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Predicting major solar flares

21.08.2020

Solar flares emit sudden, strong bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun's surface and atmosphere, and eject plasma and energetic particles into interplanetary space. Since large solar flares can cause severe space weather disturbances that affect the Earth, their occurrence must be predicted to mitigate their impact. However, since the mechanism by which solar flares occur is unclear, most flare prediction methods so far have been based on empirical methods.

A research team at the Institute for Space Studies of the Earth's Environment at Nagoya University has succeeded in developing the first physical model that can accurately predict impending major solar flares.

The new flare prediction method, called the kappa scheme, is based on the theory of "two-arc instability", that is, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instability caused by magnetic reconnection. The researchers hypothesized that a small-scale reconnection of magnetic field lines could form a double arc (m-shaped) magnetic field and trigger a solar flare. The kappa scheme can predict how a small magnetic reconnection causes a large flare and how a large solar flare can occur.

The predictive model was tested on approximately 200 active regions during solar cycle 24 from 2008 to 2019 using data from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. With few exceptions, the kappa pattern has been shown to predict the most imminent solar flares, as well as the exact location from which they will appear.

The researchers also found that a new parameter - "magnetic swirling flux density" close to the magnetic polarity reversal line on the Sun's surface - determines when and where solar flares can occur and how big they can be.

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