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Renewable energy may not be enough for everyone

17.03.2018

A number of models predict a huge role that renewable energy sources will play as early as 2050, but some of them may be overly optimistic and should be used with caution, the researchers say.

In the UK, the share of energy supplied by renewable sources is increasing every year. In 2017, for example, solar, bio- and hydro sources combined produced as much energy as the entire UK needed in 1958.

However, how large this proportion will be in 2050 is a big question. Researchers at Imperial College London insist that future energy decisions should be used with caution and not rely on overly optimistic models that predict the entire system could be powered by renewable electricity by the middle of this century.

Scientists note that all forecasts of a full transition to renewable electricity by 2050 are erroneous, as they do not accurately reflect the reliability of the energy source.

Using data from the UK, the team tested a model in which the country only relied on wind, solar and water power. They found that a lack of reliable back-up power systems—for example, nuclear or carbon-capturing power plants—causes the system to fail so frequently that it can effectively be considered inefficient.

Moreover, scientists have found that even if 77% of energy is left to renewable sources, about 9% of the UK's annual energy needs will remain unmet, which will lead to significant power outages and economic damage.

Clara Heberger, lead author of the study, says: "Mathematical models that ignore usability issues can mislead the public and decision makers. Such models are more likely to delay a real transition to a low-carbon economy."

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