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Vegetarianism could save millions of lives

27.03.2016

Marco Springmann of Oxford University and his colleagues found that a global shift to vegetarianism could prevent 5 to 8 million deaths annually by 2050, which is 6-10% of the total mortality of the world's population. Reducing meat consumption will also reduce the production of greenhouse gases, scientists say.

Scientists analyzed eating habits and diets in 105 regions of the world and found that less than a third of them are on track to meet the WHO dietary recommendations. The expected growth of the population and the consumption of low-quality products may lead to the fact that by 2050 half of the budget aimed at combating the consequences of harmful emissions may be occupied by the elimination of the effects of greenhouse pollution and the curbing of global warming.

To see how dietary changes might change such a scenario, the scientists built four alternative nutritional programs and analyzed their impact on human health and the environment: 1) a baseline program based on forecasts for 2050; 2) a scenario based on WHO recommendations that includes the required minimum of fruits and vegetables, and also limits the consumption of red meat, sugar and total calories; and two vegetarian scenarios, one with eggs and dairy ("lactose-vegetarian") and one entirely plant-based ("vegan").

Following the WHO universal dietary recommendations could prevent up to 5,1 million deaths per year by 2050, and in the case of a universal transition to vegetarianism and veganism, from 7,3 to 8.1 million deaths, respectively. About half of that result would be due to a reduction in red meat consumption. The other half would come from an increase in the proportion of fruits and vegetables, as well as a decrease in the total caloric intake, which would reduce the problems associated with obesity. In addition, compliance with WHO recommendations would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29% (however, this is not enough to curb global warming).

The greatest benefit (in terms of the number of lives saved) from such a transition would be received by the countries of Southeast Asia, primarily China. Russia and other countries in Eastern Europe would also benefit greatly from reducing red meat consumption.

In order to seriously combat negative climate change, it is necessary to increase the share of consumption of plant foods. The analysis shows that if the entire population of the world adopts a vegetarian diet, then diet-related emissions will be reduced by 63%, and in the case of global veganism, by as much as 70%.

Changes in nutrition and the transition to vegetarianism would have huge economic benefits, comparable to savings of $ 700-1000 billion a year worldwide. This figure is made up of an estimate of the cost of medical services, payment of sick leaves and lost working time.

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