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If aliens exist, we will know about them in the next 20 years

04.11.2004

This is the opinion of Seth Shostak, astronomer, senior researcher at the Institute of Extraterrestrial Civilizations (USA). He tried to estimate the possible number of civilizations capable of transmitting radio signals in our Galaxy and came to the conclusion that there could be from 10 thousand to a million.

There are about 100 billion stars in the galaxy. Shostak figured out how quickly, with existing and under construction radio telescopes, we could listen to their surroundings and how quickly our computers would be able to analyze the received radio signals and identify suspicious ones among them.

At the same time, he proceeded from the assumption that the computing power of computers will double every 2015 months until 18, as has been the case for the past 40 years, and then its growth will slow down and doubling will occur only every 36 months. In this case, it will be possible to complete the "examination" of the Galaxy in search of radio signals of artificial origin in 20 years.

However, not all experts agree with these calculations. They point out that all estimates of the possible number of civilizations in the universe are based, in turn, on shaky estimates - what proportion of stars planets have, how many of the planets life can develop, where its evolution can reach the appearance of intelligence, and so on.

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