can be presented as an integral element of strategic planning and as a guide for execution and control. It is important to consider the business plan as a planning process itself and as an internal management tool. The business plan is a kind of document that insures the success of the proposed business, at the same time, the business plan is a self-learning tool.

main goal The development of a business plan is the planning of the company's economic activities for the nearest and long-term periods in accordance with the needs of the market and the possibilities of obtaining the necessary resources. Along with the main, defining goal, the compilers of the business plan should reflect other goals:

1) social goals - overcoming the shortage of goods and services, improving the environmental situation, improving the psychological climate in the country, creating new spiritual and cultural values, developing scientific, technical and creative potential, expanding business contacts, international relations;

2) raising the status of an entrepreneur - the development and strengthening of the economic potential of an entrepreneur (including production potential, financial, technical and technological, scientific, educational, as well as spiritual). This serves as a condition and guarantee of the possibility of successful subsequent transactions, increasing the prestige of the entrepreneur, generated by his fame, good reputation, guarantees of high quality goods and services;

3) other, special goals and objectives - the development of contacts, foreign trips, entry into various kinds of associations, etc.

Or, for example:

1) to understand the degree of reality of achieving the intended results;

2) to prove to a certain circle of people the expediency of reorganizing the work of an existing company or creating a new one;

3) convince the company's employees of the possibility of achieving the qualitative or quantitative indicators outlined in the project, etc.

The main focus of the business plan is the concentration of financial resources to solve strategic problems, that is, it is designed to help the entrepreneur solve the following main tasks related to the functioning of the company:

1) determine specific areas of activity, promising markets and the place of the company in these markets;

2) estimate the costs required for the manufacture and sale of products, commensurate them with the prices at which the goods will be sold in order to determine the potential profitability of the project;

3) identify the compliance of the company's personnel and conditions for motivating their work with the requirements for achieving the goals;

4) analyze the material and financial situation of the company and determine whether the material and financial resources correspond to the achievement of the intended goals;

5) calculate the risks and foresee the difficulties that may interfere with the implementation of the business plan.

In modern practice, a business plan performs five functions.

First of which is related to the possibility of using it to develop a business strategy. This function is vital during the establishment of the enterprise, as well as in the development of new areas of activity.

The second function - planning. It allows you to assess the possibilities of developing a new direction of activity, to control the processes within the company.

The third function allows you to attract funds - loans, credits. In modern Russian conditions, without credit resources, it is almost impossible to carry out any significant project, but it is not easy to get a loan. The main reason is not so much the problem of high interest rates, but the increased non-performing loans. In this situation, banks take a whole range of measures to ensure the return of funds, among which the requirements of bank guarantees, real collateral and others should be noted, but the decisive factor in granting a loan is the presence of a well-developed business plan.

The fourth function allows you to attract potential partners to the implementation of the company's plans, who wish to invest their own capital or their technology in production. The solution to the issue of providing capital, resources or technology is possible only if there is a business plan that reflects the course of the company's development for a certain period of time.

The fifth function by involving all employees in the process of drawing up a business plan, it allows them to improve their awareness of upcoming actions, coordinate efforts, and create motivation to achieve goals.

The preparation and effective use of a business plan is of paramount importance. This plan can be developed by a manager, an executive, a firm, a group of firms, or a consulting organization. To determine the development strategy of a large company, a detailed business plan is drawn up. Often, already at the stage of its preparation, potential partners and investors are identified. As for the time aspect of business planning, most firms make plans for the year. They examine in detail the various activities of the company during this period and briefly characterize further development. Some firms make plans for up to 5 years, and only large companies that are firmly on their feet plan for a period of more than 5 years.

Along with intra-company functions, business planning is of great importance in determining the planning strategy at the macro level. The totality of long-term business plans of enterprises constitutes an information base, which is the basis for the development of a national planning policy within the framework of state regulation of the economy.

Thus, to the greatest extent, a business plan is used in assessing the market situation both outside the company and inside it when looking for investors. It can help large entrepreneurs expand their business by buying shares in another firm or organizing a new production structure, and also serves as the basis for the formation of a nationwide planning strategy.

In a market economy, there are many versions of business plans in terms of form, content, structure, etc. The greatest differences are observed within the modifications of business plans depending on the purpose: by business lines (products, works, services, technical solutions), by enterprise in general (new or existing).

There are two main approaches to developing a business plan. The first is that the initiators of the project themselves develop a business plan, and receive methodological recommendations from specialists, in particular from potential investors. According to foreign practice, this approach is more preferable. In addition to the authors of the concepts laid down in the business plan, financiers who know the features of the credit market, the availability of free capital, and the risk of this business take an active part in its creation. In the second approach, the initiators of the business plan do not develop it themselves, but act as customers. The developers of the business plan are firms specializing in the field of marketing activities, groups of authors, individual authors. If necessary, consulting firms and experts are involved.

In foreign practice, it is accepted that the development of business plans is carried out with the obligatory participation of the head of the enterprise. Many foreign banks and investment funds refuse to consider applications for funds if this condition is not met.

In any case, regardless of the methods of drawing up a business plan, in the process of its development, the interests and conditions of the interested parties are subject to mutual consideration and coordination:

1) the customer of the business plan, who is an independent investor or uses borrowed capital, whose interest is the implementation of the project and the receipt of income;

2) an investor whose interest is the return of invested funds and the receipt of dividends;

3) consumers using products, whose interest is the satisfaction of needs for goods;

4) authorities that determine the needs and priorities of business development, the main purpose of which is to meet public needs.

The business plan assesses the prospective situation both within the firm and outside it. It is especially necessary for management to navigate in the conditions of joint-stock ownership, since it is with the help of a business plan that company leaders decide on the accumulation of profits and the distribution of part of it in the form of dividends among shareholders. This plan is used to justify measures to improve and develop the organizational and production structure of the company, in particular, to justify the level of centralization of management and responsibility of employees. It should be noted that this plan, as a rule, actively helps to coordinate the activities of partner firms, organize joint planning for the development of groups of firms associated with cooperation and the manufacture of identical or complementary products. In this case, partner firms provide joint financing.

There are certain features in the development of business plans for various organizations, such as for single-point and multi-point organizations. A single-point organization is understood as an organization (legal entity) consisting of one enterprise. Accordingly, an organization consisting of two or more enterprises will be multipoint. When planning the activities of such an organization, plans are first developed for each enterprise, and then these plans are reduced to one business plan. If the business starts for the first time, then only calculated indicators are included in the plan. If the business already exists, then the plan includes reporting data for the previous year, with which the indicators of the planned year are compared. A business plan for organizations with a large investment project requiring external financing is the most complex type of business plan. The first place here is occupied by indicators characterizing the investment project. Then the usual sections of the business plan, linked to the investment project, are outlined.

A feature of diversified organizations is the directed implementation of several types of activities. This should be reflected in the business plans of such organizations. Most often, in diversified organizations, certain types of activities are carried out in special divisions - branches (business units). In such cases, the organization acts as a multi-point, and the business plan is drawn up accordingly.

A business plan for non-production organizations is different in that instead of a detailed production plan, it briefly outlines the planned list of services (works) that will be provided. In the first place here is the coverage of the conditions for the provision of services (performance of work), the availability of licenses, permits, certificates, and ensuring the rights of consumers. Instead of a production plan, a business plan for a non-manufacturing organization develops an operational plan that forecasts the funds, facilities and resources that will be needed to run the business in the coming period, as well as the need for materials, labor, communications, etc. The remaining sections plans are developed similarly to the plans of production organizations.

2. The difference between a business plan and other planning documents

The business plan, like no other plans of the company, has an external focus, turns into a kind of commodity, the sale of which should bring the maximum profit. Therefore, unlike the traditional plan for the economic and social development of an enterprise, a business plan takes into account not only the internal goals of an entrepreneurial organization, but also the external goals of persons who can be useful to a new business. In addition, the business plan focuses on the marketing and financial and economic aspects of the business, while scientific, technical, technological and social aspects are presented in less detail.

Closer to the business plan is such a familiar document, previously known to Russian entrepreneurs, as a feasibility study (feasibility study). The main difference between a feasibility study and a business plan is that a feasibility study is a specific planning document for the creation and development of industrial facilities. Therefore, special emphasis in the structure of the feasibility study is placed on the production and technical aspects of the project, and the commercial, market problems of the future business remain almost undisclosed. In addition, the difference between a business plan and a feasibility study is its strategic focus. Therefore, we can talk about a much narrower, specific nature of the feasibility study compared to the business plan. The business plan is gradually replacing the feasibility study from the sphere of entrepreneurial activity.

A business plan is one of the key elements of strategic planning. Like the strategic plan of the organization, it covers a fairly long period, usually 3-5 years, sometimes more. However, there are a number of differences between a business plan and a strategic plan:

1) unlike the strategic plan, the business plan does not include the entire set of general goals of the company, but only one of them - the one that is associated with the creation and development of a certain new business. An organization's business plan is focused only on development, while a strategic plan may include other types of organization strategies;

2) strategic plans are usually plans with a growing time horizon. The business plan has a clearly defined time frame. Thus, in its form, a business plan, unlike a strategic plan, gravitates towards a project with its specific elaboration and a certain self-sufficiency;

3) in the business plan, the functional components (plans for production, marketing, etc.) are much more significant than in the strategic plan, they are full-fledged, balanced parts of the structure of the business plan.

In a market economy, the functions of a feasibility study are increasingly performed by investment projects that are closest to the business plan in terms of the structure and nature of the presentation of the material. The concept of an investment project can be used in two cases: as an investment activity (implementation of a system of investment measures), as a system of organizational, legal, analytical, engineering, economic, settlement and financial documents necessary to justify and carry out the relevant work on the implementation of the project.

It is expedient to consider the investment project in the second sense. An organization's business plan sometimes acts in relation to an investment project as a document that represents plans for the development and implementation of the relevant part of the investment project.

For short-term, small-scale or local business projects that do not require significant costs and are short in terms of implementation, a business plan can replace an investment project. It combines all the stages and work performed in the pre-investment phase of business planning. There may also be an organization's business plan that includes the planned results of the investment project, for example, if the investment project is being implemented at an existing enterprise (production expansion, modernization, reconstruction). In this case, the investment project can be included in the business plan of the enterprise, which regulates the procedure for using the free funds of the enterprise and borrowed financial resources within the framework of the investment project.

Thus, an investment project and a business plan can be close in structure. The structure of a business plan is similar to an investment project, especially in the part where the justification of the investment plan is carried out.

Lecture number 3. The structure and content of sections of the business plan

1. General structure of the business plan

Business plan structure:

1) title page;

2) abstract;

3) confidentiality memorandum;

4) table of contents;

Then its main sections.

1) summary;

2) business history of the organization (description of the industry);

3) characteristics of the organization's business object;

4) analysis of the business environment of the organization;

5) marketing plan;

6) production plan;

7) organizational plan;

8) financial plan;

9) risk assessment and insurance;

10) applications.

Immediately make a reservation that this structure of the business plan is only advisory in nature and does not claim to be exemplary. The list of sections and their content in each case may be supplemented or refined depending on the conditions in which the company operates.

Let us now turn to a detailed examination of the structure of the business plan and the content of its sections.

2. Title page, table of contents, confidentiality memorandum, business plan summary

Business plan starts with title page, which is usually indicated by:

1) name of the project;

2) the place of preparation of the plan;

3) the authors of the project, the name and address of the enterprise, telephone numbers;

4) names and addresses of founders;

5) purpose of the business plan and its users.

The title page usually contains confidentiality memorandum. It is drawn up in order to warn all persons about the non-disclosure of the information contained in the plan and its use solely in the interests of the company that submitted the project.

Also, the title page may contain a requirement to return the business plan to the author if it does not cause interest to invest in its implementation.

After the title page follows table of contents - wording of the sections of the plan indicating the pages and highlighting the most important points in accordance with the characteristics of a particular project.

The business plan may contain annotation, which provides a brief description of the purpose and main provisions of the business plan (0,5 - 2 pages). The annotation can be formatted in the following order.

1. Enterprise.

2. Address.

3. Phone, fax.

4. Head of the enterprise.

5. The essence of the proposed project and the place of implementation.

6. The result of the project implementation.

7. Necessary financial resources.

8. Payback period of the project.

9. Expected average annual profit.

10. Proposed form and conditions of the investor's participation.

11. Possible guarantees for the return of investments.

В administered the task of compiling a business plan and the circle of persons to whom it is addressed are indicated.

Summary (business concept) - a summary of the main provisions of the proposed plan, i.e. information about the intended business and the goals that the enterprise or entrepreneur sets for himself when starting his own business or developing an existing one.

The concept is drawn up after writing all sections of the business plan, as it contains the most basic of all its sections.

The summary indicates business opportunities, their attractiveness, importance for the enterprise and the region, necessary financial resources (own or borrowed), possible repayment period of borrowed funds, expected profit and its distribution, investment conditions. The summary should contain the main purpose of the proposed business and the purpose of the business plan being developed.

In addition to highlighting the main goal (goals) of the business plan, it is indicated for whom it is intended: for a potential investor or lender, possible business partners or shareholders, co-founders, the management of the enterprise or the entrepreneur himself (as a means of self-organization), state or municipal authorities ( to get support).

Thus, the summary contains the following data:

1) ideas, goals and essence of the project;

2) features of the offered goods (services, works) and their advantages in comparison with similar products of competitors;

3) strategy and tactics for achieving the set goals;

4) qualification of personnel and especially leading managers;

5) demand forecast, sales volumes of goods (services, works) and the amount of revenue in the coming period (month, quarter, year, etc.);

6) the planned cost of production and the need for financing;

7) expected net profit, level of profitability and payback period;

8) main success factors (description of methods of action and activities).

3. Business history of the organization (industry description)

This section contains basic information about the company and the scope of its activities. It reflects the main events that influenced the emergence of the ideas of the proposed business, as well as the main problems facing the organization at the present time. The actual position of the enterprise in the market is assessed, the directions of its development for the future are indicated. A long-standing enterprise gives a brief history of its economic activity. Specifies the type of proposed business. The types of activities that the enterprise intends to engage in or is already engaged in are represented.

The section describes the positive and negative aspects of the location of the enterprise. The main factors influencing or capable (under certain conditions) of influencing the activity of the enterprise are considered. This section also contains a general description of the industry.

The section ends with the formulation of the mission and goals of the enterprise and the definition of a business strategy.

4. Characteristics of the organization's business object

In the section of the business plan "Characteristics of the organization's business object" ("Characteristics of services and products"), a description of the enterprise's products from the consumer's point of view is presented. For this purpose, the following information is provided:

1) needs satisfied by the product;

2) quality indicators;

3) economic indicators;

4) external design;

5) comparison with other similar products;

6) patent protection;

7) indicators of export and its possibilities;

8) the main directions of product improvement;

9) possible key success factors.

The main purpose of the goods is to satisfy the needs of the client of the company. The business plan reflects the scope, the list of functional features, factors of product attractiveness. The factors of product attractiveness include value, possibility of purchase, price, quality, environmental friendliness, image, brand, shape, packaging, service life, etc.

Quality indicators are associated with the properties of the product - durability, reliability, ease and safety of operation and repair, etc. Some quality indicators can be quantified, the relevant data are given in the business plan. The presence of certificates of industrial products is indicated.

The difference between a new or existing product and a competitor's product is formed. The patent rights of the enterprise, patents for utility models, trademarks are described. The presence of licenses, as well as know-how, is indicated. Specifies the possibility of exporting products. If the products are supplied to the foreign market, then the main indicators characterizing the export (country, sales volume, foreign exchange earnings) are given.

For a new product, the business plan indicates whether this product meets the novelty requirement. This term refers to the following products:

1) a product that has no analogues on the market;

2) a product that has a significant qualitative improvement in comparison with analogue products;

3) a product that was already on the market, after which it was improved so that its properties changed fundamentally;

4) a product of market novelty, i.e. new only for a given market;

5) an old product that has found a new scope for itself.

The role of this section of the business plan is to present to the potential investor what new unique properties the product has, to prove that it is able to arouse the interest of buyers.

5. Analysis of the business environment of the organization

This section, as a rule, is devoted to research and analysis of the market, competition on it, etc. First of all, market research is aimed at identifying today's consumers of products and services and identifying potential ones. The priorities that guide the consumer when buying are determined - quality, price, time and accuracy of delivery, reliability of supplies, after-sales service, etc.

As part of market research, market segmentation is carried out, the size and capacity of markets for the company's products are determined. Market segmentation refers to the allocation of individual parts (segments) of the market that differ from each other in the characteristics of demand for goods (services), i.e., the breakdown of consumers by motivation and other characteristics.

Market size - the territory in which the sale of goods (services) of the enterprise takes place.

Market volume - the volume of goods (services) sold on the market during a certain period of time. The market capacity during planning is calculated in monetary and natural terms. Knowing the capacity of the market and the trend of its change allows us to assess the prospects of the market in the planning period. For example, a market seems unpromising, the capacity of which is insignificant compared to the production capacity of the enterprise. In this case, the income from sales on it may not compensate for the costs of introducing it to the market and the costs of manufacturing products. At the same time, the large capacity of the market may not always determine the planned sales volume. In this case, one has to take into account the severity of competition, the degree of consumer satisfaction with competitors' products and other factors that determine the possibility of market development.

Methods for calculating market capacity for different products vary. When determining the capacity of the consumer goods market, the factors that form consumer demand are analyzed. This may include the following factors:

1) the number and sex and age structure of the population in the region;

2) the level of income and the structure of consumer spending of the population;

3) policy in the field of remuneration.

Market volume is a dynamic indicator that develops under the influence of many factors. It is based on the relationship between supply and demand for the planned product. A generalizing indicator that characterizes supply and demand is commonly called market conditions. It is under the influence of conjuncture that the market capacity develops in a given period. Knowledge of the commodity market situation allows not only to determine its state, but also to predict the nature of further development, which is a necessary condition for forecasting the possible volume of sales during planning.

The program for assessing the current market situation depends on the characteristics of the product, the nature of the enterprise, the scale of production of a particular product, and a number of other factors.

An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves the use of various, complementary sources of information, the use of a combination of different methods of analysis and forecasting.

The following methods are most often used to collect and analyze information:

1) observation;

2) survey;

3) experiment;

4) modeling.

An effective method is observation based on the systematic collection of information on the state of commodity markets in combination with a retrospective analysis and forecast of the following indicators:

1) market capacity;

2) the number of suppliers of the same type of products;

3) sales volumes in physical and value terms;

4) development of sales of certain groups of goods;

5) sales speed;

6) stocks of products in distribution channels, etc.

In the practice of conjuncture analysis, observation provides more objective and reliable estimates than other methods of collecting information, since it provides a study of the behavior of the object of study in a real situation and a high representativeness of the results.

A survey is an oral or written appeal of a specialist conducting an analysis to employees of an enterprise, consumers or clients with questions, the content of which is the subject of research. With the help of a survey, it is possible to identify a system of preferences when choosing goods by consumers, the reason for returning a product or refusing to purchase. It can be conducted in the form of a questionnaire or interview.

An experiment is a study of the influence of one factor on another in a real setting. It provides, when analyzing the market, the possibility of separate observation of the influence of various factors, realism of conditions and control over extraneous factors. An experiment can identify causal relationships when one or more factors change under controlled conditions, such as an increase in sales with a decrease in price.

Experiments can be carried out not only on real objects, but also on artificial models. When analyzing the market, economic and mathematical modeling is most often used, which allows you to create such analogues of the objects under study, which reflect all their most important properties and omit secondary, insignificant properties from the point of view of the experiment.

In the process of preparing this section of the business plan, answers are given to questions about who, why, how much and when will be ready to buy products tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and in general over the next 2, 3 or more years. This section lists all available product orders. Among other things, here:

1) it analyzes how quickly products (services) will establish themselves on the market, justify the possibility of its further expansion;

2) the main factors influencing the expansion of the market are assessed (for example, trends in the development of the industry, region, socio-economic regional and federal policies, the creation of competition, etc.);

3) the main competitors are monitored and evaluated. The strengths and weaknesses of the competitor and the compiler of the business plan, the competitiveness of the goods and services produced are singled out and analyzed;

4) based on the assessment of the advantages of the goods and services produced, the possible volume of sales in physical and monetary terms is determined.

6. Marketing plan

Marketing is is a system for organizing the activities of a company in the development, production and marketing of goods and the provision of services based on a comprehensive study of the market and real customer requests in order to obtain high profits.

The main thing in marketing is a dual and complementary approach. On the one hand, it is that all the activities of the company, including the formation of its production programs, scientific and technical research, capital investments, financial resources and labor, as well as sales, maintenance programs and others, must be based on deep and reliable knowledge of the consumer demand and its changes. It is necessary to identify unsatisfied customer requests in order to focus production on their provision. On the other hand, it is important to actively influence the market and existing demand, the formation of needs and consumer preferences.

The main principle of marketing is the orientation of the final results of production to the requirements and wishes of consumers.

To solve a complex set of problems of creating a product and its movement to the consumer, marketing must perform the following functions: analytical, production and marketing.

Analytic function includes studying:

1) consumers;

2) competitors;

3) goods;

4) prices;

5) commodity circulation and sales;

6) sales promotion and advertising systems;

7) the internal environment of the enterprise.

As part of production function:

1) organization of production of new goods, development of more advanced technologies;

2) provision of material and technical supply;

3) quality management and competitiveness of finished products.

В sales function (sales function) entering:

1) organization of the distribution system;

2) service organization;

3) organization of a system for generating demand and stimulating sales;

4) conducting a targeted commodity policy;

5) conducting a pricing policy.

Of great importance in marketing is command and control functionwhich means:

1) organization of strategic and operational planning at the enterprise;

2) information support for team management;

3) organization of the communication system at the enterprise;

4) organization of marketing control (feedback, situational analysis).

The analytical function is a system of marketing research that solves the following tasks: the systematic collection, registration and analysis of data on problems related to marketing. Marketing research is concerned with making decisions on all aspects of marketing activities.

These studies and decisions made on their basis are reflected in the relevant section of the business plan - "Marketing Plan". This section explains the main elements of the plan in terms of products, markets, development of various industries. This section contains information about:

1) what marketing strategy is adopted by the company;

2) how the goods will be sold - through their own company stores or through wholesale trade organizations;

3) how prices for goods will be determined and what level of profitability on invested funds is expected to be realized;

4) how it is supposed to achieve sales growth - by expanding the sales area or by searching for new forms of attracting buyers;

5) how the service will be organized and how much money will be needed for this;

6) how it is supposed to achieve a good reputation of the goods and the firm itself in the eyes of the public.

Thus, this section includes items such as:

1) goals and marketing strategies;

2) pricing;

3) a scheme for the distribution of goods;

4) sales promotion methods;

5) organization of after-sales customer service;

6) advertising;

7) formation of public opinion about the company and products;

8) marketing budget;

9) controlling marketing.

7. Production plan

This section of the business plan is prepared only by the firm that is or will be engaged in production. For non-manufacturing firms, the need for long-term assets, working capital, and cost projections are defined in the "Financial Plan" section.

Depending on the type of business, the production plan provides a brief description of the features of the technological process for manufacturing products or providing services. The production plan is formed on the basis of the sales plan for manufactured products and the projected production capacities of the enterprise.

The developers of the business plan in this section must show that the enterprise can actually produce the required quantity of products at the right time and with the required quality.

  Structure this section might look like this:

1) production technology;

2) industrial cooperation;

3) control of the production process;

4) environmental protection system;

5) production program;

6) production capacities and their development;

7) the need for long-term assets;

8) the need for working capital;

9) cost forecast.

8. Organizational plan

This section of the business plan is devoted to the company's management system and its personnel policy. The section structure might look like this:

1) organizational structure;

2) key management personnel;

3) professional advisors and services;

4) personnel;

5) personnel policy of the company;

6) calendar plan;

7) social development plan;

8) legal support of the company's activities.

The organizational structure is a way and form of bringing together employees to achieve the production and management goals set for the enterprise. It is documented in the graphic diagrams of the structure, staffing tables, regulations on the divisions of the enterprise management apparatus, job descriptions of individual performers. The organizational structure is characterized by the number of links, hierarchy, the nature of the distribution of powers and responsibilities vertically and horizontally in the structure of the management system.

The organizational structures used in industry depend on many factors - the size of the enterprise, the volume of funds, the number of employees, the principle of operation, the structure of the market, etc.

The business plan provides information on:

1) on the production and technological structure of the enterprise;

2) on the functions of key units;

3) on the composition of subsidiaries and branches, their organizational relationships with the parent company;

4) on the organizational structure of management;

5) on the organization of coordination of interaction between services and departments of the company;

6) on the automation of the control system.

An assessment of the compliance of the organizational structure with the goals and strategies of the enterprise is given.

9. Financial plan

This section of the business plan considers the issues of financial support for the company's activities and the most efficient use of funds (own and borrowed) based on an assessment of current financial information and a forecast of the volume of sales of goods on the markets in subsequent periods, i.e. here a reliable system of data is presented that reflects expected financial results of the firm.

The forecast of financial results is designed to answer the main questions that concern the manager. It is from this section that the manager learns about the profit that he can count on, and the lender - about the ability of a potential borrower to service the debt.

This section presents:

1) profit and loss statement;

2) balance of cash expenditures and receipts;

3) forecast balance of assets and liabilities (for the enterprise);

4) break-even analysis;

5) financing strategy.

In addition, based on the data presented, for analytical purposes, additional calculations are made of indicators of the financial condition of the enterprise (such as liquidity, solvency, profitability, use of assets, use of equity capital, etc.), indicators of return on investment, etc.

10. Risk assessment and insurance

The activities of business entities are constantly associated with risk.

There are different types of risk depending on the object or action, the riskiness of which is assessed: political, production, property, financial, currency, etc. Let's give a brief description of the most significant risks for the purposes of business planning:

1) sovereign (country) risk. It is a risk associated with the financial situation of an entire state when the majority of its economic agents, including the government, refuse to fulfill their external debt obligations. Foreign investors who purchased short-term government bonds in Russia on the eve of the 1998 crisis faced a similar risk. The need to take into account country risk is especially relevant for international banks, funds and institutions providing loans to states and companies with government guarantees, although in fact this risk has to be taken into account by anyone to a foreign investor. The main causes of risk are usually cited as possible wars, disasters, global economic downturn, ineffectiveness of government policy in the field of macroeconomics, etc.;

2) political risk. Sometimes considered as a synonym for country risk, but more often used to characterize financial relations between economic agents and governments of countries with fundamentally different political systems or an unstable political situation, when the possibility of revolution, civil war, nationalization of private capital, etc. is not excluded;

3) production risk, to a greater extent determined by the industry characteristics of the business, i.e., the structure of assets in which the owners decided to invest their capital. The same capital can be used for completely different productions; it is obvious that the degree of risk of production activities in this case, and therefore the investment of capital in it, will be fundamentally different. Thus, the meaning of production risk is that at the time of creation of an enterprise, its owners, in fact, make a strategically important and at the same time very risky decision - to invest capital in this particular type of business. If the choice of business turns out to be wrong, the owners will suffer significant financial and time losses.

The reason for financial losses lies in the fact that in the event of a forced liquidation of an enterprise, its material and technical base and current assets in the vast majority of cases are sold at a loss, that is, at prices that do not compensate for the initial costs. Even if we are not talking about the complete liquidation of the material and technical base, its re-profiling and advertising campaigns to "promote" a new business require significant additional costs;

4) financial risk, due to the structure of sources of funds. In this case, we are not talking about the riskiness of choosing to invest capital in certain assets, but about the riskiness of the policy regarding the advisability of attracting certain sources of financing for the company’s activities. In the vast majority of cases, sources of financing are not free, and the amount of payment varies both by type of source and in relation to a specific source, considered over time and (or) burdened with additional conditions and circumstances. In addition, the obligations towards the capital provider assumed by the enterprise in the event of attracting one or another source of financing are different. In particular, if obligations to external investors are not fulfilled in accordance with the agreement, then bankruptcy proceedings may well be initiated against the enterprise with inevitable losses for the owners in this case. The essence of financial risk and its significance are thus determined by the structure of long-term sources of financing - the higher the share of borrowed capital, the higher the level of financial risk;

5) the risk of a decrease in the purchasing power of the monetary unit. This type of risk is inherent in business activity in general, and its meaning is that inflation can lead to a decrease in business activity, profits, profitability, etc.;

6) interest rate risk, which represents the risk of loss due to changes in interest rates. This type of risk has to be taken into account by both investors and business entities. Thus, bondholders may incur losses if the market tends to reduce the average interest rates on similar financial instruments. For enterprises, the risk of lower interest rates manifests itself in various aspects, and both progressive and regressive trends in the dynamics of interest rates can have a negative impact. Thus, if an enterprise issued a bond issue with a relatively high interest rate, and subsequently, for one reason or another, interest rates on long-term financial instruments began to steadily decline, then the issuer incurs obvious losses. On the other hand, an increase in interest rates, for example, on short-term loans, leads to additional financial costs associated with the need to maintain the required level of working capital. Thus, the risk of changes in interest rates should be taken into account in long-term and short-term aspects, with differentiation by types of assets, liabilities, instruments;

7) systematic or market risk. Represents a risk (characteristic of all securities) that cannot be eliminated through diversification;

8) specific or unsystematic risk. It has a narrow interpretation and is assigned to transactions with financial assets. Specific risk is a security that is not associated with changes in the market portfolio and therefore can be eliminated by combining this security with other securities in a well-diversified portfolio;

9) project risk directly related to business planning. Any enterprise is forced to engage in investment activities to one degree or another. The reasons for this are the need and expediency of diversifying economic activities, the desire to enter new markets for goods and services, the desire to participate in the development of a new niche (territorial or product) in the global market for goods and services, etc. As a rule, investment activities are implemented through the development and implementation of some investment project. Any more or less large-scale project requires appropriate financing and most often cannot do without debt financing, when an enterprise, in addition to its own sources (issue of shares, profits), attracts borrowed capital by issuing a bond issue or obtaining a long-term loan. Since borrowed capital is not free, the costs of servicing and repaying it, i.e., current interest payments and periodic payments to repay the principal amount of the debt, are of a regular nature and therefore must have a constant source. In general, this source is the profit of the enterprise. If an enterprise expects to pay off with external investors only at the expense of the profits generated by this particular project, then in this case a project risk arises, which can be interpreted as the probability that the profit on the project will not be sufficient for settlements with investors (in a broad sense, we are talking about external investors and the owners of the enterprise, since if the income generated by the project is only sufficient to service external long-term debt, then such a project is unlikely to suit the owners of the enterprise). From the perspective of suppliers of borrowed capital, project risk, considered as the risk of non-repayment of invested capital, in some situations can develop into country risk. This occurs if the government acts as a guarantor for the project;

10) currency risk. Any entity that owns a financial asset or liability denominated in a foreign currency faces currency risk, which is the probability of loss as a result of changes in the foreign exchange rate. Depending on the situation, the consequences of changes in exchange rates can be extremely significant. Thus, as a result of the August crisis in Russia, when for a short time the dollar/ruble exchange rate increased 4 times, many enterprises were unable to pay off their Western creditors and investors;

11) transaction risk, which represents operational risk, i.e. the risk of losses associated with a specific operation. Since there are practically no risk-free transactions in business, this risk is probably the most common and cannot be completely eliminated. For example, a supplier may disrupt the rhythm of delivery, a debtor may delay payment of an invoice, a financial asset acquired with the expectation of capitalized profitability may depreciate due to the financial difficulties of the issuer, etc.;

12) actuarial risk, covered by an insurance company in exchange for payment of a premium. Actuarial calculations are called calculations in insurance, understood as a system of measures to create a monetary (insurance) fund through contributions from its participants, from the funds of which damage caused by natural disasters and accidents is compensated, as well as other amounts are paid in connection with the occurrence of certain events. Insurance in many cases is a voluntary procedure, although some transactions, particularly in the banking sector, are subject to mandatory insurance. In the event that insurance takes place, the concept of actuarial risk arises as part of the total risk transferred to the insurance organization.

With the development of market relations, business is always carried out in conditions of uncertainty and variability of both the external and internal environment. This means that there is always ambiguity about the usefulness of the expected end result and, consequently, there is a danger of unforeseen losses and failures.

The section structure usually looks like this:

1) formation of a complete list of possible risks;

2) assessment of the probability of manifestation of risks;

3) ranking risks according to the probability of manifestation;

4) assessment of the expected amount of losses in their implementation;

5) establishment and justification of an acceptable level of risk (determination of the area of ​​acceptable risk);

6) highlighting the most significant risks;

7) risk insurance.

Lecture No. 4. General recommendations for writing a business plan

1. Brief methodology for writing a business plan

Before you start creating a business plan, you need to get the whole range of necessary information. In this regard, the following business planning stages.

1. Determining sources of necessary information. They can be textbooks on business planning, government agencies (including those dealing with small business issues), management consulting firms and other side organizations, industry publications, courses on writing business plans, audit firms, acquaintances, colleagues, friends.

2. Determining the goals of its development. Goals are determined by the list of problems that the business plan is designed to solve. It is very important to understand that the internal and external goals of the organization can only be achieved if a truly sound and high-quality plan is created.

Determining the internal and external problems of business planning, it is worth thinking about the possibility of their interpenetration. For example, external goals (attracting investors) can be better achieved if, say, commercial banks are invited to become not only creditors, but also full participants in an entrepreneurial project. First, it will draw additional attention to the project. Studies have shown that for Russian commercial banks, it is more attractive not to simply allocate loans for a business plan, but to combine a loan with direct participation in its implementation: joint activities, equity participation, profit distribution, operations, etc. If the data points will be highlighted in the business plan, this will make it easier to obtain the necessary financial resources. Secondly, specialists from commercial banks and other financial companies, as a rule, have the necessary skills in evaluating investment projects. In their investment departments, commercial banks, taking into account the lack of necessary experience and knowledge of Russian entrepreneurs, create special divisions whose experts help to understand the complex problems of assessing the future prospects of a business. Thus, entrepreneurs can count on serious assistance in solving the internal problems of a new business at the level of modern scientific methods using a complex economic and mathematical apparatus.

3. Defining your target readers: whether it will be only internal members of the organization (which is unlikely) or also external persons whom the organization would like to see as its investors, future shareholders, commercial banks, venture capitalists.

Venture or risk capitalists are commercial organizations that specialize in the financing of entrepreneurial projects at various stages of their implementation (both at the stage of formation and at the stages of expansion and modernization), as well as in the financing of individual risk units - types of businesses included in into a large business organization. Venture capitalists participate in the financing of a business through the IOU system, the purchase of shares and other securities of the firm in need of financing. The purpose of venture capital is to invest in risky ventures for high profits.

4. Establishing the general structure of the document being created.

5. Collection of information for the preparation of each of the intended sections of the business plan. At this stage, it is necessary to enlist the support of those people who have the necessary experience and knowledge to draw up a business plan. These can be internal participants - employees of the organization with experience and good knowledge of the internal environment. It is also desirable to involve external consultants, especially for their use in the field of financial forecasting and market research. In addition to financiers, accountants, marketers, general economists (including those specializing in macroeconomic problems), management consultants may be involved in the work on a business plan.

Before gathering information, it is helpful to create a questionnaire that includes substantive questions for each section of the business plan.

6. Writing a business plan. An important rule here: an entrepreneur must write a business plan on his own, even if it requires a lot of time and the entrepreneur does not have the skills for this type of work. The assistance of consultants to an entrepreneur ends at the previous stage, when internal and external consultants help collect the necessary information and carry out its initial processing. At the final stage, consultants can assist the entrepreneur.

If an entrepreneur delegates the writing of a business plan to someone else, then the reasons for this are:

1) incomplete and unsystematic knowledge by the entrepreneur of the strengths and weaknesses of his organization, the main directions of its activities, a possible future planned project;

2) the absence of a training period for planning activities, which will negatively affect the future actions of the organization (after all, planning is an integral component of management activities);

3) the inability of the entrepreneur to clearly and deeply demonstrate the benefits of his project to future investors. And no less important, an entrepreneur can lose investor confidence: an imperfect, not entirely successful, but self-made business plan can be corrected, but lost trust is much more difficult to restore.

The sixth step generally completes the business planning process, however, to improve the plan, it is useful to take one more step, the seventh step. It consists in the fact that the entrepreneur offers a ready-made business plan for reading to some authoritative but uninterested person who is able to evaluate his work on the basis of constructive criticism.

Making a business plan begins with the preparation of the title page. It should immediately provide information about where, when and by whom this document was compiled. The name of the project is also indicated here, which should briefly and clearly formulate the idea embodied in the business plan.

The second page of the plan contains a table of contents, which should reflect its structure. This is the nomenclature of sections or paragraphs. In any case, the content must be clearly digitized in Arabic numerals. Then comes the introduction, which indicates the task of compiling a business plan and the circle of people to whom it is addressed. It is also advisable to note why there was a need to create this project or investment idea.

The resume should not exceed a few pages. This section indicates all the main things that should be understood and appreciated by a potential investor, i.e. information that gives an idea about the firm and provides all the necessary data characterizing its commercial activities. In priority order, the directions of the company's activities are indicated, for each direction, target markets and responsible persons are determined. Planners should succinctly and clearly state the main objectives of the project, as well as its specific objectives.

Thus, the section should highlight the main goals of the company, its strategy, specific activities developed to achieve it.

It is advisable to present these data in the form of a table containing a description of the business practices that the company is going to use, and the corresponding measures aimed at solving specific problems within the framework of the chosen strategy.

It is also advisable to determine in the table the circle of persons responsible for the implementation of various activities. Indicating the exact implementation dates there is important both for the planner and for the potential investor. The definition of a time frame in the business plan shows that the plan is developed in detail and in good faith.

The products and services section describes all of the firm's products and services that are offered to customers on the market. The preparation of a section is preceded by significant preliminary work on the selection of a product or service that should become the basis of the firm's business. Within this section, it is necessary to describe in detail the offered goods and services, indicate their main advantages in the eyes of the consumer, as well as existing shortcomings and measures to overcome them. Of particular note is the difference between what is currently on the market and what the company is going to offer in the future, since market entry and sales growth directly depend on the unique properties of the product presented in the business plan.

The purpose of the market analysis and sales section is to provide the investor with sufficient factual material to convince him of the competitiveness of the project under consideration, as well as to help the entrepreneur determine who will buy his product and where his market niche is. This section is one of the most difficult and important, as it is based on market valuations, which have a direct impact on the financial and production plans of the company. In this section, the entrepreneur should cover the following questions:

1) the types of markets in which the firm operates;

2) the main market segments for each type of goods or services;

3) factors affecting demand in each of the market segments;

4) prospects for changing customer needs and the company's possible response to these changes;

5) the actual state and forecasts for the development of the capacity of the used market segments in the near future and in the longer term;

6) market reaction to new products.

In some business plans, an assessment of competition in the sales markets is allocated in a separate section. This section is devoted to the analysis of market conditions, the characteristics of competitors, their strategies and tactics. When evaluating the activities of competitors, it is necessary to answer the following questions:

1) how much the area of ​​activity of the company is subject to change;

2) whether the number of firms offering similar goods and services is large;

3) what part of the market is controlled by competing firms;

4) how are competing firms doing with revenue, new technology, advertising and after-sales service;

5) what is the subject of the most intense competition in this field of activity (price, quality, after-sales service, etc.).

The marketing section of the business plan highlights how to achieve sales targets and bring products to the consumer. The plan should include the firm's overall marketing strategy, pricing and sales scheme, and methods to stimulate sales growth. The organization of after-sales customer service, advertising of manufactured goods and the formation of public opinion about the goods and the company that produces them are also of great importance.

The "Production Plan" section is included in the business plan only by those entrepreneurs who are going to be engaged in the production of goods. The main task here is to convince potential partners that the company will be able to produce the required quantity of goods of the required quality at the right time.

Typically, a production plan includes the following structural elements:

1) characteristics of the production cycle;

2) analysis of the location of the enterprise in terms of factors such as proximity to sales markets, suppliers, the availability of qualified labor resources, transportation costs, the level of infrastructure development;

3) assessment of the necessary factors of production and the dynamics of their change;

4) assessment of suppliers of raw materials and materials in terms of their reliability, cooperation experience, etc.;

5) regulations relating to production, as well as affecting the nature and timing of the opening and operation of the enterprise;

6) production costs and the dynamics of their change.

The section on risk highlights the problems a firm may face during the implementation of a project and the main methods to protect against potential difficulties. This section contains the following components:

1) a list of possible risks indicating the likelihood of their occurrence and the expected damage from this;

2) organizational measures to prevent and neutralize risks;

3) risk insurance program.

The section of the business plan concerning the financial plan should be devoted to assessing the potential of the company and planning its financial activities in order to achieve the viability of the company and the effective use of available funds. This section contains the following planning and reporting documents:

1) operational plan;

2) plan of income and expenses;

3) cash flow plan;

4) balance sheet.

These documents are of a planning and reporting nature. Planning is carried out on the basis of a forecast of the future activities of the company within a certain period of time. The report is compiled for the past period of time. The data provided in these documents is used further to analyze the financial condition of the company.

The section on finance sets out a plan to start a new firm or expand an existing one. When compiling this part of the business plan, the entrepreneur must consider the following questions:

1) the funds necessary for the implementation of the proposed project;

2) source of investment;

3) payback periods and expected income from project implementation.

In addition to these sections of the business plan, it is also advisable to include an organizational plan containing a brief description of the organizational structure of the company, information about personnel, information about the legal support of the company.

At the end of the business plan, factual information is provided, namely the full name of the enterprise or firm, legal address, contact telephone numbers, telex, fax, as well as the names of organizations and telephone numbers by which the reader of the plan can obtain additional information if necessary.

Recommendations for drawing up a business plan:

1) the design of the business plan should correspond to the image of a successful company, it should be attractive, but discreet;

2) the degree of detail should correspond to the goals of the plan, but not include anything superfluous: a clear structure and its clarity, brevity. Foreign practice shows that the optimal volume of a business plan is 40 pages;

3) the business plan should not include secondary and background information. It is better to put it in applications. The scope of applications is not limited;

4) the presentation style should be simple and free of language and terminological barriers. The business plan should be understandable to a wide range of people, not just specialists;

5) the information of the business plan should be capacious, clear and at the same time concise (tables, graphs, etc.);

6) proposals and forecasts of the business plan must be substantiated and supported by references to sources of information;

7) the accuracy of financial calculations is a necessary condition;

8) the risks of the company should be discussed;

9) the business plan must be prepared taking into account the requirements and standards of organizations and individuals to whom this document is supposed to be presented.

2. Recommendations for the use of computer technology in business planning

In the process of business planning, a significant place is occupied by the calculations of time series of a fairly wide range of indicators.

The calculations are carried out taking into account the elements of forecasting, involving expert assessments of the future state of a particular financial and production-economic process, not only at the final moment of the project, but also in the form of a quarterly (monthly) description of the situation.

The most complete account of the dynamics of the project in the preparation and analysis of the business plan is possible with the use of specialized computer systems for economic and financial modeling, adapted to solve such problems. This is of particular importance for taking into account the inflation factor and bringing the costs at different times, as well as for analyzing the sensitivity of the project to changes in the external environment. The right choice and effective use of computer software products can significantly improve the quality of business plans.

Currently, there is a very wide range of specialized software products. The most frequently used application packages in Russia are COMFAR (Computer model for reporting) and PROPSPIN (Project profile screening and preappraisal information system), created by UNIDO - the United Nations Industrial Development Commission; the "Alt-Invest" package from the "Alt" company (St. Petersburg) and the "Project Expert" package from the "Pro-Invest Consulting" company. Systems such as "Microsoft project", "Timt line" and "Primavera" are intended only for the development of a work schedule and a network project, including the duration and costs of its stages, and are used mainly as project management systems.

The COMFAR application package exists in various versions, largely adapted to the economies of specific countries, and has been translated into Russian.

The "Alt-Invest" package is implemented as a spreadsheet calculator and has all the advantages and disadvantages of this approach.

The "Project Expert" package is somewhat different from the above products. Consistency in solving many problems, taking into account the specifics of national conditions, a powerful advertising campaign make it possible to make a weighty claim for the leadership of this software product in this area. The package is advertised as a means of preparing international business plans and, to a certain extent, meets the declared goal.

The COMFAR and Alt-Invest packages are based on the UNIDO methodology for the preparation of feasibility studies.

The data structure of the COMFAR package is represented by such main blocks as: general capital investments - construction, general capital investments - production, working capital requirements, sources of financing, cash flow tables, net income statements, project balance sheets.

Calculations can be made in any currency by choosing its ratio with the ruble. The package allows you to track separately foreign and domestic investments, makes it possible to calculate diversified production. It is possible to apply both the straight-line depreciation method and the accelerated one. When calculating production costs, the user sets the annual inflation rate. Thus, all changes in annual cash flows are tracked, taking into account the payment of taxes, payment of dividends and interest on loans. The "Alt-Invest" package has a similar structure. Both packages calculate cash flows and have a similar list of calculated financial indicators, such as net present value, return on equity, internal rate of return.

The COMFAR package is implemented in the form of three software blocks: data entry, calculations, and output of results. In addition to these blocks, the package contains two additional blocks: graphical display of information, economic analysis "costs - benefits".

The graphic block makes it possible, using business graphics tools, to build diagrams that allow you to make organizational and financial decisions.

The advantages of the COMFAR package in terms of the control function include closedness. It is impossible to interfere with the work of the package, which guarantees that the results obtained correspond to the original data in terms of the conscientiousness of their processing.

The main disadvantage of the COMFAR package is the impossibility by the means existing in the system to adequately describe the conditions for the implementation of the project for a country with a transitional economy.

This system does not have a flexible mechanism for setting the inflationary impact on costs and currency ratios; it does not provide for such realities inherent in the Russian economy as delays in payments.

It should also be noted that the tax block does not fully comply with Russian legislation: COMFAR allows you to directly take into account only those taxes that are taken and calculated from profit; the calculation of the system is focused only on a fixed (one-year) planning period (during the construction period, perhaps half a year); there are no sufficiently developed tools for describing the network diagram of the project, which leads to the need to additionally use Microsoft project, Nime Line and others; low level of service for the user.

The "Alt-Invest" package is implemented using Microsoft works or EXCEL spreadsheets and can work in the environment of other common spreadsheet processors (SuperCalc4, Lotus 1-2-3, QUATTRO Pro). This leaves an imprint on all further work with him. The advantage of the package is that all information is presented on the entire screen. By changing the value of the indicators, the user instantly receives a reaction to his actions.

"Alt-Invest" is implemented in Russian and English versions, provides for the possibility of settlements in two currencies. In "Alt-Invest" the user has direct access to the formulas by which the calculations are made. The disadvantages of such an organization include the following: the inconvenience of communicating with tables in search of the necessary indicators - the user must each time examine the entire spreadsheet or remember its coordinates; the complexity of changing formulas, which requires the user not only to have a deep understanding of their meaning, but also the ability to correctly program formulas in the language of this spreadsheet; the user must make considerable effort to correct the tables; the availability of free access to formulas makes it difficult to verify the reliability of the calculations; the package does not contain advanced tools for building a network diagram, and the processes of printing results or plotting require special training from the user.

The PROPSPIN package is an information system for the preliminary evaluation of projects. It was developed by the UNIDO office in Vienna for the preparation, research and analysis of industrial investment projects. Like COMFAR, PROPSPIN is licensed software.

PROSPIN is intended for:

1) formulating the positions of the investment project;

2) studies of the consequences of changes in the selected parameters;

3) preparation of possible scenarios based on various assumptions regarding the prospects of the project.

A distinctive feature of PROPSPIN is its integration.

The user simultaneously sees both the input data and the financial result on the screen. The resulting report is a variant of the financial plan of the project, taking into account the given restrictions. However, the package is not a tool for a complete financial analysis, but serves to quickly identify options suitable for further consideration. The tables generated by the system show the main physical and financial data in terms of indicators such as rate of return, payback period, break-even point. If weaknesses in the financial structure of the project are found through analysis, the user has the opportunity to change the values ​​of the input data until such a set of parameters is found that will make the project acceptable.

PROPSPIN consists of two parts: a data entry block and a report generator. The first one sets the initial investment, data on raw materials, the cost of labor, components, etc. Some parameters can be taken by default.

PROPSPIN is a standard package that allows you to conduct a preliminary financial analysis of investment growth. The system can be used in the preparation of a business plan only as an aid.

Due to its implementation in a spreadsheet environment, the package has all the advantages and disadvantages of this method.

The "Project Expert" package is an automated system for planning and analyzing the effectiveness of investment projects based on a cash flow simulation model.

The developer of the package, Pro-Invest Consulting, has been a participant in the market of software projects in the field of economics and finance for a long time. It started its activity in 1989 as an investment center at the Academy of Sciences of the USSR and today has more than 1500 users of "Project Expert" in Russia and abroad.

The success of the Russian software product is explained by the fact that it fully, primarily methodically, meets international standards.

The methods used in the system comply with the Guidelines for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects and selecting them for financing, approved by the State Construction Committee of Russia, the Ministry of Economy of Russia, the Ministry of Finance of Russia and the State Committee for Industry of Russia on March 31, 1994, and the calculation of indicators of investment efficiency and financial results is also carried out in accordance with the requirements UNIDO methodology.

Currently, the package is distributed in two versions: Project Expert for Windows 4.1 (Business plan guide), designed for planning and analyzing the effectiveness of investments; Project Expert for Windows (Biz planner 4.2) is a special version for small and medium businesses.

In addition to this package, an "Entrepreneur's Workbook for Business Plan Development" has been published. Thanks to this notebook, any entrepreneur, even without all the necessary information, can either independently or with the help of specialists prepare a business plan, since all tables are simultaneously input data for the "Project Expert" system.

As in other calculation systems, this package provides for combining input data by semantic blocks. The tax block is sufficiently detailed.

"Project Expert" has the means to conduct a detailed analysis of the project, taking into account the impact on it of general economic factors that characterize the socio-economic environment, inflation trends, the ratio of exchange rates, the dynamics of the scale and structure of production costs, including raw materials, materials and components, wages salaries of managers and production personnel, the cost of fixed assets, features of the order and timing of payments for sold products, the general investment climate, conditions for attracting capital, possible changes in the tax system. Factors that determine the market and production strategy of the project and affect the efficiency of capital use are also taken into account: export opportunities; terms of payment for the supply of raw materials, materials and components used in production; the required volumes of stocks of finished products in the warehouse, depending on fluctuations in market demand; stocks of raw materials, materials and components, depending on the constancy and reliability of supplies.

"Project Expert" calculates financial performance indicators of investments that meet international standards. The "Business plan guide" version also calculates indicators of financial condition (profitability, liquidity, solvency).

The package provides the presentation of the results of financial analysis in the form of tables, charts and graphs that can be printed. The user can make an integral assessment of the project according to many criteria. Evaluating the software implementation, we note that the package is made using a modern multi-window interface. An extended hint system, convenient presentation of information on the screen, the ability to communicate with information and ease of printing allow us to state that the package meets the requirements for software products of this class. At the same time, improvements in customer service and graphical implementation of financial variables are possible.

This system allows you to automatically analyze the sensitivity of an investment project by varying various parameters (sales volume, sales price of products (works, services), direct production costs, fixed costs, discount rates).

For better preparation of the business plan of the project, in addition to the main package, the user can purchase the package developed by Pro-Invest Consulting, which contains the modules "Project Risk" and "Project Questionnaire".

Being independent software products, the modules complement "Project Expert for Windows" to a system that provides full organizational and technological support for the investment process.

The "Project Risk" module provides tools that allow experts to interactively analyze the risk of a project, highlight the factors of greatest risk and comment on the causes of their occurrence. With the help of special tools of the module, the necessary list of risk factors is created, taking into account the specific conditions for the implementation of the project.

"Project Risk" contains three sections covering all periods of project implementation: preparatory period, production period, sales period. During the analysis, the expert determines the level of risk for all factors of the questionnaire. The program allows you to output analysis results and questionnaires to a printer or generate a file for printing in MS Winword.

"Project Questionnaire" allows you to make a qualitative examination of the investment project, calculate the integral indicator of the level of efficiency.

Pro-Invest Consulting is developing the Project Expert system in two directions: for small and medium-sized businesses (available to any enterprise), as well as in the form of a special version of an individual delivery for large corporations.

The main task of the second version of the system, implemented on the basis of version 5.0 "Project Expert" (project planning and management system), is to model and evaluate the actions of a diversified enterprise operating in several markets with a wide range of products. Under certain conditions, this system can also be used by regional authorities to solve multifunctional tasks of the socio-economic development of the region, city.

"Project Expert" occupies an intermediate position on the market between project management software ("Microsoft Project", "Time line", etc.) and powerful corporate planning and management systems (SAP, BAAN, etc.). The latter are usually installed on workstations and cost tens of thousands of dollars. Some of them (SAP) have already penetrated the Russian market and are spreading quite actively there.

In the practice of business planning, Internet resources and tools can also be widely used at all stages of preparing a business plan, such as:

1) formation of a business idea;

2) research of commodity markets;

3) research of firm structure of the market;

4) study of consumers;

5) formation of product policy, development of the concept of new products;

6) after-sales service;

7) formation of a flexible pricing strategy;

8) sale of goods via the Internet;

9) use of Internet payment systems;

10) advertising;

11) public relations;

12) improvement of internal and external communication systems;

13) advertisement of the business plan;

14) presentation of the business plan;

15) negotiating with partners and investors.

Recently, due to high market needs and constant updating of hardware and software, more advanced versions of existing software products and fundamentally new products have appeared.

Lecture number 5. Private recommendations for the methodology for compiling individual sections of the business plan

1. Recommendations for writing a summary of a business plan

The summary of the business plan defines in priority order all areas of the company's activities, target markets for each area and the place of the company in these markets. For each direction, goals are set that the company is striving for, strategies for achieving them, including a list of necessary measures. Responsible persons are identified for each strategy.

The same section contains information that gives an idea about the company, as well as all the necessary data characterizing its commercial activities.

This section begins with the formulation of the firm's mission, or its main strategic orientation.

Mission - this is the general goal of the company, reflecting the main aspects of its activities and determining what the company wants to devote itself to. The mission, in fact, is the business card of the company, showing its place and role in the economy of the region and the country.

The direction and areas of activity of the company follow from the mission.

The boundaries of the areas of activity can be manufactured goods, existing markets or market segments, technological capabilities of the company. When developing a company's program of activities, it is necessary to strive to ensure that it does not turn out to be too narrow, but it should not be made too broad. The boundaries of the program should be as close as possible to the capabilities of the firm.

The mission, formulated in the form of general qualitative provisions, is further specified in the form of a set of company-wide goals. At the same time, it is recommended to use not only traditional quantitative indicators (such as the market share of the company by country, product and segment, sales of goods and services in the markets in physical and monetary terms, the size of the company's profit, production costs for the manufacture and marketing of products, etc. .), but also qualitative indicators characterizing the development of new markets; development and marketing of new products, environmental protection in the countries where the company operates, employment in countries where the company trades or opens branches, etc.

When setting goals, you can use a system of rules known as "SMART", according to which the goals put forward must be specific, measurable (measurable), relevant, realistic, trackable (controllable).

General company goals, in turn, are divided into sub-goals that determine specific areas for increasing the company's profits, sales growth, cost reduction and increase in the selling price associated with the development of new, more competitive products.

The more clearly a firm sets out its goals in terms of quantity, place, and time, the more specific a strategy can be developed to achieve them.

Next, you need to consider company working conditions, As follows:

1) business cycles of the firm;

2) possible changes in market conditions;

3) availability of qualified labor force;

4) sources of material and financial resources;

5) interaction with state and public organizations, banks and other enterprises;

6) the main competitors of the firm.

After describing the prospects facing the company, it is necessary to characterize its current commercial activities, as well as provide the last names, first names, patronymics and phone numbers of the top management (general director, chief engineer, chief accountant, chief specialists).

Also, the entrepreneur needs to provide detailed information covering all aspects of the organization's business (technology, market, personnel, finance, organization, etc.). Thus, the main condition for compiling a good resume is to use in it the most advantageous data borrowed from other sections of the business plan. That is why this section is developed at the very end of the business plan.

Systematizing the above, we recommend that in order to draw up a high-quality summary of the business plan, the following points should be covered in this section:

1) full and abbreviated name of the company;

2) the date of registration, the number of the registration certificate, the name of the body that registered the firm;

3) postal and legal addresses of the company;

4) subordination of the firm (superior body);

5) the mission of the company;

6) the economic sector of the industry (science, distribution, services, etc.) and the main type of activity;

7) the main products (services) offered by this industry;

8) geographical location;

9) features of the company's work;

10) main clients;

11) organizational and legal form of the company;

12) bank details;

13) the address of the tax office that controls the company;

14) the most influential shareholders;

15) last names, first names, patronymics and contact numbers (faxes, e-mail, etc.) of the company's management;

16) the age of the company, the period of work in the industry market;

17) the number of employees in the firm;

18) the financial condition of the company;

19) technical level and characteristics of currently manufactured products;

20) the volume of output of goods (services) and the market share owned by the firm;

21) the program and the main goal of the company;

22) subgoals of the firm, i.e. specific achievements to which it should strive;

23) the main strategy of the company, developed to achieve these goals;

24) the composition of specific measures to be taken within the framework of each strategy;

25) the essence of the proposed business: its compliance with the goals of the company and potential efficiency;

26) prospective forms of participation of investors in the company's business;

27) positioning in the market of offered goods (services) and possible competitors;

28) characteristics of the clientele;

29) competitive advantages of the offered products (services);

30) the total cost of the proposed business project and the need for financing;

31) possible sources of financing;

32) loan repayment guarantees;

33) forecast of sales of goods in the planned period (in physical and value terms);

34) planned costs for the implementation of the project;

35) expected net profit;

36) the level of profitability of investments in the project under consideration;

37) after what period can the return of borrowed funds be guaranteed (investors will begin to receive income);

38) prospects for the development of this business.

2. Business history of the organization (current situation and brief information about the enterprise)

It is necessary to begin this section with the coverage of basic information relating directly to your enterprise. Basic information about the enterprise includes the full and short name of the enterprise, date and place of registration, registration certificate number, legal and postal addresses, bank details, legal form, authorized capital, types and number, par value of issued shares, founders of the enterprise, indicating their shares in the authorized capital, the company's affiliation to various kinds of associations, the presence of branches and representative offices.

The business plan must specify the type of business envisaged (manufacturing, service, retail, distribution). The types of activities that the enterprise will be engaged in or are engaged in are represented. The choice made is justified.

The section describes the positive and negative aspects of the location of the enterprise, taking into account the following factors:

1) availability of labor force;

2) proximity to raw materials;

3) proximity to customers;

4) proximity to suppliers;

5) local tax laws, etc.

A special place in this section of the business plan should be given to the characteristics of the industry. At the same time, the specifics of the industry, the current state and prospects for its development, technological variability, science intensity, capital intensity, resource intensity, the level of monopoly, the growth trend of the industry market, etc. are indicated.

When describing in the business plan the factors affecting the activities of the enterprise, we are talking about factors and conditions that the enterprise cannot influence, but which negatively or positively affect its activities:

1) economic (business cycle, purchasing power of the population, inflation, etc.);

2) political (legislative instability);

3) demographic (birth rate, migration);

4) natural (deficiency of certain types of raw materials);

5) scientific and technical;

6) cultural and ideological.

An effective tool for analyzing an enterprise in relation to the external environment is SWOT analysis (SWOT is an abbreviated name formed from the initial letters of the English words "strength", "weakness", "opportunity", "threat"). SWOT analysis involves analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of the enterprise, forecasting potential threats, developing compensation measures, and analyzing the strategic and tactical capabilities of the enterprise.

SWOT-analysis allows you to clarify the goals and objectives of the enterprise.

The section ends with the formulation of the mission and goals of the enterprise and the definition of a business strategy.

The strategy formation process includes three stages:

1) formation of the general strategy of the enterprise (portfolio);

2) formation of business (competitive) strategy;

3) definition of functional strategies.

The overall strategy of the organization is formed by top management.

The development of a common strategy should solve two main tasks:

1) select and deploy the main elements of the overall strategy of the company;

2) establish the specific role of each of the firm's divisions in the implementation of the strategy and identify ways to determine the resources between them.

The main models that are most often used in the practice of business planning to develop a general strategy for the development of a company are portfolio analysis (the "growth - market share" matrix - a method developed by the American consulting firm "Boston Consulting Group", the "attractiveness - competitiveness" matrix - method developed by the McKinsey company by order of the General Electrician); matrix "product - market", proposed by I. Ansoff.

The variety of general strategies can be reduced to three main types, such as:

1) stability strategy;

2) growth strategy;

3) reduction strategy.

An organization can choose one of the types or apply certain combinations of different types (which is usually the case for large, differentiated companies).

Stability strategy - focusing on existing business lines and supporting them. Usually used by large firms that dominate the market. A concrete expression of this strategy may be the efforts of the firm to avoid government (state) control and (or) punishment for monopolization (a mode of action characteristic of Russian monopoly firms).

Growth strategy - increasing the organization, often through the penetration and capture of new markets.

Type of growth strategy:

1) vertical integration;

2) horizontal integration.

It is carried out in three ways:

1) takeover of competing firms through acquisition (acquisition of a controlling stake);

2) merger (association on approximately equal footing within a single organization);

3) the creation of a joint venture (association of organizations to implement a joint project, if it is beyond the power of one of the parties).

Reduction strategy applied when the survival of the organization is at risk. Its varieties are as follows:

1) reversal strategy. It is used if the organization is ineffective, but has not yet reached its critical point. It means abandoning the production of unprofitable products, excess labor, poorly functioning distribution channels and the further search for effective ways to use resources. In the event that the reversal strategy has yielded positive results, in the future you can focus on the growth strategy;

2) separation strategy. If the company includes several types of business and at the same time one of them does not work well, it is abandoned - the sale of this business unit or its transformation into a separate operating company;

3) liquidation strategy. In case of reaching a critical point - bankruptcy - the organization is destroyed, its assets are sold. The most undesirable of the reduction strategies, it creates inconvenience and losses for both the owners (shareholders) and the employees of the company.

Sometimes the general strategy of an organization is called a portfolio one, since it determines the level and nature of the organization's investments, sets the amount of capital investment in each of its units, i.e. forms a certain composition and structure of the organization's investment portfolio.

Efficiently allocated investments among the firm's business units can create a synergistic or strategic leverage effect, where certain costs for a combination of different types of strategies lead to much more significant benefits to the company's activities due to the successful complement or cooperation between business units.

The competitive strategy of the organization is aimed at achieving competitive advantages. If the firm is engaged in only one type of business, competitive strategy is part of the company-wide strategic planning. If an organization includes several business units (strategic divisions), each of them develops its own target strategy.

After the formation of a general development strategy, enterprises begin to define a business strategy. It aims to achieve competitive advantage.

On the basis of the general development strategy of the enterprise and the competitive strategies of individual strategic business units, they begin to form functional strategies.

Functional strategies are developed specifically for each functional space of the organization. They include the following elements:

1) R&D strategy;

2) production strategy;

3) marketing strategy;

4) financial strategy;

5) personnel management strategy.

Each functional strategy is detailed in the relevant sections of the business plan.

The R&D strategy summarizes the main ideas about a new product - from its initial development to its introduction to the market. It has two varieties: innovative and imitation. Innovative strategies, i.e., strategies for developing fundamentally new products and services, are costly and very risky (on average, only one out of seven innovations is a market success, the remaining six turn into sunk costs for the company). Therefore, simulation strategies are more popular and are widely used even in modern high-tech industries, such as the computer industry.

The production strategy is focused on decisions about the required capacities, the location of industrial equipment, the main elements of the production process, the regulation of orders. The two most important aspects of a manufacturing strategy are:

1) cost control;

2) improving the efficiency of production operations.

The marketing strategy is to identify suitable products, services and markets to which they can be offered. Determines the most effective composition of the marketing mix (market research, product and pricing policy, distribution channels and sales promotion).

The financial strategy is responsible for forecasting the financial performance of the strategic plan, evaluating investment projects, planning future sales, and allocating and controlling financial resources.

Many organizations are developing a personnel (human resources) management strategy, which solves the problems of increasing the attractiveness of work, motivation, personnel certification, maintaining such a number of employees in enterprises and types of jobs that correspond to the effective conduct of business. An important place has recently been occupied by the strategy of informatization, which ensures the introduction by firms of new effective methods of management, such as reengineering. We can especially talk about the development of a security strategy, taking into account its external and internal aspects.

An important topic of modern Russian management is the development of a survival strategy.

3. Description of the nature of the business

This section of the business plan should contain a description of all goods (services) of the organization that are offered on the market to buyers.

It is necessary to begin this section with the name (do not confuse with the brand name) of the new product and an indication of its specific features, purpose and areas of application.

It is desirable to clarify whether this product belongs to the substitute products of the previously produced one, or whether it is a completely new line. If this is a completely new product, different from previously produced goods, it is necessary to explain its possible impact on the production and sale of products that existed before this series. Will this influence be positive or negative, and will it not nullify the pre-existing structure of production?

It is necessary to explain what is the main idea of ​​the new product, whether its novelty is progressive, or whether it is a product of a nostalgic nature, the need for which is dictated by the influence of fashion and tradition.

The following is a proposal for a branded product name to create a memorable trade brand. Naturally, the name must be chosen in such a way that it is easy to read, remember and not associated with the consumer with any negative phenomena and objects.

The main technical, economic and consumer characteristics of the goods are given. It will not be superfluous in the business plan to have a drawing of the planned product or its photograph, you can also give a diagram of its design features (industrial goods), but you should not get carried away with unnecessary specific details, since the purpose of this section is to acquaint the reader with the product (service) proposed for production ), and not tire with complex technical calculations.

Then they justify the need for this product to consumers from the standpoint of the availability and the need to satisfy a particular need.

The practical possibility of producing this product under the conditions of existing production is considered, that is, the readiness of the currently existing production to switch to the production of the proposed product is considered.

If the company is not a pioneer in the production of this product and there are real precedents in the market, you can refer to the experience of similar production of other companies. Successfully given examples will, as it were, link your project with reality, convince you of the possibility of its implementation.

It is also necessary to clarify whether there is a license for the production of this type of product, and if not, within what time frame you are going to receive it. The same is true for a certificate.

If it was indicated above that the production capabilities of your enterprise currently allow you to start producing the proposed product, then the reader of the business plan will probably be interested in whether a trial batch of goods (items of goods or services) was produced and how successfully. If this product has not only already been produced, but also passed preliminary testing on the market, it is necessary to provide information on how it was perceived by consumers, and on the basis of this, a forecast of further market reaction should be provided. In cases with products that are traditional for the market (not actually new to it), it is possible to analyze the degree of variability in demand for this product, explaining the main reasons for changing consumer preferences.

The next important step is to draw the attention of the reader of the business plan to the not obvious, but very significant features of the product proposed for production:

1) features and advantages of the design of the proposed product;

2) features and advantages of the packaging of the proposed product, the degree of its ergonomics and patent protection;

3) features and advantages of the proposed manufacturing technology for this product;

4) features and benefits of the planned price for this product, etc.

It is important to emphasize that the designed product fully meets not only the requirements of the law (although this is a fundamental point), but also the traditions and customs of the country in which production is planned.

Next, they turn directly to marketing issues.

The characteristics of the main target markets where it is supposed to be implemented (market segmentation) are given, followed by the selection of the most promising one. The features of the process of selling goods are considered.

Speaking about actual competitors in relation to the proposed product, it would be appropriate to conduct a comparative analysis of their products: identify the main advantages and disadvantages, and then compare the results with the product you offer, substantiating its advantageous features and explaining the main directions in the work to improve the quality characteristics of project products . As a rule, such an analysis is done in the form of a table or graph, using the scoring method. If the production and sale of this product has already taken place, then the frequency of returns and cases of dissatisfaction with the quality of consumers are evaluated. The reasons are analyzed.

If the product offered for production is a technical product, it is desirable to indicate the features of the organization of pre-sales and after-sales services.

For goods planned for sale on foreign markets, it should be noted:

1) what changes (structural, organoleptic, etc.) it will be subject to for the possibility of its export;

2) what additional documents will be required;

3) what additional costs this will entail, etc.

At the final stage, financial calculations are given regarding the estimated price, costs and profit per unit of production. This information should be brief (it will be detailed in financial terms), but spectacular, since creditors and investors will be more interested in the financial side of the issue.

Section highlights:

1) the name of the new product (service) and its specification;

2) purpose and scope;

3) the possibility of replacing the old product with a new one;

4) inscribing the proposed product into the previously existing range of products;

5) progressiveness of the product idea;

6) the name of the product (service);

7) a visual representation of the goods (photo or drawing);

8) the main technical, economic and consumer characteristics of the goods (services);

9) needs (real and potential) that the proposed product (service) is intended to satisfy;

10) the degree of compliance of the product with the internal structure of the company;

11) the degree of development of the products proposed for production;

12) experience in the production and sale of similar products, results;

13) availability of a license for the production of goods (provision of services), the use of a trademark, the manufacture of an industrial design;

14) availability of a certificate or the need to fulfill certification requirements;

15) compliance of this product (service) with the requirements of legislation, traditions and customs of the market country;

16) the presence of a brand name for this product;

17) product design features;

18) features of the packaging of goods. What patents are they protected by;

19) the regularity of the acquisition of this product (service);

20) the degree of variability in demand for a given product (service);

21) features of the price of goods (services);

22) market segments for which it is designed;

23) the stage of the life cycle at which the product (service) is located at the moment;

24) assessment of the reaction of competitors to the product;

25) the period during which this product (service) will remain a novelty on the market;

26) features of the manufacturing technology of goods;

27) legal protection of the offered goods (services);

28) comparative analysis of similar products of competitors, conclusions;

29) availability of return of sold goods, reasons;

30) the availability of proposals for improving the product or service, further expanding (reducing) the scale of its production or its provision;

31) for goods (services) sold on foreign markets;

32) organization of pre-sales and after-sales services for this product (if it is a technical product):

a) the need to switch to another system of measurement;

b) the need for constructive changes;

c) acceptability for the market country of the name, color, packaging of goods;

d) acceptability for the market country of the language and content of the instructions attached to the goods;

e) the need to obtain additional documentation;

f) additional costs, etc. The prices at which the product (service) is sold, the costs that are required for its production, and the net profit that the sale of one unit of the product (service) will bring.

4. Market research and analysis (analysis of the business environment of the organization)

Market research and analysis - one of the most important stages in the preparation of business plans, which should provide answers to questions about who, why and in what quantities buys or will buy the company's products.

Domestic and foreign experience shows that poor knowledge of the market is one of the main reasons for the failure of many commercial projects. Among the main tasks of the enterprise, solved in this section of the business plan, is the determination of the demand and capacity of each specific market for each type of goods (services). These indicators will characterize the possible volumes of sales of goods (services). Both the success of the enterprise in the market and the time during which it can hold its position on it will depend on how carefully the level and structure of demand, the trends in its change, are studied and determined.

For Russian entrepreneurs, the preparation of this section of the business plan is extremely difficult. It is very difficult to find reliable summary market research. Foreign entrepreneurs can obtain the required data from local chambers of commerce, as well as from their industry and trade associations. Associations of this kind - free unions of entrepreneurs in a certain branch of production or trade - are widespread throughout the world. Here they are taking their first steps.

Meanwhile, the small apparatus of such an association is constantly doing very useful work to generalize the conditions for the supply, production and marketing of products manufactured by enterprises - members of the association. All members of the association provide information voluntarily and free of charge, and also free of charge (all expenses paid by membership fees) receive regular summary reviews: how the demand for the industry's products is changing, what changes have occurred or are emerging in its structure, what is happening with the prices of resources purchased by the industry.

Since the collection, processing and analysis of market information is a rather complicated process, it is advisable to involve specialized organizations in conducting research, which may require significant costs, which in most cases are justified. Experience shows that the failure of most commercial projects that fail over time is due precisely to poor market research and overestimation of its value.

The process of market research must begin with determining its type for each product or service, while the business planning process can be based on the following approaches to market classifications.

1. In the sphere of social production:

1) the market for goods of material production (raw materials, foodstuffs, machinery, equipment);

2) the market for goods of spiritual production (achievements of science, technology, works of art, books).

2. By nature of end use:

1) the market for industrial goods;

2) the market for consumer goods.

3. By the period of use:

1) the market for durable goods;

2) the market for non-durable goods;

3) the market for disposable goods.

4. By territorial coverage:

1) world;

2) internal;

3) regional.

5. By the ratio of sellers and buyers:

1) the market of free competition. Consists of a large number of independently acting sellers and buyers of a homogeneous product in a highly organized market (at the equilibrium price of general supply and demand). At the same time, no single enterprise can practically influence the level of current market prices for goods;

2) the market of monopolistic competition. It consists of many buyers and sellers who trade not at a single market price, but in a wide range of prices. The presence of the latter is explained by the ability of sellers to offer different options for goods that differ from each other in quality, properties, and external design. The presence of a large number of competitors limits the control of each of them over the price;

3) the oligopolistic market is characterized by a small number of sellers, the general interdependence of producers, as well as the ability of an individual enterprise to predict the response of competitors to changes in price or production volume. The small number of sellers is explained by the fact that it is difficult for new applicants to penetrate this market;

4) the market of pure monopoly. One seller with a product that has no analogue or substitute, which allows the manufacturer to dictate its terms to consumers. Monopoly on the demand side (when there is one buyer in the market) is called monopsony. If one seller is opposed by one buyer, the market structure is called a bilateral monopoly.

6. By sales volume:

1) the main market where the main part of the goods is sold;

2) an additional (auxiliary) market, which the company enters with a small part of the product;

3) a selective market, which is selected to determine the possibilities of selling new products, conducting trial sales.

When analyzing the sales market, its structure is studied, i.e., the operation of market segmentation is carried out - the division of the total population of consumers into certain groups (segments), which are characterized by common needs, requirements for the product and motives for its purchase. The success of the enterprise in the competitive struggle for the market largely depends on how correctly the market segment is chosen. With the help of segmentation, the following business planning goals are achieved:

1) the best satisfaction of the needs and requirements of people, fitting the product to the preferences of the buyer;

2) increasing the competitiveness of both the product and the manufacturer, strengthening competitive advantages;

3) evasion of competition by moving into an undeveloped market segment;

4) orientation of the firm to a specific consumer.

The meaning of segmentation is not only to identify some special groups of consumers, but to find those who now (or in the future) have different requirements for this product. Segmentation work must be carried out continuously and constantly due to changes in the competitive environment.

There is no single method for segmenting the market. It can be carried out on the basis of different signs or their combination. A sign of segmentation is an indicator of how a given segment is allocated in the market.

Currently, the following segmentation features are used:

1) socio-demographic parameters: nationality, religion, age, gender, marital status, education, cultural traditions, nature of work, etc.;

2) economic parameters: per capita income and its structure, the value of property, the amount of savings, the level of housing, etc.;

3) geographical features: economic and political zoning, population size, population density, natural and climatic zone, etc.;

4) behavioral characteristics of buyers: reasons for making purchases, intensity of consumption, impulsiveness, etc.;

5) psychographic features: lifestyle, personal qualities;

6) consumer features: price, quality, economy, brand, etc.

The next step is to assess the market conditions. Market conditions are the state of the market, characterized by the relationship between supply and demand for goods.

Demand is a solvent need. It is studied at various levels (for specific types of goods, for the goods of a given company, for the goods of a given industry, for the entire domestic market, in a regional context). Market demand has a functional nature. It is influenced by many factors - demographic, general economic, socio-cultural, psychological, etc.

The relationship between the demand for a product and the factors determining it is reflected in the general demand function and can be represented as:

C_x = f(P_x, P_y,..., P_z, I, W, T_x, F, S, q),

where C_x - volume of demand for product x per unit of time;

Р_x - the price of the product;

Р_y,..., R_z - prices of substitute goods and complementary goods;

I - income of the buyer;

W - the level of well-being, i.e., the purchasing power of the consumer;

Т_x - the need of the buyer for the product;

F - the opinion of the consumer regarding the prospects for his well-being;

S is the seasonality of the need satisfied by this product;

q is the number of buyers.

Demand is the quantity of a good that a buyer is willing to purchase under given conditions in a given period of time. If at least one of these factors changes, the volume of demand for this product will also change.

Demand for a firm's product acts as a certain proportion of the total market demand. It also has a functional nature. In addition to factors that determine the magnitude of total demand, it is influenced by factors that affect the share of the company's products in total sales in this market.

Most experts believe that this share is proportional to the marketing efforts of the firm.

The presence of demand is the basis for the production of goods. But to determine the optimal size of production, you need to know the magnitude of demand. Various calculation methods are used to determine the current and prospective demand. The value of current demand can be estimated by determining the volume of goods, the total cost of their implementation in this segment and identifying the number of potential consumers of this product living in the area of ​​the market.

Determination of prospective demand is made using forecasts, taking into account the action of various factors and the proposed marketing efforts. Complementing the demand forecasting procedure is the determination of the price elasticity coefficient of demand. In practice, the price of the final product is very rarely constant, so in the business plan, the forecast level of future demand should be directly linked to price changes in the product.

Price elasticity of demand is the ratio of the variation in quantity demanded to the variation in prices. It is calculated as follows:

where E is price elasticity;

Q₁ - new demand;

Q₀ - existing demand at the current price;

P₁ - new price;

P₀ - current price.

Price elasticity measures the percentage change in demand for a 1% change in price. It measures the sensitivity of buyers to price changes, which affects the quantity of goods they purchase.

Depending on the value of the price elasticity coefficient, there are:

1) AND_р < 1 - inelastic demand (exceeds price changes);

2) AND_р = 1 - demand unit elasticity (equal to price change);

3) AND_р > 1 - elastic demand (less price changes).

Ideally, in a business plan, you can build a mathematical dependence of the possible volume of demand on the price level. But you can get by with a simpler, graphical form of expressing this dependence.

Accurate assessment of the shape of the elastic demand curve is a rather complicated and expensive matter, requiring the involvement of specialists. But you can't do without it at all. One can try to determine the shape of this curve at least approximately on the basis of expert judgments of experienced specialists in the trade of goods of this type, which the company is going to produce. Experts, relying on their experience and knowledge, should indicate how many goods can approximately be sold at a particular price level, and also at what price level overstocking can begin and buyers will not take this product at all.

An expert assessment of price elasticity of demand will show the maximum price at which a product can be accepted by the market for a certain volume of sales.

After determining the magnitude of the current demand, it is necessary to establish the degree of its satisfaction. For this purpose, the market capacity is determined:

E \uXNUMXd P + O + I + E,

where P is the production of a given product in a given country;

O - the balance of commodity stocks in the warehouses of manufacturers in a given country;

I - import;

E - export.

Then we determine the degree of satisfaction of demand:

К_с =E/C

where K_с - the degree of satisfaction of demand;

E - market capacity;

C is the demand for this product.

If K_с > 1, it means that supply exceeds demand, and accordingly, if K_с < 1, demand exceeds supply.

The next step should be the selection of target market segments.

The target market is the most attractive market segment for the company at the moment, the mastery of which becomes the main task. It should be sufficiently capacious, have a development perspective, be free or relatively free from competitors, and be characterized by some unsatisfied demand. The selection of target markets is carried out by taking into account segmentation criteria, as well as market assessment data.

Segmentation criteria is an indicator of how correctly a company has chosen a particular target market for its activities. We list the most commonly used segmentation criteria in the practice of business planning:

1) quantitative boundaries. These include the potential capacity of the segment, i.e. answers to the questions, how many goods and what value can be sold on it, how many mandatory potential consumers, what is the area of ​​the segment, etc.;

2) availability of the segment. Is it possible to obtain distribution and marketing channels for products;

3) information saturation of the segment. Is it possible to obtain the necessary market information to create a data bank for the segment;

4) materiality of the segment. Determining the strength of a selected group of consumers, whether it will fall apart, whether its needs in relation to the goods produced are stable;

5) profitability, profitability of the segment. Such indicators as the rate of return, the amount of dividends per share, the increase in the total mass of the enterprise's profit, etc. are evaluated;

6) protection from competition. Opportunities of competitive firms are objectively assessed.

To optimize the number of possible target markets, concentrated and dispersed methods can be used. The concentrated method is based on an interactive, sequential search for the best segment. It is time consuming and relatively inexpensive. The dispersion method involves working on several market segments at once, and then selecting the most effective market segments by evaluating performance for a certain period.

For target markets, the business plan provides an overview of previous market development trends, describes the main factors influencing market growth (industry development trends, government policies, etc.), and predicts market growth.

This paragraph also reflects the factors of the company's position in the market, which may affect the sale of products:

1) the company's market share;

2) the prestige of the enterprise;

3) relationships with competitors;

4) the financial resources available to the enterprise for the implementation of the marketing policy;

5) flexibility of production and marketing programs.

The next step is to position the market.

Market positioning is a technology for determining the position of a product in individual market segments.

The purpose of positioning is to study the prevailing or emerging opinion, analyze the assessments of buyers or their groups regarding product parameters in order to optimize them in accordance with the wishes and requirements of consumers and, accordingly, create such a product position that will provide the product with competitive advantages in this segment of the target market.

Then, based on the assessment of the advantages of the goods produced by the enterprise, the possible volume of sales in physical and monetary terms is determined. It is advisable to prepare three development scenarios in the working version of the business plan: optimistic, pessimistic and most probable. The official business plan will include one of the sales options - the most optimal one. The sales forecast period must be linked to the overall planning period. Sales forecasts are a good management tool to help determine the impact of phenomena such as price, output and inflation on a company's cash flows. In the business plan, it is mandatory to present the main indicators in forecast prices, i.e. in prices expressed in monetary units corresponding to the purchasing power of each period of the project. It should be noted that forecast prices include forecast inflation rates. Forecast price at the t-th calculation step (for example, in the t-th year) P_t determined by the formula:

Ц_t = C_н x I(t, t_н),

where C_н - basic price of a product or resource;

I(t, t_н) - index of price changes (including due to inflation) of products or resources at the t-th step in relation to the initial moment of calculation, as a rule, t_н = t₀.

Forecasting in business planning generally serves to determine the development trends of a company in the face of constant changes in external and internal environmental factors and to search for rational measures to maintain the stability of its economic behavior. The scope of application of forecasting methods in business planning is quite wide. They are used to study market conditions, in the system of forecasting prices, new products and technologies, and the behavior of buyers in the market. When developing a business plan, the most important direction is forecasting the development of the market, its dynamics, structure, conjuncture, market opportunities to reproduce supply and demand. The need for forecasting is associated with both planned and practical work in the company, so every manager and business planner must have the basic skills of applied forecasting.

As a tool for forecasting, a system of methods is used that analyzes the causal parameters of past trends in the activities of the enterprise, and based on the results of the analysis, changes are formed in the perspective of the socio-economic development of the company.

Let us consider in more detail the main forecasting methods used in the process of evaluating the sales market, the results of which are reflected in this section of the business plan.

1. Qualitative methods. Based on a study of the researcher’s existing experience, knowledge and intuition. The most widely used methods in this group are expert assessments. The essence of the method is that forecast estimates are determined on the basis of the opinions of experts who are tasked with reasoned substantiation of their opinion on the state and development of a particular market or problem. Expert assessment methods, as a rule, are qualitative in nature.

For market forecasting, expert assessment methods can be used to:

1) development of medium and long-term demand forecasts;

2) short-term demand forecasting for a wide range of products;

3) assessment of emerging demand for new products;

4) determining consumer attitudes towards new products and possible demand for them;

5) evaluation of competition in the market;

6) determining the position of the company in the market, etc.

Less often, expert methods are used to predict the market capacity and sales volumes of the firm.

The advantages of expert methods are their relative simplicity and applicability in forecasting almost any situation, including in conditions of incomplete information. An important feature of these methods is the ability to predict the qualitative characteristics of the market, for example, a change in the socio-political situation in the market or the impact of the environment on the production and consumption of certain goods.

The disadvantages of expert methods include the subjectivity of expert opinions, the limitations of their judgments.

Expert assessments are divided into individual and collective.

К individual expert assessments include:

1) interview method;

2) analytical reports;

3) scenarios.

The interview method involves a conversation between the organizer of forecasting activities and an expert forecaster, in which questions are raised about the future development of the market, the state of the company and its environment.

The method of analytical memos means the independent work of an expert on the analysis of the business situation and possible ways of its development.

The scripting method has gained wide popularity in recent decades.

A scenario is a description (picture) of the future, based on plausible assumptions. As a rule, the situation forecast is characterized by the existence of a certain number of probable development options. Therefore, the forecast usually includes several scenarios. In most cases, these are three scenarios - optimistic, pessimistic and medium, that is, the most likely, expected.

Scenarios are being developed to frame the future development of the market. Since it is difficult to determine the quantitative parameters of the future (it is difficult to accurately determine the company's sales in 5 years), when compiling scenarios, qualitative methods and interval forecasts of indicators are most often used. At the same time, the scenario involves an integrated approach to its development, in addition to qualitative methods, quantitative methods can be used - economic and mathematical, modeling, cross-impact analysis, correlation analysis, etc.

Collective peer reviews include:

1) a survey of experts (consumers, salespeople, managers and specialists of the enterprise, specialists outside the enterprise competent in the area under consideration, etc.);

2) method of commissions;

3) the method of "brainstorming";

4) synectics method;

5) "Delphi" method.

The method of commissions may mean the organization of a round table and other similar events in which the opinions of experts are agreed.

Brainstorming or brainstorming methods are characterized by the collective generation of ideas and creative problem solving. "Brainstorming" is a free, unstructured process of generating any ideas on a chosen topic, which are spontaneously expressed by the meeting participants. As experts, as a rule, not only specialists in this problem are accepted, but also people who are specialists in other fields of knowledge. The discussion is based on a pre-designed scenario. For the successful application of this method, it is necessary to create a number of conditions, such as:

1) participation in the discussion from 5 to 15 people;

2) the duration of the meetings is from 15 to 30 minutes;

3) equality of all participants in the meeting;

4) the prohibition of criticism in any form;

5) the primacy of quantity over quality.

The topic of the problem is communicated to the participants of the meeting immediately before its opening.

On the basis of "brainstorming", W. Gordon in 1960 proposed the method of synectics. Its main difference from "brainstorming" is that a group of stable members acts as experts, which from "assault" to "assault" accumulates certain experience. In addition, the use of the synectics method allows critical statements. The method is based on the principle of systematic alienation from the original problem. Alienation is achieved through the use of analogy: fantastic, personal, direct, figurative, etc. The process of synectic search for ideas includes the following steps:

1) study of the problem;

2) analysis of the problem and explanation of it to experts;

3) testing understanding of the problem;

4) formulation of spontaneous decisions;

5) manager's assessment of understanding of the problem;

6) formation of analogy;

7) creating a connection between the analogy and the problem;

8) transition to the problem;

9) development of a solution.

The specificity of the "Delphi" method lies in the fact that the generalization of the results of the study is carried out by an individual written survey of experts in several rounds according to a specially developed research procedure. Before each round, experts are introduced to the results of the previous survey, not in order to put pressure on them, but in order to provide additional information about the subject of the survey. Ideally, the survey is repeated until the opinions of experts coincide, in reality - until the narrowest range of opinions is obtained.

The reliability of the "Delphi" method is considered high when forecasting both for a period of 1 to 3 years, and for a more distant period of time. Depending on the purpose of the forecast, from 1 to 150 experts can be involved in obtaining expert estimates.

2. Quantitative forecasting methods. Based on numerical mathematical procedures. Forecasting results based on quantitative methods are used in all areas of business planning, including general strategic planning, financial planning, production and inventory planning, marketing planning, etc.

In market research and analysis, quantitative forecasting methods are used to solve the following main tasks:

1) demand forecasting;

2) forecasting the market capacity;

3) forecasting the company's sales volumes, etc.

The group of quantitative methods includes:

1) analysis of time series;

2) economic and mathematical modeling;

3) the method of analogies;

4) normative method;

5) method of standard probability distribution.

Time series analysis is necessary to take into account temporary fluctuations in the quantities under study. Includes the following main methods:

1) trend analysis (extrapolation and trend correlation);

2) analysis of cyclicity;

3) seasonality analysis;

4) regression analysis.

Trend extrapolation methods are based on statistical observation of the dynamics of a certain indicator, determining the trend of its development and the continuation of this trend in the future period. In other words, with the help of trend extrapolation methods, the patterns of the past development of an object are transferred to the future.

Typically, trend extrapolation methods are used in short-term (no more than 1 year) forecasting, when the number of changes in the environment is minimal. The forecast is created for each specific object separately and sequentially for each next time point.

The most common trend extrapolation methods are the moving average method and the exponential smoothing method, forecasting based on the past turnover.

The moving average method proceeds from the simple assumption that the next indicator in time is equal in value to the average calculated over three periods.

The exponential smoothing method represents the forecast of the indicator for the future period as the sum of the actual indicator for the given period and the forecast for the given period, weighted using special coefficients:

F_{t + 1} = aX_t + (1 - a)F_t,

where F_{t + 1} - sales forecast for month t + 1;

X_t - sales in month t (actual data);

F_t - sales forecast for month t;

a is a special coefficient determined statistically.

Forecasting method based on past turnover. In this case, last year's sales data are taken as the basis for predicting future sales probabilities.

This forecasting method is suitable for industries and markets with a stable economic environment, a slightly changing range of goods and services, and slight fluctuations in trade.

In forecasting, extrapolation trend methods are supplemented by trend correlation methods, which examine the relationship between different trends in order to establish their mutual influence and, therefore, improve the quality of forecasts. Correlation analysis can examine the relationship between two indicators (pair correlation) or between many indicators (multiple correlation).

As part of the analysis of cyclicity, changes in the studied quantities associated with the business cycle are revealed. Cyclicity analysis is applicable to industries where this cyclicality is pronounced (eg, industries producing goods for the construction industry, industries producing consumer durables).

The seasonal nature of the use of goods also affects the magnitude of demand and sales.

Regression analysis consists in building a model of the dependence of a certain value on another value or several other values. It is performed in two stages:

1) selection of the type of line that aligns the broken line of the regression (straight line, parabola, hyperbola, etc.);

2) determination of the parameters included in the equation of the line of the selected type in such a way as to choose from the set of lines of this type the one that most closely passes near the points of the broken regression (the most accurate results are obtained by using the least squares method).

Regression analysis is mainly used in medium-term forecasting, as well as in long-term forecasting. Medium- and long-term periods make it possible to establish changes in the business environment and take into account the impact of these changes on the indicator under study.

Methods of economic and mathematical modeling. Business forecasting uses:

1) models of the internal environment of the company, the so-called corporate models;

2) macroeconomic models, which include econometric models, cost-output models.

Corporate models are usually a set of formulas (equations) that express the relationship of a number of variables to a specific object, such as sales volume.

In addition to formula models, intra-company planning can use matrix models (models in the form of tables), structural-hierarchical models that describe the internal structure and interconnection within an economic organization.

When using corporate models, it is useful to make not only forward-looking, but also retrospective (turned to the past) forecasts. Comparison of retrospective forecast data and actual data for the previous period allows us to conclude that the models are reliable.

With the help of econometric models, sales volumes are associated with macroeconomic variables (GNP growth, discount rate fluctuations, etc.), as well as with industry data (for example, industry market capacity, level of competition).

Most mathematical models are in the form of computer programs. Being in the process of execution, such programs allow you to explore the development of intra-company relationships, that is, they give the models a dynamic character.

The analogy method consists in forecasting, for example, the level and structure of demand by taking the actual data of individual markets as a standard. This forecasting method can be used to determine the prospects for the development of new types of products and services.

The normative method is quite widely used for demand forecasting. It makes it possible to take into account a wide range of factors that form demand, and thereby increase the reliability of predicted estimates. The normative method uses census data to determine the significance of factors such as average family size, age and sex composition of the population, etc.

The results of sample surveys of statistical agencies make it possible to clarify the provision of the population with durable items, etc. According to this method, the determination of the volume of demand for repair types of services, for example, can be carried out using the following formula:

V = (P x C_p x Q)/N,

where V is the volume of services per inhabitant;

P - fleet of items to be repaired;

C_р - average cost of one repair;

Q - the number of repairs per item;

N is the population.

According to the above formula, the demand of the population for services for the repair of shoes, clothes, furniture, etc. is determined.

The demand for sanitary and hygienic services (dry cleaning, laundry) can be predicted using the following formula:

CH = H - C_р,

where CH is the demand of the population;

H - the rate of accumulation of products, kg;

С_р - the average cost of processing one kilogram of products.

When forecasting the market, the standard probability distribution method has become widely used. The essence of this method is as follows. Expert way defines three types of sales forecasts: OP - optimistic forecast; VP - the most probable forecast; PP - pessimistic forecast.

An optimistic estimate of sales growth can be defined as the difference between demand and market capacity.

OP \uXNUMXd C - E.

Since the situation in the economy is currently extremely unstable, the most probable estimate of the forecast may be 50% of the optimistic forecast, and the pessimistic estimate of the forecast - 10% of its optimistic value.

Next, the expected value of the sales forecast P is calculated._о according to the formula:

П₀ \u4d (OP + 6VP + PP) / XNUMX.

The standard deviation of CO is determined by the formula:

SLO \u6d (OP - PP) / XNUMX

In accordance with the general theory of statistics, the most probable value of the variable - the sales forecast (with a probability of 95%) - will be within:

П_с = Π₀ ± 2 SD.

The effectiveness of the application of one or another forecasting method depends on the specific conditions and specifics of the economic activity of the enterprise and can only be determined directly by the enterprise itself. It is usually considered that the forecast is correct if the difference between the estimated and actual sales is no more than 5%.

First, you need to draw up a so-called competitor map and identify strategic groups of competitors. Competitors are mapped based on their comparison and grouping according to certain factors, such as, for example, the number of product ranges and the number of regions covered. Based on the compiled map of competitors, strategic groups of competitors operating in the market are distinguished. It should be noted that competition between such groups is practically absent, but within them it is very strong. This grouping allows you to more reasonably indicate the main competitors of the company.

Next, it is necessary to conduct a realistic assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of competing products (services) and name the companies that produce them, identify sources of information indicating which products are the most competitive, compare competing products (services) at the base price, characteristics, service, warranty obligations. and other significant features. This information should be presented in the form of a table. It should briefly justify the existing advantages and disadvantages of competing goods (services). It is desirable to display what knowledge about the actions of competitors can help your company create new or improved products (services).

The rank of the company and the main competitors can be indicated for clarity on a 5- or 10-point system.

For each of the target markets, it is necessary to compare transport costs with those of competitors, the quality of products and packaging, compare opportunities for price reduction, and also have an idea about the advertising campaign and the image of firms.

When analyzing competitors, you can use specially developed techniques. So, for example, the American company MacKay Envelope Corporation, in order to more thoroughly analyze competitors, developed a "12-point competitor profile", which in essence resembles a dossier. Below are the main points of this development.

1. Pedigree:

1) the name of the competitor company;

2) the location of the main board;

3) if a branch, then whose;

4) in public or private ownership.

2. Physical characteristics (given for a manufacturing company):

1) the number of enterprises;

2) the location of these enterprises;

3) the number of employees in each enterprise;

4) geographical area (industries, market segments) of service;

5) geographical areas (industries, market segments) of satisfactory service.

3. Financial performance results:

1) the end of the financial year;

2) income for the last year;

3) profit for the last year;

4) trends in financial activity for the last 2 - 3 years;

5) the rating given to this firm by experts;

6) general financial position (strong, satisfactory or unstable).

4. Pricing:

1) the pricing policy of this firm (prices are high and set arbitrarily, prices are low and set to unfairly fight competitors);

2) reaction to price competition.

5. Frames:

1) the essence of the personnel policy of the company;

2) key employees, their positions;

3) the reputation of the firm as an employer.

6. Market position:

1) target market, products;

2) short-term strategy of the firm;

3) long-term strategy of the company.

7. Plans:

1) maintaining positions or active development;

2) acquisition of an enterprise, merger or acquisition.

8. Firm as supplier:

1) average delivery time;

2) quality of service;

3) strengths in service;

4) weaknesses in maintenance;

5) customer problems are easily or difficult to solve;

6) organization of presentations, entertainment, distribution of gifts, etc.;

7) the most important customers of the company;

8) the methods used by the firm in business relations (extremely honest, far from flawless).

9. The prestige of the company in the business world:

1) the reputation of the firm;

2) legal or reputational issues;

3) charity;

4) top management of the firm;

5) opinion about the company in the industry, in trade organizations.

10. Workarounds for getting information:

1) the presence or absence of employees from a competing firm who should be asked confidentially about this firm;

2) availability of a source of information about the competitor;

3) information about what the competing firm thinks of you (does it consider you inert, energetic, technically superior, etc.);

4) the presence of articles about a competing company in the industry press, in the financial press or in the press of a general nature (if yes, then be sure to place copies of these articles in the dossier).

11. Upcoming fight in the "ring of competition":

1) information about the trading agent (agents) of a competing company when concluding transactions with these clients;

2) information about in which area of ​​our industry (territory, market segment, etc.) they conduct their operations, how you could profitably increase your share in these operations;

3) cases when you (or someone else) won over them in a business relationship, if "yes", how did you achieve this.

12. Match forecast: we will win over this competitor if we cope well with the following five tasks (it is necessary to list five priority tasks-conditions):

1)...;

2)...;

3)...;

4)...;

5) ....

The recognized leader in the development of competitive analysis is Professor M. Porter of the Harvard Business School, the author of the main models for determining the main forces of competition and options for competitive strategies.

According to his theory of market share, the profit level of a firm is determined by how effectively the company counteracts the following competitive forces:

1) new competitors entering the industry producing similar products;

2) threat from substitute goods (substitutes);

3) competing companies that have already established themselves in the industry market;

4) influence of sellers (suppliers);

5) the strength of the influence of buyers (clients).

M. Porter identified three main types of strategy that are universal in nature and applicable to any competitive force. It's a cost advantage, differentiation, focus.

Cost advantage creates greater freedom of choice of actions both in pricing policy and in determining the level of profitability.

Differentiation means the creation by a company of a product or service with unique properties, which are most often secured by a trademark. Sometimes the uniqueness of a product does not go beyond a simple declaration, then we can talk about imaginary differentiation.

Focusing - this is a focus on one of the market segments, on a special group of buyers (for example, only on older buyers, or only on wealthy, or on elderly wealthy buyers), a certain group of goods or on a limited geographical sector of the market.

Section highlights.

1. Market assessment:

1) the markets in which the business is planned. Their types and names (for example, soft drinks market);

2) promising markets;

3) the location of markets relative to the firm;

4) characteristics of the main and auxiliary markets (their size, trends and expected immediate changes);

5) the estimated capacity of each of these markets;

6) an optimal distribution system that allows penetrating into these markets;

7) the impact of the state (regional) policy on the import of the company's goods to the markets;

8) part of the population already buying similar goods (and which companies);

9) the reasons for the purchase by certain social groups of just such goods, and not other similar ones;

10) the attitude of the population as a whole to the goods of the group to which the products offered by the company belong;

11) specific requirements put forward by certain groups of the population in relation to the goods of this group;

12) characteristics of the main consumers of this type of goods (nationality, gender, socio-economic group, age, etc.);

13) customers to be counted on in different sales regions;

14) main market segments for each type and modification of goods (services), their names;

15) total and import capacity of each segment for this product (service);

16) the company's share in these markets and the prospects for maintaining or increasing it;

17) analysis of markets (market segments) according to the degree of competition;

18) ranking these markets (market segments) according to their value to the company and other criteria;

19) factors affecting the demand for goods (services) of the company in each of these segments;

20) forecasts of changes in the needs of buyers in each of the markets and segments;

21) proposals for an appropriate response to these changes;

22) methodology for studying needs and assessing demand;

23) the executor of the study of needs and assessment of demand (who conducts the study: the company itself or special profile companies);

24) forecasts of changes in the capacity of segments in each market in the near future and in the future;

25) potential sales volume;

26) the expected reaction of the market to a new product (service);

27) availability of test sales and market testing.

2. Assessment of the competitive environment:

1) characteristics of the area of ​​activity of the company (dynamic; conservative);

2) map of competitors;

3) the number of competing firms, their names;

4) the part of the market controlled by large competing firms and the dynamics of market mastery by these firms;

5) factors determining competition in the present and future;

6) trends that can change the balance of power in the competition;

7) the state of affairs of competing firms with income, the introduction of new models, after-sales service;

8) the subject of the most intense competition in this field of activity (price, quality, after-sales service, company image, etc.);

9) competitors' plans for their market share, increasing production profitability and increasing sales;

10) market strategies currently followed by competing firms;

11) means used by competitors to implement the chosen strategies;

12) strengths and weaknesses of competitors;

13) actions expected in the future from existing and potential competitors;

14) features of the behavior of competing firms in relation to advertising their goods (services);

15) products of competitors (main technical and economic indicators, quality level, design, etc.);

16) the price of competitors' products and their pricing policy;

17) the image of competing firms;

18) whether the conduct of scientific research and the implementation of new developments is an important component of success in this business area;

19) competitiveness of the offered goods in each market and segment;

20) how effectively competitors respond to the needs and desires of consumers;

21) new types of services required in the market;

22) the impact of competition on the assortment policy;

23) markets and segments to which new products should be promoted (what and why);

24) goods that should be discontinued (why).

5. Development of a marketing plan

The marketing section is one of the most important parts of a business plan, as it talks directly about the nature of the intended business and the ways in which it can be expected to succeed.

When developing this section of the business plan, it is necessary to be based on the following principles:

1) the principle of understanding the consumer, based on taking into account the needs and dynamics of market conditions. Business is impossible if the firm is focused only on profit, and not on understanding the needs of existing and potential markets;

2) the principle of struggle for the consumer (client). This principle is implemented by actively influencing the market and the consumer with the help of all available means (quality of goods, advertising, service, prices, etc.). The essence of this principle is the struggle for the consumer, and not for the sale of goods. Goods and services in this case are only a means to an end, not the end itself;

3) the principle of maximum adaptation of production to market requirements. This principle is that all activities of the company are based on knowledge of consumer demand and its changes in the future. It makes the production of goods and the provision of services functionally dependent on requests and requires the production of goods in the range and volume required by the consumer.

Also, when carrying out marketing activities, it must be remembered that the process of coordinating the company's capabilities and consumer requests takes place in a certain external (environment) environment, which is influenced by factors such as:

1) the stability of the political and legal system in the country of the market, providing legal protection for the activities of domestic and foreign entrepreneurs;

2) economic and demographic factors: the state of the economy, living standards, the purchasing power of society, demographic processes in it, the features and state of the financial system, inflationary processes, taxation systems, etc.;

3) the legislative system that regulates the activities of the organization;

4) the level of scientific and technological progress, which makes it necessary to produce new products and carry out effective marketing activities;

5) socio-cultural level of the population, geographical, climatic and historical conditions, cultural traditions that have a great influence on marketing activities. When writing this section, it must be borne in mind that the marketing plan includes a large number of questions that need to be answered in a detailed, exhaustive way when compiling it. Naturally, it is not necessary to include all the details of the marketing plan in the business plan. It is expedient to state the main things in it on several pages: what is the marketing strategy adopted in the company, how the product will be sold - through its own branded stores or through wholesale trade organizations; how prices for goods will be set, what level of profitability on invested funds is expected to be realized; how it is supposed to achieve a constant growth in sales volumes - by expanding the sales area or by searching for new forms of attracting additional buyers; how the service will be organized and how much money will be needed for this; how it is supposed to achieve a good reputation of the products and the company itself in the eyes of the public.

It is recommended to include in this section such items as:

1) goals and marketing strategies;

2) pricing;

3) a scheme for the distribution of goods;

4) sales promotion methods;

5) organization of after-sales customer service;

6) advertising;

7) formation of public opinion about the company and products;

8) marketing budget;

9) controlling marketing.

Marketing Goals and Strategies. After determining the overall target strategy of the company for each type of product, a detailed action plan is developed. The main criteria for assessing the strategy here are assortment, market, competition. The range of products offered ultimately depends on the need for product quality among end consumers. Differences in product types in the assortment must meet the specific requirements of consumers.

The size of the market is determined by the number of potential consumers in each individual product.

Evaluation of competitors involves identifying firms on the market that sell goods with similar qualities and are capable of replacing the proposed product.

Pricing. The pricing strategy may be based on cost, demand or competition. In a cost-based strategy, the entrepreneur determines prices by calculating production, service and overhead costs, and then adds the desired profit to these figures. Demand is not being studied.

As part of a demand-based strategy, the price is determined at the level of the average market, and the costs in this case should not exceed the amount calculated as the difference between price and profit.

With a competitive pricing strategy, prices can be either lower or higher than market prices, depending on the loyalty of consumers, the service provided, and the image of the product. This principle is used by firms that have competitors.

In addition, this section may suggest and justify any of the following strategies:

1) setting standard prices. They are established when a channel participant determines the prices of goods or services and seeks to keep them constant over a long period of time. They are used for products such as candy, chewing gum, magazines;

2) variable pricing. The firm deliberately changes prices to respond to changes in costs or consumer demand. Using this strategy, you can offer different prices to target certain market segments. In this case, the prices charged to different consumers are not based on costs;

3) establishment of uniform and flexible prices. Within the framework of uniform prices, one price is set for all consumers who would like to purchase goods under similar conditions. The price may vary depending on the quantity purchased, the time of the transaction and the service received. This policy builds consumer confidence, is easy to implement, and catalog sales are possible. Flexible pricing allows you to change prices depending on the ability of the consumer to bargain and their purchasing power. Jewelry stores, car dealers, real estate brokers, and industrial firms often use flexible pricing;

4) the strategy of unrounded prices. This strategy occurs when prices are set below round sums. A psychological factor comes into play - consumers like to get change. Consumers get the impression that the firm carefully analyzes its prices and sets them at the lowest possible level. You may get the impression that there is a sale at a discount;

5) the concept of "price - quality". This is the concept that consumers often assume that high prices mean high quality and low prices mean low quality. Often consumers do not buy a product at a price that is considered too low.

When entering the market, it is often advisable for a manufacturer to apply price leadership tactics. This means that the firm advertises and sells a portion of its product range at prices that provide a lower than normal profit share. This attracts great interest of buyers to the entire range.

Another method used if you want to increase the volume of sales of products is the establishment of discounts for bulk purchases. Consumers may in this case increase their current purchases if they feel that they are getting favorable terms in this way. Discounts attract consumers of competing products.

Product distribution scheme. According to this paragraph, the organization’s marketing plan must indicate a scheme for selling goods.

Distribution and marketing include three elements: transportation, storage and contact with consumers. Products can be sent from the manufacturer through distribution channels to consumers. Since production often exceeds current demand, products must be stored. This is also reflected in this section of the business plan. Finally, in order to sell products (services) to consumers, you need to determine the seller or store, opening hours, having the appropriate equipment and managing inventory.

There are a number of key factors to consider when choosing distribution channels.

1. Consumers:

1) characteristics: quantity, needs, average purchase size;

2) needs: location and opening hours of the store, assortment, assistance from sales staff, credit conditions;

3) segments: size, buying behavior.

2. Company:

1) goals: control, sales, profit, time;

2) resources: flexibility, level, service needs;

3) knowledge: functions, specialization, efficiency;

4) experience: methods of promotion, relations in the sales system.

3. Product or service:

1) cost: unit price;

2) complexity: technical side;

3) safety: storage period, frequency of shipments;

4) volume: unit mass, separability.

4. Competition:

1) characteristics: number, concentration, assortment, consumers;

2) tactics: methods of distribution, relations in sales.

5. Channels of distribution:

1) alternatives: direct, indirect;

2) characteristics: quantity, functions performed, traditions;

3) accessibility: monopoly arrangements, territorial restrictions;

4) legal aspects: relevant laws and bills.

There are two main types of distribution channels:

1) direct channels associated with the movement of goods from the producer to the consumer without the use of independent intermediaries. They are used by an enterprise that wants to control the entire marketing program or has a limited target market;

2) indirect channels of goods movement associated with the movement of goods first to the intermediary, and then to the consumer. They usually attract firms that, in order to increase their markets and sales, are willing to give up many sales functions and a share of control over the distribution channel. Since the indirect channels include independent participants, a general plan for the distribution of responsibilities is being developed. In contract agreements, all conditions are negotiated. The contract highlights the terms of delivery, discounts on the size of deliveries, commissions, terms of payment, support in advertising.

An assessment is made through which trading network (wholesale or retail) the product (service) is mainly sold or is supposed to be sold.

There are three general categories of organization of wholesale activities, their brief characteristics are given below.

1. Wholesale activities of manufacturers. Manufacturers themselves perform all wholesale functions. (This is appropriate if the company believes that it will most effectively enter the retail trade if it itself takes on the functions of wholesale distribution. These are usually firms that sell household appliances, cosmetics, and medicines.)

2. Commercial wholesalers buy products for resale. They assemble the assortment in a certain place, provide trade credit, store and deliver goods, offer assistance in their sale, offer support in the field of research and planning. (Their services are often used by food manufacturers.)

3. Agents and brokers perform wholesale functions but do not take ownership of the goods. (The use of agents and brokers has three main advantages: allows the manufacturer or supplier to increase sales despite limited resources; distribution costs are predetermined as a percentage of sales; and they have a trained sales force.)

Retailing generally performs four functions. She participates in the sorting process, collecting an assortment of goods from a large number of suppliers, and offers them for sale; presents information to consumers through advertising, shop windows and inscriptions; carries out operations for the maintenance of goods; closes deals using the appropriate store locations and opening hours.

Sales promotion. An organization can use a wide range of sales promotion tools:

1) direct mail;

2) trade shows and demonstrations;

3) placement of advertisements;

4) printed and audiovisual means;

5) shop windows;

6) business meetings and conferences;

7) paying coupons, etc.

The type of sales promotion largely depends on the organization's strategy, its position in the market, financial capabilities, product specifics, etc. All this is reflected in this section of the business plan in the form of an incentive plan, the development of which consists of the following elements:

1) setting goals. Sales promotion objectives are almost always demand-driven. Objectives related to channel members include providing the most favorable distribution conditions, increasing dealer enthusiasm, etc. Objectives related to consumers include increasing brand recognition, increasing attempts to try the product and service;

2) responsibility for sales promotion, usually shared by advertising and sales managers. Each presides over the stimulation associated with his area. The ad manager is associated with coupons, contests, calendars. The sales manager is engaged in trade deliveries, discounts, exhibitions;

3) a developed overall plan, including budget, orientation or theme, conditions, media, duration, and chronological sequence. When setting a budget, it is important to include all costs;

4) choice of the type of stimulation. It is based on factors such as the image and goals of the organization, costs. This is achieved by establishing premiums for sellers when selling goods for a certain amount, organizing exhibitions, holding trade competitions for dealers, organizing lotteries, replacing obsolete modules on preferential terms, by setting discounts for bulk purchases;

5) coordination of the plan, i.e., linking the advertising plan with sales promotion;

6) evaluation of success or failure.

After-sales service. In this section it is necessary to highlight issues related to the conditions of warranty and post-warranty service, the provision of a range of services in each of these types of service, the structure and location of service enterprises. After-sales service planning consists of determining the organization's policy in the context of the following issues:

1) compliance of the range and quality of after-sales services with the needs of consumers. After-sales service should be defined as the sale of services to consumers on a service basis for a purchased product for a specified period. What type of service provision is preferable - through branded stores or under contracts with warranty workshops;

2) the frequency of use of individual parts and assemblies. Allocate parts of the goods that can be served separately. The main factor that determines the effectiveness of service is highlighted - the speed of providing services to restore the consumer properties of the goods;

3) well-established mechanism for supplying warranty workshops with the necessary number of spare parts.

Advertising. The positive side of advertising is that it can reach a large and geographically dispersed market. The downside is that since all advertising messages are standardized, they lack flexibility. They are difficult to adapt to the needs and characteristics of consumers.

The developed advertising plan should contain the following information:

1) set goals. The objectives of advertising can be subdivided into demand-related and image-related;

2) established responsibility. The firm may use its own advertising division or an external advertising agency;

3) detailed advertising budget;

4) developed advertising themes that are common to the entire organization. (Orientation to the product makes you pay attention to its properties, and orientation to the consumer brings in the first place the profitability or advantages of the product for the consumer, and not their properties.);

5) the chosen means of advertising;

6) proposed solutions for:

a) the content of the message (video);

b) work schedule;

c) the place of announcements in a broadcast or printed publication;

d) other conditions;

7) the period during which the advertisement will be published.

Formation of public opinion ("Public relations"). In terms of marketing, special attention should also be paid to public opinion about the organization and its products (services) and, accordingly, to the methods of its formation. Large Western companies create special services for this purpose. The objectives of the "Public relations" service are:

1) the systematic creation of a favorable attitude towards the firm of the general population, including the government apparatus and state institutions. To this end, communication is maintained with representatives of the media through press conferences, articles in newspapers and magazines or television reports on social or charitable activities, anniversary events, organizing open days;

2) implementation of a trade presentation, which is associated with the demonstration of goods with a display of their merits, existing options and models, prices, services provided;

3) conducting institutional advertising;

4) provision of consulting services with the issuance of proposals to the management on issues of public recognition of the company, its position in the market and image.

Marketing budget development. The simplest way to determine a budget is as follows:

1) the total market volume for each of the goods for the next year is estimated;

2) a forecast is made of the company's share in this market, taking into account the planned marketing activities;

3) the volume of sales, costs and profits for each of the goods are estimated;

4) the difference between the planned (without marketing activities) profit and the profit received as a result of the assessment is determined;

5) part of this difference (usually 50%) is allocated to the marketing budget;

6) the marketing budget is determined by summing up for all products.

This budget is distributed by item of expenditure on marketing in the proportions of the previous year.

Controlling. Controlling refers to the quantitative and qualitative preparation and assessment of operational and strategic decisions of management, analysis of the company’s economic activities.

Controlling should help the management of the company in managing the company, focusing on the needs of the market, to direct coordinated marketing activities and funds to achieve the goals of the company. Therefore, it is also important to present information about it in a business plan.

Section highlights:

1) the main objectives of marketing;

2) the main strategy for the development of the business object;

3) marketing strategy for all market segments;

4) product strategy;

5) the main approach of the firm to pricing;

6) pricing strategy (high quality or uniqueness of the product - high price; price depending on competitors' prices; low production costs - low price, etc.);

7) the price of goods (or services) produced by the firm;

8) inclusion in the price of goods of the cost of guaranteed after-sales and additional services;

9) the nature of the reflection of costs, demand, competitiveness of goods by prices;

10) the ability of the firm at such prices to control a sufficient part of the market;

11) price dynamics of competitors;

12) compliance of the offered prices with the image of the company;

13) the attitude of buyers to the prices for goods established by the company;

14) the most likely reaction of buyers to an increase or decrease in prices for the company's goods (there is an elasticity of demand);

15) consumer segments that benefit the most from price cuts;

16) capacity and specific gravity of these segments;

17) the number of buyers that the company can lose when prices for goods increase;

18) existence and nature of the price promotion policy;

19) the company's actions when prices are reduced by competitors;

20) pricing policy of the company;

21) the scheme of receipt of each product on the market;

22) the structure and size of distribution channels;

23) reliability and profitability of these distribution channels;

24) optimality of the goods transportation scheme;

25) modes of transport (railway, sea, road, etc.), frequency of use in the transportation of finished products and raw materials;

26) availability of own transport (what kind, in what quantity);

27) attraction of transport firms (what and with what result);

28) ways to speed up and reduce transportation costs;

29) ways to ensure the safety of goods in transit;

30) the firm has a strong trading organization;

31) method of organizing trade (independently or through a network of intermediaries);

32) optimal location in relation to the markets of warehouses and shops;

33) the number of warehouses (own and leased) and their capacity;

34) necessary stocks of goods in warehouses;

35) the optimal size of the consignment of goods in terms of sale;

36) assessment of the number and qualifications of employees of the sales services of the company, dealers, other intermediaries in each outlet;

37) performance indicators of the company for the sale of goods (revenue, expenses for each visit to the client, the number of clients served, contracts concluded, etc.);

38) provision of dealers and other intermediaries with all the information necessary for their work;

39) the level of damage to goods during the distribution of goods;

40) organization of control over distribution channels;

41) alternative channels and methods of distribution of goods;

42) the prospect of development of the company's sales network;

43) availability of an after-sales service system on the market;

44) characteristics of the service sector (pre-sales and after-sales);

45) compliance of the range and quality of customer service services with their requests;

46) the optimal location of service points and warehouses of spare parts in relation to the consumer;

47) features of the organization of warranty repairs;

48) average repair time compared to competitors;

49) average troubleshooting time compared to competitors;

50) average cost of repairs and spare parts in comparison with competitors' prices;

51) the frequency of use of individual parts and assemblies and the frequency of their deliveries to service points;

52) presence of customer complaints about the lack or delay of the necessary spare parts;

53) the optimal size of stocks in the spare parts warehouse;

54) applied inventory control system;

55) qualification and sociability of service workers of the company;

56) consumer feedback on the work of each of the service points;

57) ways to improve the service maintenance system;

58) selection and evaluation of various methods of sales promotion (credit, discount on purchase, bonuses, guarantee of payments, preferential transactions, etc.) for company employees, intermediaries and trade, consumers;

59) organization and participation in sales exhibitions, fairs, consumer conferences;

60) offering samples for testing;

61) availability of sale by installments;

62) the degree of openness of the company to consumers;

63) conducting tastings (for food products);

64) dependence of the salary of employees of the sales service of the company, dealers, other intermediaries on the sale of goods;

65) a system of incentives for the work of dealers and other resellers (bonuses, valuable gifts, etc.);

66) terms of delivery of goods;

67) goals set for advertising, and their relationship with the goals of the company;

68) object of advertising;

69) orientation of advertising (target groups of buyers, market segment, market as a whole, etc.);

70) types and methods of using mass media in advertising activities;

71) grounds for choosing one or another type of advertising;

72) funds allocated for advertising;

73) corporate style of advertising;

74) advertising companies with which the firm works;

75) assessment by buyers of the quality of appeals and the form of presentation of the company's advertising;

76) the effectiveness of advertising work and the possibility of improving it;

77) the expediency of creating a public relations service in the company;

78) the expediency of organizing meetings with representatives of the public and the media (with what frequency);

79) work on organizing a public relations department;

80) availability of meetings with representatives of the press, radio and television;

81) membership of the firm in public associations;

82) marketing budget (planned costs for the implementation of the marketing plan);

83) features of the organization of controlling planning;

84) a list of information areas (economic framework conditions, observed qualitative trends, observation of competitors, etc.) covering controlling;

85) methods of analysis used in controlling;

86) features of the questionnaires, forms and other things used in the company in controlling (standard, in-house development).

6. Drawing up a production plan

You need to start the production plan with a brief explanation of where the goods will be manufactured - at an existing or newly created enterprise. Then you can emphasize the advantageous location of the enterprise (if this fact takes place) in relation to sales markets, suppliers, labor, services, etc.

The next step in writing this section might be to describe the manufacturing process. For this, the type of production (single, serial, mass), the method of its organization, the structure of the production cycle are indicated, a process flow diagram can be given that clearly shows where and where all types of raw materials and components will come from, in which workshops and how they will be processed into products. The production plan assesses the existing technology in the following areas: technology compliance with modern requirements, the level of automation of the production process, ensuring process flexibility, the possibility of a rapid increase or decrease in output.

This section notes the main directions for improving the development of technology, provided for by the business plan.

If the technology for the production of a product changes in the future period, then the business plan notes how the proposed changes in technology will affect the quality of the product, the level of production costs, and the price of the product.

If the production process provides for the performance of part of the operations by subcontractors, this is also specifically noted in the business plan. The expediency of choosing specific partners is substantiated from the point of view of minimizing the costs of production, transportation, incoming control of units and semi-finished products supplied by the subcontractor. When choosing partners, their reliability, production, financial, personnel capabilities, and prestige are evaluated.

Especially in the business plan, the current product quality management system is considered at the enterprise. It is reported at what stages and by what methods quality control will be carried out, what standards will be followed by product manufacturers.

The production plan may also include information about the environmental protection system, indicate the measures taken for waste disposal and the corresponding costs.

Manufacturing program (forecast of production and sales volumes), given in the business plan, is compiled on the basis of the results of marketing research of the sales market with their subsequent comparison with the production capabilities of the enterprise.

The production program determines the required volume of production in the planned period, corresponding in terms of nomenclature, assortment and quality to the requirements of the sales plan. It determines the tasks for the commissioning of new production capacities, the need for material and raw materials, the number of personnel, and transport.

Enterprises form a production program based on the state order, consumer orders identified in the process of studying the consumer demand market.

The main indicators of the production program are:

1) a nomenclature containing the name of the product, indicating the quantity, quality and deadlines for delivery;

2) commercial products;

3) work in progress;

4) gross output.

The production activity of the enterprise, in turn, is characterized by a system of indicators:

1) demand for products;

2) production capacity;

3) the volume of production;

4) costs and prices;

5) the need for resources and investments;

6) total and net income of the enterprise;

7) dividends on shares, etc.

The plan for the production and sale of products contains, as a rule, a system of natural and cost indicators.

The advantages of natural indicators are visibility, objectivity in assessing the satisfaction of needs in a particular type of product, the contribution of each enterprise to solving this problem, the degree of use of capacities and production resources.

The disadvantage is that it is difficult to determine the total volume of production and sales at enterprises with a multi-product output.

The main cost indicators of output at the enterprise include gross turnover, intra-factory turnover, marketable products, gross output, volume of products sold, standard cost of processing (NSO), net and conditionally net products.

In different periods of the development of the country's economy, preference was given to one or the other cost indicators characterizing the volume of output.

The gross turnover of the enterprise is the total cost of production of all the main, auxiliary, service shops. Products are included in the gross turnover regardless of whether they are intended for sale abroad or for further industrial processing at the same enterprise. Thus, this indicator allows for repeated counting of products within the enterprise. The calculation of gross turnover acquires a certain economic significance when analyzing the work of an enterprise, substantiating planned indicators, when the production structure of an enterprise changes (new workshops are introduced, existing ones are expanded), when the structure of production changes due to a change (increase, decrease) in the volume of cooperative deliveries to the enterprise.

Intrafactory turnover - the sum of the cost of products of own production, consumed within the enterprise for production needs. Production consumption within the enterprise includes the processing of semi-finished products of its production for the production of finished products, the consumption of electricity, compressed air, steam of its production, the use of parts, products of its production for the current repair of buildings, structures, equipment.

Commodity, gross, sold output is determined according to the factory method, i.e., the cost of that part of the output that is used within the enterprise for its own industrial and production needs is excluded from the cost of finished products and semi-finished products planned for production. The disadvantage of this method is that the value of commodity, gross, sold products may change as a result of changes in the organizational structure of enterprises. Thus, the combination of two or more enterprises into one (when combining production) leads to a decrease, and the division of enterprises (when specialization of production) leads to an increase in the value of these indicators. The value of commodity, gross, sold products does not depend on whether the enterprise itself extracts, produces raw materials, semi-finished products for the production of finished products or receives them from outside.

Commercial products of the enterprise are products produced in the reporting period and sold or intended for sale. In the composition of commercial products (T_etc.) include finished products (G_of); semi-finished products intended for distribution to third-party consumers (Pf); works of an industrial nature, carried out on orders from outside (R_etc.); all types of repair work carried out on orders from outside (R_slave); products of auxiliary workshops, made for sale to the side or for their own use (B). Thus, the volume of marketable products can be determined by the formula:

Т_etc. = G_of + P_ф + P_etc. + P_slave + V_ц

or

where A_i - products of the i-th type;

Ц_i - price of a unit of production of the i-th type;

Q_у - cost of services rendered.

The volume of marketable products is determined in the current (current) prices of the enterprise and is the basis for calculating taxes (VAT, excises, etc.). Marketable products are always determined excluding VAT and other special taxes.

Gross refers to all products manufactured by the enterprise for the reporting period, regardless of the degree of its readiness and purpose for use. Gross output (V_etc. ) can be determined by the formula:

В_etc. = T_etc. + (H_к - N_н),

where H_к - balance of work in progress at the end of the year, rub.;

Н_н - the same at the beginning of the year.

Remains of work in progress are determined according to accounting or inventory data. The normal value of work in progress at the end of the planning period must correspond to the production conditions of the subsequent period.

Marketable products are finished products intended for sale, handed over to the warehouse of finished products and documented before 24:8.00 on the last day of the month or until 1:XNUMX on the XNUMXst day of the month following the reporting period.

The volume of products sold in the planned period (Q_pn) can be determined by the formula:

Q_etc. = O_н + T_etc. - ABOUT_к,

where O_н, ABOUT_к - balances of finished products in stock at the beginning and end of the period under review (year, month, etc.);

Т_etc. - commercial production according to the plan.

In a market economy, special importance should be attached to the indicator "volume of products sold" under supply contracts, which determines the efficiency, expediency of the economic activity of the enterprise.

Sold products are finished products shipped to the buyer, for which funds are transferred to the supplier's settlement account. Measured in current prices.

In accordance with the Regulations on Accounting and Reporting in the Russian Federation, revenue from the sale of products can be determined in two ways.

1. As it is paid, funds are received in accounts at bank institutions, and when paying in cash - upon receipt of funds at the cash desk.

2. Upon shipment of goods and presentation of payment documents to the buyer (customer).

Each enterprise, when developing a reporting policy for the planning period, takes one of two options for accounting for revenue from product sales, based on business conditions and concluded contracts. The first option for recognizing sales revenue is currently the most common in the Russian economy. However, it reduces the reliability when calculating the production result: expenses (materials, salaries, etc.) are accrued in one reporting period, and the proceeds for shipped products very often come in another, which is explained by a general sharp decline in sales volumes, in other words, the company often works in a warehouse.

The second option for accounting for sales provides greater reliability in calculating the production result. However, the enterprise immediately becomes indebted for VAT, income tax in connection with the actual receipt of money, and it quickly becomes insolvent, financially bankrupt. Huge mutual debt, lack of financial discipline of customers, high level of monopolization lead to the fact that the level of use of the second option is insignificant. Most often it is used in transport, communications, and construction enterprises.

The implementation process completes the circulation of economic assets of the enterprise, which allows it to fulfill its obligations to the state budget, the bank for loans, workers and employees, suppliers and reimburse production costs. Failure to fulfill the implementation tasks causes a slowdown in the movement of working capital, delays payments, and worsens the financial position of the enterprise.

Indicators of gross, marketable and sold products do not fully characterize the final result of the enterprise. This is due to the fact that the volume of these products includes material costs, which have a large share. Therefore, to measure the company's own contribution to production, it is necessary to use indicators:

1) conditionally net production, which includes wage costs with accruals, depreciation and profit;

2) pure products. This is the part of the gross output corresponding to the newly created value, i.e., it is conditionally net production without depreciation;

3) normative pure production, which differs from pure in that it is formed on the basis of stable norms.

Important market indicators are indicators of product renewal. In accordance with its life cycle, each type of product reaches a certain period of marginal efficiency, and therefore a review of the assortment is periodically necessary.

The coefficient of product renewal characterizes the ratio of new and old products; it is used at many enterprises as an approved target indicator in the total volume of production. Especially widely used in foreign practice.

The production program of the enterprise should be developed in the following sequence:

1) the company conducts market research, determines the position of the product on the market, possible demand and sales volume;

2) on the basis of the possible sales volume, the volume of products sold is determined:

N_real = Q_Sales x C;

3) plan the volume of marketable products:

N_Comrade =N_real - (O_н - ABOUT_к);

4) determine the value of gross output:

N_shaft =N_Comrade + (H_к - N_н);

5) compare the possible volume of output with the available material, financial and other resources.

The business plan provides data on the volume of output of each type of product in natural units, as well as the planned values ​​of these indicators for the next 3-5 years.

For an existing business, production facilities are described, including production and administrative premises, warehouses and sites, special equipment, mechanisms and other production assets available at the enterprise.

The production plan must correspond to the capacity of enterprises - the volume or number of units of products (services, works) that can be produced in a certain period.

Under production capacity of the enterprise is understood as the maximum possible output of products in the nomenclature and assortment provided for by the sales plan, with full use of production equipment, space and taking into account progressive technology, advanced organization of labor and production.

The calculation of the production capacity of the enterprise is the most important stage in the justification of the production program. On the basis of production capacity calculations, internal production growth reserves are identified, output volumes are established, and the need to increase production capacity through technical re-equipment, reconstruction and expansion of existing and construction of new facilities is determined.

Production capacity planning is based on taking into account the factors on which its value depends. When calculating the power, the following factors are taken into account:

1) the structure and size of fixed production assets;

2) the qualitative composition of the equipment, the level of physical and obsolescence;

3) advanced technical standards for equipment productivity, space utilization, labor intensity of products, output of products from raw materials;

4) progressiveness of applied technological processes;

5) degree of specialization;

6) mode of operation of the enterprise;

7) the level of organization of production and labor;

8) equipment operating time fund;

9) the quality of raw materials and the rhythm of deliveries.

Production capacity is a variable value. Disposal of capacity occurs for the following reasons: depreciation and disposal of equipment, an increase in the labor intensity of manufacturing products, a change in the range and range of products, a decrease in the fund of operating time, the end of the equipment lease. These factors also work in the opposite direction.

The production capacity of the enterprise is determined by the capacity of the leading workshops, sections, production lines, machine tools (aggregates), taking into account measures to eliminate bottlenecks and possible production cooperation.

The calculation of production capacity includes all available equipment, including idle equipment due to malfunctions, repairs, and modernization. The equipment that is being installed and in warehouses, intended for commissioning in the planning period, is taken into account. When calculating the power, the equipment of auxiliary and maintenance shops is not considered.

The calculation of the production capacity of the enterprise should be carried out in the following sequence:

1) calculation of the production capacity of units and groups of process equipment;

2) calculation of the production capacity of production sites;

3) calculation of the production capacity of workshops (buildings, production);

4) calculation of the production capacity of the enterprise as a whole.

Two methods are used to calculate production capacity:

1) by equipment performance;

2) by the complexity of manufacturing products.

In continuous production, the capacity of units, sections and workshops is calculated, as a rule, according to the productivity of the equipment, and in discrete production - according to the labor intensity of manufacturing products.

Production capacity planning consists in performing a set of planned calculations that make it possible to determine:

1) input power;

2) output power;

3) indicators of the degree of power use.

The input power is determined by the available equipment installed at the beginning of the planning period.

Output capacity is the capacity at the end of the plan period, calculated based on the capacity input, retirement, and capacity input during the plan period.

Production planning is carried out on the basis of the average annual capacity (MC), calculated by the formula:

where M_н - production capacity at the beginning of the planning period;

М_у - increase in capacity due to organizational and other measures that do not require capital investments;

Ч₁,..., Ch₄ - respectively, the number of months of power operation;

М_р - increase in capacity due to technical re-equipment, expansion and reconstruction of the enterprise;

М_un - increase or decrease in capacity due to a change in the range and range of products, the receipt of industrial production assets from other enterprises and their transfer to other organizations, including leasing;

М_в - decrease in power due to its disposal due to dilapidation.

It is necessary to distinguish between actual and design capacity. Their compliance is characterized by the degree of development.

The degree of development of design capacities characterized by the following indicators:

1) the duration (term) of development;

2) the level of development of the design capacity;

3) the utilization rate of the capacities put into operation;

4) the volume of production during the development period;

5) achievement of design levels of cost, labor productivity and profitability.

The period (term) of the duration of the development of the design capacity of the enterprise or its part (workshop, section, unit) is understood as the time from the date of signing the acceptance certificate for operation until the sustainable output of the planned facility. The volume of production at facilities that are at the stage of development of design capacities should be determined taking into account this indicator. When planning this indicator, the time spent on preparing production for the release of new products at the facility being put into operation, commissioning and comprehensive testing of equipment should not be taken into account. The level of development is the percentage (coefficient) of development of the design capacity, which has been steadily achieved for a certain date. It is calculated as the ratio of output in a certain period (hour, day, month, year) to the corresponding (hourly, daily, monthly, annual) design capacity.

A balance of production capacities is being developed.

Based on the results of all calculations, a balance of production capacity is developed in order to more fully link the project of the production program and the production capacity of the enterprise. It reflects the input, output and average annual capacity, as well as the input and disposal of capacities. Based on the balance of production capacities and in the course of its development, the following is carried out:

1) clarification of the possibilities of the production program;

2) determination of the degree of provision with production capacities of the work program for the preparation of the production of new products;

3) determination of the coefficient of utilization of production capacities and fixed assets;

4) identification of intra-production imbalances and opportunities for their elimination;

5) determining the need for investments to increase capacity and eliminate bottlenecks;

6) determining the need for equipment or identifying excess equipment;

7) search for the most effective options for specialization and cooperation.

The balance of production capacity by type of product at the end of the planned year is calculated by summing up the capacity at the beginning of the year and its growth minus retirement.

The balance of production capacities is calculated for each type of core products according to the following structure.

Section 1. Power at the beginning of the planning period:

1) product name;

2) unit of measure;

3) product code;

4) capacity according to the project or calculation;

5) capacity at the end of the base year.

Section 2. Increase in capacity in the planned year:

1) increase in power, total;

2) including at the expense of:

a) commissioning new and expanding existing ones;

b) reconstruction;

c) rearmament and organizational and technical measures. Of them:

▪ by changing the operating mode, increasing the shift of working hours;

▪ by changing the product range and reducing labor intensity;

d) leasing, renting from other business entities.

Section 3. Power reduction in the planned year:

1) disposal of power, total;

2) including at the expense of:

a) changes in the range of products or an increase in labor intensity;

b) changing the mode of operation, reducing shifts, hours of work;

c) disposal due to dilapidation, depletion of stocks;

d) leasing, renting to other business entities.

Section 4. Power at the end of the planning period:

1) power at the end of the year;

2) average annual capacity in the planned year;

3) production output or the amount of processed raw materials in the planned year;

4) the utilization factor of the average annual capacity in the planned year.

Based on information about the existing need for production facilities, production facilities, the need for additional equipment and the total need for fixed assets and intangible assets are established. The calculation of the need for fixed assets is carried out according to the type of fixed assets based on performance standards.

Also, in terms of production, the norms of working capital are calculated using the direct account method. The latter provides for the calculation of the value of each element of working capital in the conditions of the achieved organizational and technical level of the enterprise, taking into account all the changes provided for in the development of technology, technology and organization of production.

The calculation of the need for working capital is carried out not only for newly created enterprises, but also, if necessary, a radical revision of existing working capital standards.

When normalizing working capital, it is necessary to take into account the dependence of the norms on the following factors:

1) the duration of the production cycle of manufacturing products;

2) consistency and clarity in the work of procurement, processing and producing shops;

3) supply conditions (duration of delivery intervals, sizes of delivered lots);

4) remoteness of suppliers from consumers;

5) the speed of transportation, the type and uninterrupted operation of transport;

6) the time of preparation of materials for their launch into production;

7) the frequency of launching materials into production;

8) conditions for the sale of products;

9) systems and forms of payment, the speed of workflow, the possibility of using factoring.

The norms developed at the enterprise for each element of working capital are valid for a number of years, and in case of significant changes in the conditions of production and marketing of products, they are specified taking them into account.

The following elements of working capital are normalized:

1) production stocks;

2) construction in progress;

3) deferred expenses;

4) finished products in the warehouse of the enterprise;

5) cash in cash in storage.

In all the above norms of working capital, one should take into account the need of the enterprise for funds not only for their core activities, but also for the production infrastructure.

For existing enterprises, the adjustment of the amount of working capital is carried out in the financial section of the business plan based on the use of the coefficient method of normalizing working capital (based on the growth rate of production and improving the use of working capital).

The section ends with calculations of production costs and the cost of production. The cost price can be determined for all products, for their individual types, assemblies, parts, production processes, for the work of departments, sections, workshops. All production costs are usually grouped according to certain individual characteristics. The main group of costs is usually attributed to the costs:

1) by economic elements. All costs are summarized in separate groups according to their economic homogeneity, regardless of the place of their spending and intended purpose. They are divided into:

a) material costs (the cost of raw materials and all materials minus return costs);

b) salary;

c) contributions for social needs;

d) depreciation charges;

e) other costs (repairs; payment of interest on loans, payments for emissions into the environment, intangible assets, advertising expenses, etc.);

2) by cost items. Costs that include one or more economic elements. Costing items take into account the purpose and place of their occurrence. It is called product costing.

The main costs are directly related to the production of products, and overhead costs are related to the maintenance and management of departments or production as a whole. The article includes one simple element. If it includes several economic elements, then it is considered complex.

The costs of the enterprise are also divided into fixed and variable. Fixed costs do not depend on the volume of products produced (rent for premises, lighting energy, heating, insurance premiums, administration salaries). The size of variable costs is proportional to the volume of output (raw materials, materials, power energy, wages).

Costs can be fixed or only variable with respect to their area of ​​relevance. A relevance area is an area in which costs follow a uniform pattern.

The "Production Plan" section is accompanied by a calculation of manufactured products and calculations for all items of the cost estimate for production.

Section highlights:

1) the presence or absence of the need to organize a new enterprise for the production of the proposed products;

2) the location of the firm based on proximity to the market, suppliers, availability of labor, transport, etc.;

3) production capacities that will be required and the planned dynamics of their commissioning in the future;

4) fixed assets necessary for the organization of production, and the dynamics of their changes in the future;

5) the need for material resources and production stocks;

6) possible difficulties in organizing production;

7) suppliers of raw materials, materials, semi-finished products and components. Purchase conditions;

8) planned industrial cooperation. Intended Members;

9) the presence of limiting the volume of production or supply of resources. Reasons for limiting and ways out of this situation;

10) the proposed production planning mechanism. The procedure for drawing up production plans and schedules;

11) scheme of production flows;

12) stages, methods and standards of quality control;

13) system of environmental protection and waste disposal;

14) production costs. The dynamics of their change;

15) availability of production facilities for expanding production and transition to new technologies;

16) characteristics of construction in progress;

17) new technologies planned for use in the production process;

18) organization of research and development work in the company;

19) the time required for the transition to the release of new types of goods;

20) features of preparation of production, stages and costs of its implementation;

21) characteristics of the scientific and technical level of production;

22) the degree of wear of the equipment;

23) policy and measures in the field of changing the production potential of the enterprise.

7. Drawing up an organizational plan

An important point from which you need to start this section of the business plan and which needs to be covered in detail is organizational structure of the enterprise.

The organizational structure is documented in graphic schemes, staffing tables, regulations on the divisions of the company's management apparatus, job descriptions of individual performers.

The main characteristics of the organizational structure are the number of management personnel by management functions, the number of line management personnel, the number of levels of the hierarchy of the enterprise management system, the number of structural links at each level, the degree of centralization of management.

When describing the organizational structure, it is necessary to clearly show what the management structure of the company is, who will do what, how all services will interact with each other, and how it is planned to coordinate and control their activities.

At the same time, it is necessary to emphasize the merits of the organizational structure of your organization and its compliance with the criteria of rationality, which can be called:

1) compliance of the volume of managerial work performed with the number of their performers;

2) concentration at each level of management (link) of objectively necessary functions and rights for their implementation;

3) lack of parallelism and duplication of functions;

4) the optimal combination of centralization and decentralization of functions and rights;

5) observance of the norms of manageability, i.e. the number of performers who go to one leader or coordinator of their activities;

6) the degree of reliability, efficiency, flexibility, adaptability, economy and efficiency of production and management;

7) the effectiveness of the proposed organizational structure.

A generalizing indicator for evaluating the effectiveness of the organizational structure is an integrated indicator of the effectiveness of the organizational structure (K_efu):

К_efu = 1- (Z_up x K_up) / (f₀ xf_в),

where Z_up - management costs per employee of the management apparatus;

К_up - share of the number of managerial employees in the total number;

f₀ - return on assets (the volume of manufactured (sold) products per unit of fixed and working capital);

f_в - capital-labor ratio (the cost of fixed and working capital per employee).

In a small business, the organizational structure must be formed for a specific team. It should be remembered that the work of the personnel will be successful only if the interests of production are consistent with the abilities and interests of the workers.

An essential factor in the promotion and implementation of the business plan is the management team. Potential investors and partners attach great importance to the management team, because the success or failure of your project largely depends on the experience and maturity of the management staff.

The business plan also notes the salary and additional remuneration of key management personnel. For the head of the enterprise, his share in the authorized capital is indicated.

Information is provided on the relationship between the number of administrative and managerial personnel and the number of workers in the firm.

Data are provided on the use of professional advisers, for example, in legal matters, banking, advertising, insurance, auditing, including the services of specialized organizations.

The business plan contains data on the required number and structure of personnel based on the needs of production. The calculation of the number of personnel required for high-quality and efficient production of products (services) is presented.

As you know, all employees of the enterprise are divided into industrial production personnel (PPP) - persons directly involved in production or its maintenance, and non-industrial personnel - persons not related to the production (production). In the calculations of the number and productivity of labor, only PPP is taken into account. The total number of PPP consists of the following categories of employees:

ч_IFR \uXNUMXd Workers + Engineering + Employees + MOS + Students + Security,

where Workers - persons directly affecting the object of labor, are divided into main and auxiliary;

ITR - engineering and technical workers involved in the organizational, economic and technical management of the enterprise;

Employees - employees who perform accounting, accounting or analytical work, involved in office work;

MOP - junior service personnel;

Apprentices - persons who are trained directly at the enterprise and are on its staff;

Security - all types of security.

According to the current GOST:

ч_IFR = Workers + Managers + Specialists + Employees.

The structure of the PPP is understood as the percentage composition of a certain category of workers in their total number.

d_i = (h_i /h_IFR) x100%,

where h_i - the number of the i-th group of workers.

When determining the number of employees, their direct and payroll numbers are calculated.

The actual number of workers is the number of workers necessary to carry out the production program.

The list number of employees is the number of employees hired by the enterprise and included in the personnel list (taking into account persons on business trips, vacations, performing state or public duties, absent due to illness, etc.).

The number of workers is calculated according to the payroll and attendance number, employees of all other categories - only according to the payroll.

The number of workers can be determined by three methods:

1) according to the norms of time:

where t_i - the complexity of manufacturing the i-th product in standard hours;

N_i - the number of i-th products according to the plan;

Т_eff^р - effective fund of time of one worker;

К_extra - coefficient of compliance with the norms;

2) for regular jobs:

where T_eff^about - effective equipment time fund;

R_i - the number of jobs for servicing the i-th type of equipment;

3) according to the standards of service:

ч_р = (Q_jobs / N₀) x S,

where H_о - service rate (the number of units that one person can serve);

S - number of shifts.

The number of scientific and technological revolutions is calculated on the basis of the planned number of workers and the accepted standards of manageability. The number of specialists and employees is determined on the basis of the staff list. The number of MOS is determined on the basis of service standards. The number of students is determined in accordance with the training plan. The number of guards is determined depending on the protected area, the number of posts, shift work, and the criminal situation. The total number of PPP is defined as the sum of the number of all categories of workers.

When planning the need for personnel, the following are taken into account:

1) prospects for the development of the labor market, a possible shortage or surplus of labor;

2) the cost of personnel training, the emergence of new specialties and professions;

3) the need for retraining of personnel.

It is indicated what measures are planned to be taken to staff the necessary qualifications. It also provides data on the system and forms of remuneration, additional payments, incentive measures used, ways to motivate labor activity, the mode of work in the company and the turnover of the workforce.

The personnel policy of the company is described separately. The projected personnel selection system for employment is evaluated: exams, interviews, tests, assessment of recommendations and reviews, establishment of a probationary period with summing up the results of its passage and methods of special training of enterprise personnel to the required level; the costs of training employees at various points in the project are indicated. The choice of the method and frequency of assessing the quality of the work of employees, the system of promotion of employees is carried out.

For newly created enterprises, as well as for the implementation of large-scale entrepreneurial projects and activities at an existing enterprise, a calendar plan (business schedule) is provided. It indicates the time and relationship of the main events that contribute to the implementation of the project and realizing its goals.

Availability in this section social development plan the team will be, among other things, a clear confirmation of the effectiveness and prospects of your company (provided that your plans in this regard are not an empty phrase, which must be confirmed by the facts of previous periods).

The plan for the social development of the collective of the enterprise is a scientifically based and financially secure system of measures aimed at the comprehensive and harmonious development of all members of the collective on the basis of progressive changes in the structure, living conditions of the labor collective, strengthening the social homogeneity of labor, and the most complete satisfaction of the material and spiritual needs of the members of the collective.

The following main sections are included in the enterprise social development plan.

1. Improving the social structure of the workforce. This section of the plan reflects the generalized social characteristics of the team, its specific features. This section provides for measures to improve the professional and qualification structure of an employee, reduce the number of workers engaged in manual, heavy physical and monotonous labor, as well as those employed in jobs with harmful working conditions, to improve the ratio between unskilled and skilled labor, which leads to an increase in the social homogeneity of labor . Here, measures are being developed to reduce staff turnover and their systematic movement within the enterprise, including those due to intra-professional or qualification, inter-professional and other types of movements.

The planning of changes in the social structure is based primarily on the planning of labor and personnel as a basic social process. A prerequisite for changes in the content and nature of labor is scientific and technological progress, the implementation of measures of which in the social aspect is aimed at increasing the content of labor, improving its social structure, erasing differences between social groups of workers and, thus, leads to the improvement of the social structure of the team.

2. Improvement of working conditions and health protection of employees of the enterprise. In this section, special attention is paid to measures to improve the working environment, which has a direct impact on health, performance, human life expectancy, mood, and the socio-psychological climate in the team.

3. Improving wages, improving housing and cultural conditions of the company's employees. This provides not only a general increase in the level of remuneration of workers, but also the establishment of the correct proportions in the level of wages of various categories of workers, the differentiation of the level of remuneration within the categories of workers, depending on the level of complexity and the final results of labor. Much attention is paid to strengthening the stimulating role of forms and systems of remuneration and bonuses, expanding the scope and quality of labor rationing.

4. Education of personality, increase of labor and social activity of workers and expansion of their participation in production management. The variety of levers of influence on the formation of the personality of an employee determines the variety of areas of this work. First of all, these are measures aimed at developing the social activity of workers and increasing their role in production management, its democratization; ideological and patriotic education, labor, economic, moral, legal. These types of education closely interact with each other. In addition, aesthetic education and cultural work, physical culture and sports, and physical education are distinguished.

The main task of this section of the plan is to determine the prospects for improving educational work, creating conditions for its high efficiency.

In this section of the business plan, you can also provide information on the legal aspects of the activity: information on registration, constituent documents, form of ownership, legislative restrictions, features of taxation, patent protection, etc. Government or local regulations relating to the activities of the enterprise are indicated, including access control in restricted areas, registration requirements with authorities, etc.

Section highlights:

1) the organizational chart of the company management, its structure;

2) the composition of subsidiaries and branches, their organizational relationship with the parent company;

3) composition of units and their functions;

4) provisions on structural subdivisions;

5) organization of coordination and interaction of services and departments of the company;

6) compliance of the organizational structure with the goals and strategy of the company;

7) the need for personnel by profession;

8) qualification requirements;

9) the form of involvement in labor (permanent work, part-time work, home work, etc.);

10) wages by profession;

11) the actual market supply of skilled and unskilled labor at the location of the firm;

12) types of special training and special conditions required for employees of the company;

13) the ratio between the number of main and auxiliary workers in the firm;

14) additional material benefits for employees of the company (insurance at the expense of the company, additional payment for the use of personal vehicles for official purposes, food subsidies, etc.) in comparison with other firms in the same geographical area and in the same industry;

15) the mode of work in the company and the turnover of the workforce;

16) a system of incentives for the main and auxiliary workers (for highly productive work, activities to improve the quality of work, etc.);

17) the degree of staff turnover;

18) the degree of discipline of personnel;

19) the ratio between the number of AUP and workers;

20) general information about executive employees and management personnel (age, education, tenure in this company, previous three positions and places of work, tenure in each position, ownership of company shares, functional duties, rights and powers, work experience, dignity and weaknesses, recommendations for self-improvement and advanced training, etc.);

21) a system of personal responsibility for the performance of work that directly affects the economic situation of the company;

22) a system for stimulating the work of managerial employees;

23) the presence of losses of leading specialists, reasons;

24) principles for selecting employees;

25) principles of recruitment (contract system, lifetime employment, probationary period, etc.);

26) creation of a system for planning professional training, advanced training and retraining of personnel;

27) choice of method and frequency of assessing the quality of work of employees;

28) the system of promotion of employees in the service;

29) social development planning.

8. Drawing up a financial plan

This section should be devoted to planning the financial support of the company's activities in order to make the most efficient use of available funds.

In general, the section should contain the following areas:

1) financial statements of the enterprise;

2) analysis of the financial and economic condition of the enterprise;

3) preparation of planning documents;

4) forecast of the financial strength of the project.

First of all, in this section it is necessary to analyze a set of documents characterizing financial and economic activities the firm in question. Financial documents of the last reporting period may be included in the "Financial plan" section itself or in the Annex to the business plan. It is desirable to bring financial reporting forms to the requirements of international standards.

At present, work is being actively carried out in Russia to bring the forms of accounting, statistical and banking reporting used closer to the forms used in international practice, therefore it is advisable to use the forms recommended by the International Committee on Accounting Standards in a business plan. In this regard, the accounting data should be brought to a form that provides the possibility of their use in the process of financial analysis based on methods that comply with international standards.

Planning and reporting documentation should be developed and presented in the form of a system:

1) operational plan (report);

2) plan (report) of income and expenses;

3) plan (report) of cash flow;

4) balance sheet (plan).

The operational plan (report) reflects for each period the results of interaction between the firm and its target markets for each product and market. The main indicators of the operational plan (report): the market potential of the company in units of this product, the price of the product, sales volume, the company's share in the industry market for this product, the number of goods in units produced by the company, stocks of this product in warehouses at the end of the reporting period.

This set of indicators is designed to give an idea to the company's management about the market share that the company has won for each product and which is expected to be won in the future period. This document should be developed by the marketing department.

The plan (report) of income and expenses for the production of goods shows whether the company will receive a profit from the sale of each of the goods. It usually includes the following indicators: revenue from the sale of this product, production costs for it, general production costs by item, taxes and deductions, net profit, profit remaining at the disposal of the company.

According to this plan (report), it is possible to establish whether a given product makes a profit for the company, it is possible to compare various products in terms of profitability in order to decide on the advisability of their further production. This document is developed by the economic service of the company for each of the goods.

The plan (report) of cash flow shows the process of receipts and expenditures of money in the course of the company's activities. Main indicators: revenue from the sale of goods, cash costs for the production and sale of goods, taxes, deductions, dividends, investments, purchases, interest costs, loan repayments, total cash costs, addition to the active part of the balance sheet. It is a direct result of planning. Developed by the financial department of the company.

The balance sheet summarizes the economic and financial activities of the company for the reporting period. It contains a complete list of assets and liabilities of the company. This document shows the net worth and liquidity of the firm. Lenders usually ask for a balance sheet. The latter is also required when filing a tax return. It is usually developed by the accounting department.

The specified planning and reporting documents reflect the planned and actual values ​​of indicators for the reporting period. The duration of the planning and reporting periods, depending on specific conditions, may vary within the limits: month, quarter, six months, year.

Next, you need to submit analysis of the financial and economic condition of the enterprise. This analysis, based on the use of reporting data, faces the need to adjust cost indicators to take into account the level of inflation.

In world practice, inflation-correcting revaluation of the analyzed objects is carried out either by fluctuations in exchange rates, or by fluctuations in price levels.

Revaluation of assets denominated in the national currency at the rate of a more stable currency is a very simple way (this is the main advantage). However, this method gives inaccurate results due to the fact that the exchange rate ratios of the ruble and the dollar do not coincide with their real purchasing power. Because of this, it is more accurate to overestimate the second method, which can be:

1) the method of accounting for changes in the general level;

2) the method of recalculating the items of the balance sheet asset into current prices.

The method of accounting for changes in the general level is that various items of financial objects are calculated in monetary units of financial purchasing power (without taking into account the structure of assets, all property is valued).

Based on the results of the adjustment, a profit indicator is displayed, which is the maximum amount of resources that can be directed by the enterprise for consumption over the next period without prejudice to the reproduction process.

The universal formula for converting balance sheet items into monetary units of the same purchasing power:

РВ = НВ/(I₁ -I₀),

where РВ is the real value of this article;

HB - nominal article;

I₁ - inflation index at the moment or for the period of analysis;

I₀ - inflation index in the base period or on the initial date of tracking the value of the item in the balance sheet.

The method of recalculating items is advisable to apply when prices for different groups of inventory items grow differently. This method allows you to reflect the varying degree of changes in the value of inventories, fixed assets, depreciation that occurred as a result of inflation. The essence of the method is the revaluation of all items based on their current value. As the current value, the cost of reproduction, the price of a possible sale (liquidation) or economic value is used.

Liquidation expresses the potential net current selling price of assets, less the costs of their completion and disposal.

Only so-called non-monetary items should be subject to inflationary adjustment: fixed assets (including intangible assets), inventories, work in progress, finished products, low-value and wearing items, obligations that must be repaid by the supply of certain goods and (or) the provision of services, etc. On the contrary, "money" items (cash, receivables and payables, credits, loans, deposits, financial investments, etc.), regardless of changes in the general price level, are not subject to inflationary adjustment. This is due to the fact that at each given moment they are already expressed in monetary units of current purchasing power. In the revalued financial statements, "monetary" items are included at par or at cost, and "non-monetary" items are included in the conditional valuation obtained as a result of the recalculation of historical costs.

The balance of assets and liabilities is achieved by regulating the item "Retained earnings".

Based on the technical, economic and financial performance of the enterprise over the past 3 years, an analysis of the financial and economic state of the enterprise is carried out.

The main purpose of financial analysis is to obtain a small number of key (most informative) parameters that give an objective and accurate picture of the financial condition of the enterprise, its profits and losses, changes in the structure of assets and liabilities, in settlements with debtors and creditors. At the same time, the analyst and the manager (manager) may be interested in both the current financial condition of the enterprise and its projection for the near or more distant future, i.e., the expected parameters of the financial condition. The results of the analysis allow interested persons and organizations to make management decisions based on an assessment of the current financial position and activities of the enterprise for previous years.

When assessing the financial and economic condition of an enterprise in a business plan, it is recommended to analyze the main technical and economic indicators of the enterprise and its financial condition.

The analysis must be carried out on the basis of the financial statements of the enterprise using a combination of technical, economic and financial indicators for the last 3 years.

Analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise includes the following main sections:

1) the structure of assets and liabilities;

2) analysis of property status;

3) financial stability;

4) analysis of the turnover of the company's funds;

5) return on equity and sales;

6) the effect of financial leverage;

7) the effect of production leverage;

8) determination of the form of economic growth of the enterprise.

For all these sections, a horizontal analysis of financial and economic indicators is carried out, i.e., indicators are compared for a number of analyzed quarters and years, and the dynamics of indicators over time is tracked. In each section, the growth rates of indicators and financial ratios for the last period are calculated.

The most important source of information for economic organizations should be their balance sheet with an explanatory note to it. Analysis of the balance sheet allows you to determine what funds the company has and what is the largest loan these funds provide. However, for a reasonable and comprehensive analysis of balance sheet information is not enough. This follows from the composition of the indicators. Balance analysis gives only a general judgment about solvency, while in order to draw conclusions about the degree of solvency, it is necessary to calculate qualitative indicators that assess the prospects for the development of enterprises and their viability. Therefore, as a source of information necessary for calculating creditworthiness indicators, one should use operational accounting data, information from statistical authorities, customer questionnaire data, supplier information, the results of processing survey data for special programs, and information from specialized valuation firms.

When working with a balance sheet asset, it is necessary to pay attention to the following: in the case of registration of a pledge of fixed assets (buildings, equipment, etc.), inventories, finished products, goods, other inventories and costs, the pledgor’s ownership of these values ​​must be confirmed by including their value in the composition of the relevant balance sheet items.

The balance of funds on the current account must correspond to the data of the bank statement as of the reporting date.

When analyzing receivables, it is necessary to pay attention to the terms of their repayment, since the receipt of debts can become one of the sources for the borrower to return the requested loan.

When considering the liability side of the balance sheet, the closest attention should be paid to studying the sections where loans and other borrowed funds are reflected: it is necessary to require loan agreements for those loans that are reflected in the balance sheet and outstanding at the date of the loan request, and make sure that it is not overdue. The presence of overdue debts on loans from other banks is a negative factor and indicates obvious miscalculations and disruptions in the borrower's activities, which, perhaps, are planned to be temporarily compensated with a loan.

An enterprise can be considered solvent if the amount of working capital significantly exceeds the amount of debt.

Solvency - this is the readiness of the enterprise to repay debts in the event of a simultaneous presentation of a demand for payments from all creditors of the enterprise. It is clear that we are talking only about short-term borrowed funds - for long-term loans, the repayment period is known in advance and does not apply to this period.

Solvency is the availability of funds at the enterprise sufficient to pay debts for all short-term obligations and at the same time uninterrupted implementation of the production process and product sales. The indicator characterizing the level of solvency is the ratio of liquid working capital to the amount of short-term debt. Liquid current assets include the data of sections II and III of the enterprise's balance sheet net of deferred expenses and other assets, since funds under these two items cannot be converted into money to pay off debts.

The numerator of this indicator should significantly exceed the denominator. Accordingly, the level of the indicator should be significantly higher than one. A qualitative assessment of the solvency indicator level at each enterprise should be quantified.

In financial theory, there are approximate standards for this indicator, which is called the total coverage ratio.

In 1990 - 1991 it was believed that it should not be lower than 2 - 2,5. At present, in conditions of instability in the economy, its minimum value is estimated higher - 3 - 4. However, it is instability that makes it impossible to normalize this indicator in general. It should be estimated for each specific enterprise according to its balance sheet data. For such an assessment, it is necessary to determine how much working capital should remain at the disposal of the enterprise after the repayment of current debt obligations for other needs - the uninterrupted conduct of the production process, the repayment of long-term obligations, etc. In addition, it should be noted that when determining the overall coverage ratio, in the calculation of the source of repayment of short-term liabilities for all receivables. But among the debtors there are also insolvent buyers and customers who, for various reasons, will not pay for the products of this enterprise. All these circumstances determine how much higher the total coverage ratio should be.

If we formalize what has been said, then it will look like this:

K = (K_р +M_n + D_б)/ TO_р = [1+(M_n + D_б)]/TO_р,

where K is the total coverage ratio;

М_п - material resources necessary for the smooth conduct of the production process;

Д_б - uncollectible receivables;

К_р - the amount of short-term debt of all kinds.

The status of working capital is reflected in the following indicators:

1) security of material reserves with own working capital;

2) the coefficient of maneuverability of own funds.

The condition of fixed assets is measured:

1) the coefficient of long-term attraction of borrowed funds;

2) wear accumulation coefficient;

3) the coefficient of the real value of the property.

In addition, two more indicators reflect the degree of financial independence of the enterprise as a whole:

1) coefficient of autonomy;

2) the ratio of borrowed and own funds.

Despite the large number of meters, all of them can be systematized.

The security of inventories with own working capital is the quotient of dividing own working capital by the amount of inventories, that is, an indicator of the extent to which inventories are covered by own working capital. The level of the indicator is estimated primarily depending on the state of inventories. If their value is much higher than the reasonable need, then own working capital can cover only a part of inventories, i.e., the indicator will be less than one. On the contrary, if the enterprise does not have enough material reserves for the uninterrupted implementation of production activities, the indicator may be higher than one, but this will not be a sign of a good financial condition of the enterprise.

The coefficient of maneuverability of own funds shows how mobile the own sources of funds of the enterprise are, and is calculated by dividing the own working capital by all sources of the enterprise's own funds. It depends on the nature of the enterprise's activity: in capital-intensive industries, its normal level should be lower than in material-intensive ones.

The numerator of both indicators is own working capital, therefore, in general, the improvement in the state of working capital depends on the outstripping growth of the amount of own working capital compared to the growth of inventories and own sources of funds.

An assessment of the financial stability of an enterprise would be one-sided if its only criterion was the mobility of its own funds. No less important is the financial assessment of the production potential of the enterprise, that is, the state of its fixed assets.

Permanent asset index - the ratio of fixed assets and non-current assets to equity (or the share of fixed assets and non-current assets in the sources of equity). If the company does not use long-term loans and borrowings, then adding the coefficient of maneuverability of own funds and the permanent asset index will always give one. Own sources cover both fixed and current assets of the enterprise, therefore the sum of fixed assets, non-current assets and own current assets in the absence of long-term borrowed funds in the sources is equal to the value of own funds. Under these conditions, an increase in the maneuverability coefficient is possible only by reducing the fixed asset index, and vice versa.

This situation exists practically if the enterprise does not use long-term loans and loans for capital investments. As soon as long-term borrowed funds appear in the composition of the sources of funds, the situation changes: it is possible to achieve an increase in both coefficients.

К_м+K_n = 1+(D_к/FROM_с)

where D_к - the amount of a long-term loan.

Ratio (D_к/FROM_с), within which the agility ratio grows without a decrease in the fixed asset index, is also a measure of financial stability in terms of assessing fixed assets. It is called the long-term leverage ratio.

Its significance lies not only in the fact that it increases the coefficient of maneuverability of own funds. In addition, he assesses how intensively the company uses borrowed funds to upgrade and expand production.

The intensity of the formation of another source of funds for capital investments is determined by another indicator of financial stability - the depreciation accumulation coefficient. This ratio is calculated as the ratio of the accrued amount of depreciation and the original book value of fixed assets. It measures the extent to which the replacement and renewal of fixed assets are financed by depreciation.

A very important indicator of financial stability is the ratio of the real value of the property. It determines what proportion of the value of property is the means of production. This coefficient is most interesting for enterprises manufacturing products. The coefficient is calculated by dividing the total value of fixed assets, inventories, work in progress and low-value and wearing items by the value of the company's assets. In essence, this coefficient determines the level of the production potential of the enterprise, the availability of the production process with the means of production.

The ratio of borrowed and own funds, as the name implies, is the result of dividing the amount of borrowed funds by the amount of own funds. The meaning of both indicators is very close. More clearly, the degree of dependence of the enterprise on borrowed funds is expressed in the ratio of borrowed and own funds. It shows what funds the company has more - borrowed or own. The more the coefficient exceeds one, the greater the dependence of the enterprise on borrowed funds. The permissible level of dependence is determined by the operating conditions of each enterprise and, first of all, by the speed of turnover of working capital. Calculating it as of any date is not sufficient to assess the financial condition of the enterprise. It is necessary, in addition to calculating the coefficient, to determine the rate of turnover of inventories and receivables for the analyzed period. If receivables turn over faster than material working capital, this means a rather high intensity of cash receipts to the company's accounts, i.e., as a result, an increase in the company's own funds. Therefore, at a high rate of turnover of material working capital and an even higher rate of turnover of receivables, the ratio of borrowed and own funds can significantly exceed one.

In addition, when assessing the level of this coefficient that is normal for an enterprise, it is necessary to compare it with the coefficient of provision of stocks with own working capital discussed above. If the latter is high, i.e., inventories are covered mainly by own sources, then borrowed funds cover mainly receivables. The condition for reducing borrowed funds in this case is the return of receivables to the enterprise.

At the same time, the security ratio is, as a rule, low at enterprises where material resources occupy a large share in the property structure, i.e., not the most mobile part of the property.

However, narrowing down the problem, investors are directly interested in indicators that affect the return on capital of the enterprise, the share price and the level of dividends.

Profitability (profitability) of capital is defined as the percentage of the enterprise's balance sheet profit to the value of its assets. This is the most general indicator that answers the question of how much profit an enterprise receives per ruble of its property. Other things being equal, the amount of dividends per share depends on its level.

In the indicator of return on capital, the result of the current activity of a given period (balance sheet profit) is compared with the company's fixed and current assets (assets). With the help of the same assets, the company will make a profit in subsequent periods of activity. Profit is a direct result mainly from the sale of products, that is, it depends on the volume.

Volume of sales - an indicator directly related to the value of assets: it consists of the natural volume and prices of products sold, and the natural volume of production and sales is determined by the value of the enterprise's property.

Return on assets - an indicator derived from the proceeds from the sale attributable to the ruble of their value.

Therefore, although the indicator of return on assets is important from the point of view of investment attractiveness, it should be considered as the product of the profitability of sales and the turnover of assets (sales proceeds divided by the average value of assets for the analyzed period):

P/A = (P/R) x (P/A)

where P - balance sheet profit;

A - the average value of assets for the analyzed period;

R - proceeds from the sale of products.

Return on equity can increase with unchanged profitability of sales and sales growth, outpacing the increase in the value of assets, ie, the acceleration of asset turnover. Conversely, with a constant asset turnover, the return on equity can grow due to an increase in the profitability of sales.

Does it matter for the assessment of investment attractiveness, due to what factors does the return on capital increase or decrease? Certainly it has. Different enterprises have different opportunities to increase the profitability of sales and increase sales.

If the company's products are in high enough demand, for some time the profitability of sales can be increased by raising prices. However, this is always a temporary factor. The second way to increase the profitability of sales is to reduce the cost of production. To do this, it is necessary that the prices of material resources and funds for wages grow more slowly than the prices of products sold. This factor is also hardly reliable enough in the current conditions.

The most consistent policy of the enterprise, which meets the goals of increasing its investment attractiveness, is to increase the volume of production and sales of products that are in demand for a more or less long term. In other words, to increase the production of those products, the need for which is determined by improving the market situation.

When analyzing the return on capital, of course, one must take into account the role of its individual elements both in assets and in sources of funds. But dependence, in our opinion, should be built not through the turnover of elements, but through an assessment of the structure of capital in conjunction with the dynamics of its turnover and profitability.

The effect of financial leverage is an increase in the profitability of own funds obtained through a paid loan.

Net return on equity (RCA) can be defined as the ratio of net profit (NP) to equity (MA):

PCS = CHP / SS

The same RCC value can be represented as a sum:

RCC = PC + EGF,

where RS is the return on all capital (debt and equity) excluding loan servicing payments, or net economic profitability (including income tax);

EFR - the effect of financial leverage, equal to the product of leverage (Pl) and differential (D):

EGF = Pl x D.

In this case, the leverage of the financial leverage will be found as the ratio of the borrowed capital (LC) of the company to equity capital (CK):

Pl \uXNUMXd ZK / SK,

and differential as:

D = (RS - SRSP) x (1 - NP),

where SIRR is the average calculated interest rate on loans;

NP - income tax, i.e. the difference between economic profitability and the average calculated interest rate on loans.

If new borrowing brings an increase in EGF, then it is profitable. To calculate the magnitude of the effect of financial leverage, you must enter a number of parameters:

1) the standard for attributing interest on loans to the cost price based on the period under consideration (for example, a quarter);

2) the average calculated interest rate on loans. Calculated under the terms of specific loan agreements as follows:

SRSP = F_fi /FROM_kz

where f_fi - all actual financial costs for all loans for the analyzed period;

С_kz - the total amount of credits and loans.

It should be noted that in these calculations accounts payable are excluded from the amount of borrowed funds. The amount of the total capital is reduced by the same amount. When solving issues related to obtaining (and providing) loans on certain conditions, using the formula for the magnitude of the effect of financial leverage, it is necessary to exclude accounts payable from all calculations.

The following values ​​are calculated sequentially:

1) profitability of all capital;

2) financial leverage. An increase in the leverage of financial leverage, on the one hand, increases the value of the EFR, on the other hand, with a large leverage (Pl >

2) the lender’s risk increases, which may lead to an increase in the interest rate on loans, and this will reduce the value of the differential. Thus, the leverage must be adjusted depending on the average interest rate on loans;

3) differential, which is the difference between the economic profitability of all capital and the average calculated interest rate on loans. Note that the creditor's risk is expressed precisely by the magnitude of the differential: the larger the differential, the lower the risk, and vice versa. The differential value must not be negative. The negative value of the differential means that the company incurs losses from the use of borrowed funds;

4) return on equity (RCA) and the share of the effect of financial leverage in the return on equity.

In foreign practice, the golden mean is considered to be the value of EFR / RSS = 0,25 - 0,35, which allows compensating for tax withdrawals of profits;

5) calculation of the ratio of economic profitability to the average interest rate. The larger this value, the better. When this value approaches one, the value of the differential tends to zero, which means a drop in the efficiency of using borrowed funds.

The production leverage effect (EPR) shows the degree of sensitivity of profit from sales to changes in sales proceeds. The value of EPR increases extremely when the volume of production falls and approaches the threshold of profitability, at which the enterprise operates without profit, i.e., under these conditions, a small increase in sales proceeds generates a multiple increase in profit, and vice versa. The effect of the production lever is determined by the formula:

EPR = RR_pz / P

where RR_pz - the result of the implementation after reimbursement of variable costs;

P - profit.

The value of the effect of production leverage is always calculated for a certain volume of sales and sales proceeds and a certain share of variable costs in total costs. The share of variable costs in total costs is calculated according to internal accounting data. Then the indicator of the strength of financial leverage is calculated:

SER \uXNUMXd (BP + PC) / EPR,

where BP - balance sheet profit;

PC - interest on a loan.

Next, the coupled effect of leverage is calculated:

SER = SFR x EPR.

The main sources of risk for the enterprise are production and financial risks. The instability of demand and prices for raw materials, the share of fixed costs, the level of EPR generate entrepreneurial risk. The more EPR, the greater the entrepreneurial risk. The instability of credit conditions, the action of financial leverage generate financial risk. The level of cumulative risk is proportional to the conjugate effect of leverage.

The combination of high financial leverage and high EPR can be detrimental to an enterprise. These considerations are crucial in determining potential earnings per share. The conjugate effect of leverage measures the percentage change in earnings per share for a 1% change in sales.

Giving a general assessment of the activities of the enterprise, it is possible to determine the formula for economic growth (I_screen) by comparing extensive and intensive factors:

where I_Fri - labor productivity index;

I_f0 - index of capital productivity;

I_n - population index;

I_of - index of fixed assets.

If I_screen > 1, then the enterprise developed mainly due to intensive factors. At I_screen < 1 its growth is characterized as extensive.

The analysis should determine the type of financial stability of the enterprise.

To link the size of the main sources of inventory formation with the level of financial stability of an enterprise, a digital state function is used:

S = f(x₁,x₂,x₃),

where x₁ - an absolute indicator of the provision of material and production costs with own working capital;

х₂ - an absolute indicator of the provision of material and production costs with such sources for their formation as own working capital, own working capital and long-term borrowed funds;

х₃ - an absolute indicator of the security of material and production costs with the main sources for their formation, respectively, with own working capital, own working capital and long-term borrowed funds, general funds (own working capital, long-term borrowed funds, short-term loans and borrowings).

If the security indicator is greater than zero, then x_j taken equal to one, otherwise x_j = 0.

There are the following types of financial stability of the enterprise:

1) S = f (1, 1, 1) - absolute financial stability;

2) S = f (0, 1, 1) - normal financial stability;

3) S = f (0, 0, 1) - unstable financial condition;

4) S = f (0, 0, 0) - financial crisis.

For an enterprise that has an unstable financial position, the probability of its potential bankruptcy should be assessed. Two main approaches can be used for this:

1) multifactorial model of E. Altman;

2) forecasting solvency indicators. On the basis of studies conducted by E. Altman in the 1960s, five indicators were identified on which the probability of bankruptcy depends to the greatest extent, and their weighting coefficients were determined. As a result, a five-factor model was obtained that makes it possible to calculate the integral indicator of the probability of a potential bankruptcy of a company, the so-called Z-score, which reflects financial stability:

Z = 1,2K₁ + 1,4K₂ + 0,6 K₃ + 3,3K₄ + 1,0K₅,

where K₁ = Own working capital / Sum of all assets;

К₂ = Retained earnings / Sum of all assets;

К₃ = Market value of ordinary and preferred shares / Amount of borrowed funds;

К₄ = Gross profit / Sum of all assets;

К₅ = Net sales proceeds / Sum of all assets.

Depending on the value of the Z-score, the probability of bankruptcy of the company is determined:

1) very high - up to 1,8;

2) high - 1,81 - 2,7;

3) possible - 2,71 - 3,0;

4) very low - more than 3,0.

Using this model, bankruptcy can be predicted for 1 year with an accuracy of up to 90, for 2 years - up to 70%, and for 3 years - 50%.

At present, a computer version of E. Altman, adapted to Russian conditions, has been developed and is widely used.

In the second approach, the assessment of the probability of a potential bankruptcy of a company is based on a system of criteria approved by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation "On some measures to implement the legislation on insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises" dated May 20, 1994. The assessment is based on the following coefficients: coverage (Kp), security own working capital (K_axis), recovery (loss (K_у), solvency (K_в).

The basis for recognizing the structure of the balance sheet as unsatisfactory, and the enterprise as insolvent is the fulfillment of one of the following conditions:_п < 2 or K_axis <0,1.

If the coverage ratio is below the standard, and the share of own working capital in the formation of current assets is less than 0,1 (standard), but there is a tendency for these indicators to grow, the solvency recovery ratio is calculated for a period equal to 6 months:

where K_p1 and K_p0 - respectively, the actual value of the coverage ratio at the end and beginning of the reporting period;

К_p(norms) - normative value of the coverage ratio;

T - reporting period, months.

If K_в > 1, then the enterprise has a real opportunity to restore its solvency, and vice versa, if K_в < 1, the enterprise has no real opportunity to restore its solvency in the near future.

In the event that the actual level of the coverage ratio and the ratio of own working capital is equal to or higher than the standard values ​​at the end of the period, but there is a tendency to reduce them, calculate the coefficient of loss of solvency (K) for a period equal to 3 months:

If K > 1 here, the enterprise has a real opportunity to maintain its solvency for 3 months, and vice versa.

Conclusions about the recognition of the balance sheet structure as unsatisfactory, and enterprises as insolvent are made with a negative balance sheet structure and the absence of a real opportunity to restore their solvency.

The final comprehensive assessment takes into account all the most important parameters (indicators) of the financial, economic and production activities of the enterprise, i.e. economic activity in general. The algorithm for obtaining a comprehensive assessment includes the sequence of the following actions:

1) formation of a matrix of initial data (X_ij), i.e., a table in which financial indicators are written in rows (i = 1, n), in columns - the analyzed periods (i = 1, m), quantitative estimates of indicators are put down at the intersection of rows and columns;

2) the optimal value of each financial indicator is entered in the last column of the table;

3) formation of a matrix of standardized coefficients. Initial indicators of the matrix (X_ij) are standardized in relation to the corresponding optimal indicator according to the formula:

t_ij = X_ij / X_iop

where t_ij - standardized coefficients of the j-th period;

X_ij - indicators of the j-th period;

X_iop - optimal performance.

4) for each period, the value of the integrated rating score is determined by the formula:

where R_j. - complex rating assessment of the j-th period.

An analysis of the data in the table shows that the financial and economic condition of the enterprise is deteriorating, since the complex assessment is farther and farther away from the optimal (1,797 > 1,767 > 1,653 > 0).

The next important step is preparation of planning documents. In a business plan, it is advisable to present planning documents in a form similar to reporting ones, and it is desirable that the structure of these documents comply with the requirements of international standards.

The forecast of profits and losses, as well as cash flows, is presented in the business plan, as a rule, for the first planned year on a monthly basis (or quarterly), for the second - quarterly (or semi-annually), for the third and further - as a whole for the year. The forecast balance of assets and liabilities of the enterprise is compiled at the end of each year of the planning period.

In the business plan, it is mandatory to submit planning documents in forecast prices, i.e. in prices expressed in monetary units corresponding to the purchasing power of each period of the project. The forecast prices include the forecast inflation rate.

The forecast of profits and losses reflects the operating activities of the company in the target period. The purpose of this forecast is to present in a generalized form the results of the enterprise in terms of profitability. The profit and loss forecast shows how profit will be formed and changed, and, in essence, is a forecast of financial results. The business plan should present all types of taxation.

In the profit and loss forecast, all values ​​are given without VAT, payments for sales and direct costs are shown at the time of delivery of the products.

The forecast balance characterizes the financial position of the enterprise at the end of the calculated period of time and reflects the resources of the enterprise in a single monetary value in terms of their composition and directions of use, on the one hand (asset), and according to the sources of their financing, on the other hand (liability). When compiling a balance sheet forecast, the acquisitions of fixed assets, changes in the value of inventories, caused, for example, by an increase in sales, etc. are taken into account. In the Liabilities section, planned loans, share issues, etc. are noted.

The cash flow forecast contains information that supplements the data of the forecast balance sheet and profit and loss forecast in terms of determining the cash inflow necessary to carry out the planned volume of financial and business operations. All receipts and payments are recorded in the time periods corresponding to the actual dates of their payments, taking into account the delay in payment for sold products (services), the delay in payments and delivery of materials and components, the conditions for selling products (on credit, with advance payments), and as well as the conditions for the formation of inventories.

The cash flow forecast does not include depreciation, although the depreciation charge is an accrual expense but does not represent a monetary liability. In fact, the accrued depreciation amount remains on the company's account, replenishing the balance of liquid funds. All values ​​in the forecast are shown inclusive of VAT, payments for sales and direct costs are displayed at the time of actual payments.

According to the three most important areas of the enterprise - operating (or production), investment and financial - the cash flow forecast consists of three sections:

1) cash flow from the current main (production) activity;

2) cash flow from investment activities;

3) cash flow from financial activities.

The main source of cash from the main activities of the enterprise are cash received from buyers and customers. Cash is used for the purchase and placement of inventories, production, sale of finished products, payment of money to suppliers, payment of wages and taxes, fines, etc. Production activities, as a rule, are the main source of profit for the enterprise, and positive flows the cash generated as a result of these activities can be used to expand production, pay dividends or repay a bank loan, that is, in the other two areas.

In the area of ​​investment activities, cash flows are concentrated from the acquisition and sale of fixed assets, intangible assets, securities and other long-term financial investments, the receipt and payment of interest on loans, the resale of own shares, etc.

For an operating enterprise, it should be taken into account that the cash flows received are the result of the functioning of not only newly acquired assets, but also all previously invested investment resources, the value of which is taken equal to the book value of the assets owned by the enterprise at the date of the project start. This is reflected in the cash flow model as a contingent purchase of related funds.

The cost of acquiring assets in future operating periods must be adjusted for inflation on fixed assets.

As income from financial activities, contributions from the owners of the enterprise, equity capital, long-term and short-term loans, interest on deposits, positive exchange differences are taken into account, as payments - repayment of loans, dividends, etc. Financial activities at the enterprise are carried out in order to increase its cash funds and serves to provide financial support for production and economic activities.

The amount of cash flow (cash balance) of each section of the "Cash Flow Forecast" will be the balance of liquid funds in the relevant period. In this case, the cash balance at the end of the settlement period will be equal to the amount of liquid funds of the current period of time.

The balance of funds in the account (cash balance) is used by the enterprise for payments, ensuring the production activities of subsequent periods, investments, repayment of loans, payment of taxes and personal consumption.

It should be noted that the cash balance at the end of the period should not be negative in any period of the project, since a negative value indicates a project budget deficit or, in other words, insufficient funds in the accounts and cash of the enterprise.

Therefore, the main task of the cash flow forecast is to check the synchronism of the receipt and expenditure of funds, and therefore, to check the future liquidity of the enterprise.

The cash flow forecast is the main document designed to determine the need for capital, develop an enterprise financing strategy, and evaluate the effectiveness of its use.

If the enterprise makes settlements not only in rubles, but also in foreign currency, financial and economic indicators should be calculated separately in rubles and in foreign currency. Total estimates are also given in rubles, while the forecast of exchange rates should be taken into account.

Thus, the business plan presents three cash flow forecasts: a forecast for financial transactions in foreign currency, in rubles, and a summary forecast of all financial transactions in rubles.

In the business plan, the critical sales volume (break-even point or profitability threshold) and the financial strength of the enterprise are determined graphically or analytically.

Critical sales volume (V_etc.) can be calculated using the following formula:

V_etc. = C_post /(1-U_per)

where C_post - semi-fixed costs;

U_per - the share of conditionally variable costs in the volume of sales, unit share.

The financial safety margin is defined as the difference between the planned revenue and the critical sales volume and reflects the amount to which it is possible to reduce the volume of production or the price of products so that production does not turn out to be unprofitable. The calculation is usually illustrated by building a break-even chart. To build a break-even chart, an equation of the following form is drawn up:

V = C x X,

where V is the proceeds from the sale of products, rubles;

C - the price of a unit of production without VAT, rub.

And also:

C = C_upost + C_{put up} x X,

where C is the total cost of production, rubles;

X - the planned volume of sales of products, pieces;

С_upost - the amount of conditionally fixed costs, rub.;

С_{put up} - the amount of conditionally variable costs per unit of output, rub.

It should be emphasized that if an enterprise plans to produce several types of products, the calculation results will be valid only for the planned sales structure. When the structure changes, the calculations need to be adjusted.

The company also determines marginal income - the difference between sales revenue and variable costs. It allows you to determine the share of each product in the formation of the profit of the enterprise.

Thus, in this section of the business plan, it is necessary to present a set of planning and reporting documents, as well as to analyze the main financial indicators that characterize the efficiency of the company's production and economic activities.

Section highlights:

1) the financial statements of the enterprise (operational plan or report, plan or report of income and expenses, plan or statement of cash flows, balance sheet or plan);

2) funds available to the enterprise;

3) potential sources of financing of the proposed business and areas of investment of the funds provided;

4) used sources of financing of the proposed business;

5) analysis of the financial and economic condition of the enterprise;

6) inflation-correcting revaluation;

7) the structure of assets and liabilities, their dynamics by years;

8) analysis of property status;

9) financial stability;

10) analysis of the turnover of the company's funds;

11) return on equity and sales;

12) the effect of financial leverage;

13) the effect of production leverage;

14) determination of the form of economic growth of the enterprise;

15) horizontal analysis of financial and economic indicators;

16) total coverage ratio;

17) the state of working capital;

18) condition of fixed assets;

19) the degree of financial independence of the enterprise;

20) profitability (profitability) of capital;

21) assessment of current and prospective economic growth;

22) assessment of the probability of potential bankruptcy;

23) preparation of planning documents;

24) profit and loss forecast, as well as cash flow;

25) assessment of the synchronism of the receipt and expenditure of funds;

26) the existing need for attracted funds;

27) property provided against loan security or other guarantees for creditors and investors;

28) terms of crediting and terms of credit repayment;

29) return on invested capital guaranteed for the investor;

30) the amount of forecasted net profit by years;

31) critical sales volume (break-even point or profitability threshold);

32) forecast of the financial strength of the project.

Author: Beketova O.N.

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