The northern hemisphere is in for the hottest summer in 600 years. Free Technical Library News

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The northern hemisphere is facing the hottest summer in 600 years

20.04.2013

According to a study by Harvard scientists, now in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere of the Earth is much warmer than in the previous 6 centuries.

To understand current climate trends, scientists have developed a statistical model of Arctic temperature and how it relates to characteristics of samples taken from trees, ice and lake sediments. Research has shown that the warmest summer months over the past two decades are breaking all records and are unprecedented in the last six centuries.

These data are based on the best reconstruction of 600 years of temperature history to date. It provides an opportunity to understand whether climatic anomalies, such as the summer heat wave in 2010, are a sign of future changes in the planet's climate. Until now, reliable temperature statistics were available only for the period up to 100 years ago, which is not enough for accurate conclusions.

Scientists now know that the summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than the summers for at least 95% of the years before. In addition, in the last 100 years, there has been a high rate of increase in summer temperature, which nevertheless remains constant and does not increase abruptly. Events such as the hot summer in 2010 are in good agreement with the increase in mean summer temperature. It turns out that temperature anomalies were not a unique event - with an increase in the average temperature, the probability of extreme events will increase all the time.

Currently, scientists are working to improve the resolution of their model, that is, they collect data not only on seasonal temperatures, but also on weekly and even daily ones. This will make the statistical model even more accurate and help to find climate trends in small time intervals.

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