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Solar flare prediction

31.08.2012

Scientists at Purdue University may have discovered a new method for predicting solar flares more than a day before they occur. In this way, early warning of danger can be obtained and satellites, astronauts and Earth's infrastructure can be protected from potentially dangerous radiation. The new warning system analyzes differences in gamma radiation that is emitted when atoms of radioactive elements decay. This decay rate is believed to be constant, but recent research results cast doubt on this claim.

Scientists have put forward a hypothesis that the rate of radioactive decay changes under the influence of solar activity, possibly due to the flow of subatomic neutrino particles from the Sun. This was hinted at when, in 2006, researchers found that the decay rate of a radioactive sample changed little in the 39 hours before the onset of a large solar flare. Since then, scientists have carefully studied similar changes in the rate of decay before and after solar flares, as well as during the rotation of the Earth around the Sun, the rotation of the Sun itself, and fluctuations in solar activity.

The results of work in two different laboratories showed clear annual changes in the rate of decay of radioactive isotopes of chlorine-36. At the same time, the highest decay rate was observed in January and February, the lowest - in July and August. Observational data from July 2005 to June 2011 were used. The annual fluctuations are explained simply: when the Earth is further away, it receives fewer solar neutrinos and the decay rate slows down a bit. When the Earth approaches the Sun or there is a solar flare, the number of neutrinos increases and decay accelerates.

It should be noted that the role of neutrinos in this phenomenon is only a hypothesis. Since neutrinos have virtually no mass and charge, physicists believe that they do not interact with other particles. So other, unknown particles can also be the reason for fluctuations in the decay rate.

This discovery allows the development of a new method for predicting solar flares. At the same time, there is no need to launch expensive equipment into space - the corresponding detector can be built on Earth.

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