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There will be no catastrophe from global warming

20.03.2012

Studying the rocks on the shores of Bermuda and the Bahamas, Columbia University scientists Maureen Raimo and Jerry Mitrovica managed to significantly underestimate one of the dangers of current global warming associated with melting ice and, accordingly, rising sea levels.

It is well known that ocean levels are now steadily rising. Since 1880, it has grown by 21 centimeters, and today it adds about 2,5 centimeters every ten years. However, no one really knows what will happen, say, by the year 2100, regarding which forecasts are mainly made. Until now, a variety of figures have been called on this score, sometimes simply catastrophic. The coastal cliffs of Bermuda and the Bahamas are interesting primarily because they are imprinted with traces of a very strong global warming that happened 400 thousand years ago. A layer of sedimentary bottom rocks is located there 21 meters above the current sea level. From this, in 1999, it was concluded that it was to such a terrible height that the ocean rose at that time due to the melting of polar ice.

Reimo and Mitrovica tweaked this script. They claim that the tectonic plates over which ice accumulates sink under its weight, rising, respectively, along the edges, and the islands located on these edges rise with them. During warming, the ice melts, their load no longer presses on the plates, and they return to their places, and the grown islands sink again. The Bahamas and Bermuda are exactly where the rise and fall of the plates occurs due to the ice accumulated at the pole. Given this effect, climatologists have calculated that in fact the ocean level 400 thousand years ago rose not by 20, but by 13-16 meters.

This amendment has far-reaching implications. Such a rise, according to the calculations of Raimo and Mitrovica, meant that during this crazy warming, the main water contribution was made by the melting ice of Greenland and West Antarctica, while the contribution of East Antarctica, where there is eight times more ice, turned out to be very insignificant.

Scientists are well aware of how sensitive West Antarctica and Greenland are to climate change, but they know very little about East Antarctica, which is why their forecasts differ so much. Now we can safely say that the ice of East Antarctica will not take part in the current global warming, which means that the most catastrophic scenarios can be discarded. Of course, sea level rise at the end of the century will not seem like paradise to residents of coastal cities, but water Armageddons should not be expected either.

<< Back: Everyone can develop echolocation in themselves 20.03.2012

>> Forward: Green energy will cause a crisis of rare metals 19.03.2012

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